Fade Cincinnati Bengals in ‘Must-Win’ vs. Denver Broncos Saturday in NFL Week 17

A well-known professional sports bettor, whose name escapes me, once said, “If you’re in a ‘must-win’, you must not be that good”. Well, that one Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) are in a “must-win” when they host Denver Broncos (9-6) at Paycor Stadium on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET. Entering Week 17, Denver is the seventh and final seed in the AFC playoff picture, and Cincy is 10th.

The Broncos clinch a playoff spot with a win over the underdog Bengals or Kansas City Chiefs next week. To make the playoffs, Cincinnati needs to win Saturday and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18, plus the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins lose once.

I initially planned to bet the Bengals at this spot. Cincy QB Joe Burrow would be in the NFL MVP discussion if they won a few of the coin-flip results they lost earlier this season. Denver rookie QB Bo Nix cost me a ton of money while playing for the Auburn Tigers in college and I haven’t bet on him this year.

The Denver Broncos visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday in NFL Week 17 at Paycor Stadium in Ohio. (Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Photos)

But then I remembered the saying I used in my intro and dug further into this matchup. I managed to fade the Broncos last week in their 34-27 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers because Denver was overrated after a couple of luck-box covers. That’s why I thought the Broncos were this lucky team, and Cincinnati’s bad luck this year has been publicized.

Best Bet: Denver Broncos +3.5 (-118) at DraftKings

However, that is not correct. Sure, Denver covered a few games it should have barely won or lost outright. Nevertheless, the Broncos are 1-5 in one-score games and the Bengals are 2-7. So if you flip those coin-flip scores, Denver would be 13-2 and Cincinnati would be 12-3.

Also, the Broncos have 9.7 “expected wins” based on net efficiency vs. the 28th hardest schedule, per Pro Football Focus. Cincy has 8.2 “expected wins” vs. the 27th hardest schedule. The Bengals can make excuses, but they just aren’t that good. They are number 28 in points per tackles allowed, and the Broncos have better underlying metrics. Albeit a little.

Denver also has a significant edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and on-field performance is one of the most predictable things in football. Per ESPN, the Broncos rank eighth or better in pass protection, run blocking, pass rush and run stop gain. Cincinnati is 21st or worse in those four metrics.

The Denver Broncos celebrate a defensive stop against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. (Vincent Carchietta-Imagn photos)

Again, because Nix cost me so much money in college football from 2019-21 and I don’t think he’ll be a long-term franchise quarterback, Denver +3 is my least favorite pick in Week 17 of the Circa Million VI NFL Handicap contest . That being said, due to Christmas and a tough Week 17, I am forced to drop my stubbornness and back the Broncos.

Prediction: Cincinnati 30, Denver 28

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