Colorado vs. BYU score prediction by expert football model

Colorado and BYU square off in the 2024 Alamo Bowl in a matchup between Big 12 rivals. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that predicts results and picks winners.

Colorado may have college football’s worst-performing rushing offense, but its vertical game led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders is one of the nation’s most potent, and has led to this team winning nine games and nearly playing into Big 12 title contention in this season.

It will be the last time we see Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter on the field in Colorado uniforms as both look to enter the NFL Draft this spring.

BYU was perfect through nine games, but two close losses by a combined nine points doomed their Big 12 and College Football Playoff aspirations.

Colorado and BYU have played each other just twice since the 1947 season and 12 times overall, with the Buffaloes holding an 8-3-1 lead in the entire series over the Cougars.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Buffs and Cougars meet in the postseason?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Colorado and BYU compare in college football’s Alamo Bowl game.

Notably, the models don’t side with the Buffaloes in this game, instead giving a slight edge to the Cougars in an anticipated upset special.

SP+ predicts that BYU will defeat Colorado by a projected score of 29 to 25 and will win the game by a projected margin of 3.2 points.

The model gives the Cougars a narrow 58 percent chance of outright victory over the Buffaloes.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Colorado is a 2.5-point favorite against BYU, according to the updated betting lines submitted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total as 54.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And that put the moneyline odds for Colorado at -152 and for BYU at +126 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

Most players take the other view and expect the Buffaloes to handle the Cougars when looking at the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Colorado gets 60 percent of bets to come through as the favorite, win the game by at least one field goal and cover that narrow point spread.

The other 40 percent of bets project BYU will either beat the Buffs in an upset or keep the final margin under three points in a loss.

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The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Predictions of rankings and scores are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and matches, using a combination of key analytics, including results to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruitment and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked in order of talent as in other rankings, but by one expected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral pitch.

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When: Sat 28 December
Where: San Antonio, Tex.

Time: 7:30 PM Eastern
TV: ABC network

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The odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and would like help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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