Arkansas vs. Texas Tech score prediction by expert football model

Arkansas and Texas Tech will meet in the 2024 edition of the Liberty Bowl game. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that predicts results and picks winners.

Arkansas will be a little short-handed in the game after losing a bunch of players to the football transfer portal and four other key players are out preparing for the NFL Draft, including lead back Ja’Quinden Jackson, who scored 15 touchdowns in the SEC’s second-best offense.

Texas Tech will be without wideout Josh Kelly, who had over 1,000 yards receiving this year, as he prepares for the draft, but should have rusher Tahj Boyd, who ran for 1,505 yards and 17 touchdowns this season.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Razorbacks and Red Raiders meet?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Arkansas and Texas Tech compare in college football’s Liberty Bowl game.

As it often does, the model favors the SEC team over its Big 12 challenger, but by a closer margin than other bowl games.

SP+ predicts that Arkansas will defeat Texas Tech by a projected score of 32 to 26 and will win the game by a projected margin of 5.8 points.

The model gives the Razorbacks a 64 percent chance of outright victory over the Red Raiders.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Texas Tech is a 1.5-point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel put the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And that put the moneyline odds for Texas Tech at -114 and Arkansas at -105 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

A slight majority of players are taking the Red Raiders over the Razorbacks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas Tech gets 56 percent of bets to win the game and cover the point spread.

The other 44 percent of bets project Arkansas will either win outright in an upset or keep the game to a single point in a loss.

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Most other analytical football models also favor the Razorbacks over the Red Raiders.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Arkansas is the narrow favorite in the game according to the index, coming out ahead in 56.1 percent of computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Texas Tech as the presumed winner in the remaining 43.9 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Arkansas is projected to be 2.1 points better than Texas Tech on the same field in both teams’ current makeups, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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When: Fri. 27 Dec
Where: Memphis, Tenn.

Time: 7:00 PM Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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The odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and would like help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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