Week 17 Fantasy advice for Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and others

The Carolina Panthers will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for any Panthers and Buccaneers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.

Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.

Baker Mayfield, QB

It’s easy to look back and see an underwhelming Baker Mayfield game against these Panthers in a narrow Week 13 overtime win (235 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions), but I’m fine writing it off.

In the three games since, Mayfield has a 71.2% completion rate and a 9.1% touchdown rate. He continues to add just enough with his legs to make an impact (79 rushing yards in those games).

When you consider that he’s been better at home than on the road this year (17 touchdown passes in front of his home fans with at least 19 fantasy points in four of his last five such games), I think we’re looking at a top-10 quarterback in this week that I would be more comfortable playing than Jared Goff or Jordan Love.

The Panthers are the second most vulnerable defense in terms of deep completion percentage this season (55.2%), and with a few vertical threats, I expect Tampa Bay to consistently pick that wound.

Mayfield’s final line last week was strong (303 passing yards with another 42 on the ground and two scores through the air), and he might have given you another 7.8 points if Jalen McMillan hadn’t wrested a 46-yard touchdown away from him in last minute.

Bryce Young, QB

Updated at 11:30 a.m. ET Sunday, December 29
Young is active for today’s game

Bryce Young is a work in progress. Next season will be a big one for his development, but there is no doubt that breadcrumbs have been laid.

In Weeks 12-16, he has not one, not two, but three top-12 finishes. That’s a fun fact in itself, and it only wins when you consider that Patrick Mahomes, CJ Stroud and Kyler Murray have three such completions over that stretch combined.

He was unimpressive from a rate standpoint in the first meeting this season with the Bucs (6.5 yards per pass and a 2.2% touchdown rate), but he was able to put up a nice stat line thanks to overtime ( 298 yards and a touchdown).

Young comes with a wide weekly range of results and limited consistency. Next season could be interesting, but so far only two-QB/Superflex leagues are concerned about him in a meaningful way.

Chuba Hubbard, RB

Updated at 11:30 a.m. ET Sunday, December 29
Hubbard is on IR and done for the season with a calf strain

Chuba Hubbard shined again last week, clearing 160 scrimmage yards for the third time this season. He has more top-10 finishes at the position this season than Derrick Henry, a result I certainly did not see coming.

He’s Carolina’s best chance for success, and that’s why you play him. Volume seems to be about as secure as any RB in the league, so I’m willing to overlook a Week 13 dud in this exact matchup. In that game, his 12 carries yielded 43 yards and he was unable to pull off a 10+ yard gain.

That has very much been the exception, not the norm in 2024. You play Hubbard even if you’d rather not see the Panthers as a whole.

Bucky Irving, RB

Irving is the Buccaneers’ leading running back and has worked his way into the shell-start level at the position. We’ve seen this offense support two top-20 running backs since Week 10, and while it’s optimistic to predict that continuing, Irving should have no problem living up to his end of the bargain as a heavy favorite against a team , he drove. for 152 yards and a touchdown against in Week 13.

I mentioned this Week 10 stat – if you simply give Irving 32% of Rachaad White’s production during that window, he would average 22.6 PPR points per game. game.

Saquon Barkley is fantasy’s RB1 this season at 22.4 PPG. However, that may be too low if you currently see Irving for 2025.

Rachaad White, RB

It seems the time is finally here. The Buccaneers have succumbed to Fantasy Football Twitter and finally optimized their backfield.

OK, so that’s probably not an accurate depiction of what was going on here, but if last week is any indicator of what’s to come, we’re finally getting what we want out of the Tampa Bay run game.

In the disappointing loss to the Cowboys, Bucky Irving outscored Rachaad White 16-3, with White catching seven of the eight passes thrown. We made it!

White didn’t do much against the Panthers in Week 13 until he doubled his rushing total with a long rush in overtime to set up the game-winning field goal. His placement depends entirely on how you think this game plays out.

I believe the Bucs are rolling, and if they are, White’s managers will be swimming upstream. I have Irving ranked as a strong RB2, while White is more of a mediocre Flex option, understanding that I expect a more grounded offense for the Bucs in the second half.

Jalen Coker, WR

Since returning to action, Jalen Coker has played over 83% of the snaps in both of his games and his numbers look fine in those games. Don’t forget the 83-yard touchdown against Dallas in Week 15, though.

Without the passing game, one that you can’t count on in any offense, let alone this version of the Panthers, Coker has turned 10 targets into 35 yards. There could be a world where he becomes Carolina’s receiver of the future and Bryce Young’s star rises.

Perhaps.

You don’t have to bet on that to finish this season. It’s not going to cost you much to speculate on him this summer, and there will be roster building where I go in that direction, but it’s a strategic thing that we can dive into further as this season progresses. the books.

Mike Evans, WR

Updated at 11:30 a.m. ET Sunday, December 29
Evans is active for today’s game.

Evans has cleared 135 air yards in three of his last four games, and while the Jalen McMillan breakout appears to be here, it hasn’t done much to slow down Tampa Bay’s WR1.

Evans has seen 14 end zone targets this season, the ninth time he’s hit that mark; he needs 182 yards over the next two weeks to lock up his 11th straight 1,000-yard campaign.

There are no worries for this week, as the Panthers are allowing deep touchdown passes at the fifth-highest rate and couldn’t slow down Evans in the Week 13 meeting (8-118-1). In that contest, Baker Mayfield completed five of his eight deep passes, and since Evans was the favorite to be on the other end of those bombs, there’s a chance he’ll reach the 1,000-yard plateau by the end of the week. .

Xavier Legette, WR

Updated at 11:30 a.m. ET Sunday, December 29
Legette is active for today’s game

Xavier Legette will be more than a funny accent and interesting eating habits, but not yet.

Through his last seven games played with teammate Jalen Coker active, he has turned 156 routes into just 148 receiving yards. There were some interesting scores on him earlier this season, but they have disappeared of late. Over his last five games, he has been targeted on just 10.3% of his red zone routes.

Citing “Carolina red-zone trips” is a problem in itself given the small nature of it, and if Legette’s share is underwhelming, there’s no real reason to hold on to him even if his status were to swing in a positive direction (groin) , something that Dave Canales seemed terribly non-committal at Monday’s practice.

You can move on in realignment spots, but I’ll keep his name in the back of my mind in 2025.

Jalen McMillan, WR

This is a safe place, right?

Is Jalen McMillan ready to become what we wanted Tank Dell to be?

That is, an explosive player who shows signs of promise as a rookie and plays it into a weekly starter role in fantasy circles during Year 2?

McMillan has three straight games with at least four catches and a touchdown reception — over the past 20 years, only three rookies have topped that streak (Odell Beckham Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tank Dell). There was an 11.6-point swing that occurred late in the game last week where a potential 46-yard TD was wrestled away from him, but the 5-57-1 stat line was still very productive and it’s clearly he has Baker Mayfield’s trust.

The Bucs need a big performance, and if the shallow Panthers choose to cover Mike Evans, a career day from McMillan is certainly within the reach of results.

Adam Thielen, WR

Updated at 11:30 a.m. ET Sunday, December 29
Thielen is active for today’s match.

Adam Thielen has caught 5+ passes in all four games this month and has scored in three of his past six, but he has just two games this season with 60+ receiving yards. Rat numbers look good across the board and this matchup is inviting. But can you really trust a Bryce Young weapon with your championship on the line?

Thielen posted an 8-99-1 line in the Week 13 meeting, and none of it was a fluke. Young looked his way and hit him on a 25-yard pass to send the game into overtime. The game itself was encouraging and follows season-long trends. The Bucs allow the second most yards per game. slot pass attempts in the league this season.

The downside of this offense as a whole prevents me from elevating Thielen to my top 30 at the position, but he’s safely tucked inside the top 40 and can flex with more confidence in leagues that weight receptions/yards more heavily than touchdowns.

Cade Otton, TE

Updated at 11:30 a.m. ET Sunday, December 29
Otton was ruled out on Friday

Cade Otton sat out last week with a knee injury and Baker Mayfield suffered. He suffered so much that he threw for north of 300 yards with a pair of touchdowns and completed 72.1% of his passes.

I’ll keep saying it: Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field, nor does he impact the direction of this unit in a meaningful way. It really is that simple. I write a million words a week and I’ll keep copying that intro until the higher ups tell me no one is eating the Ottonian part of this article.

With Mike Evans on the field in 2024:

• Goal share of 14.1% on the field
• 19.5% target rate for red zone
• 4.3 aDOT

Without Mike Evans on the pitch in 2024:

• 21.1% goal share on the field
• 30% red zone target rate
• 7.3 aDOT

Otton hauled in a pass on Tampa Bay’s second drive in Week 15, a blowout win over the Chargers, and guess what?

I didn’t blink, and neither should you. I’m a selfish person and I can’t fade a player I’m not betting on, so I’ve started betting on his wonder on receptions lately to take advantage of the massive hype. I increased his total as low as my sportsbooks would allow me.

Unless you’re playing in a point-per-snap league, Otton’s status prior to Week 17 isn’t one to worry about.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE

The potential is there for Ja’Tavion Sanders to develop alongside Bryce Young, and that will have my attention in preparation for the 2025 redraft. I think there is a lot to like in the rookie season, but not with your season on the line after consecutive goose eggs.

This season, just one of his 271 routes has resulted in an end-zone score. With seven instances where a single-digit field goal share was posted (zero goals on 21 routes in Week 16), the floor is too low to attract serious interest as a streaming candidate.