Here are the NFL playoff prospects, scenarios

On By Littum

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The Green Bay Packers know they are in the NFL playoffs with a win Monday night vs New Orleans Saints.

But there are other factors that determine where the Packers land in the NFL playoff picture. And there is a very unlikely scenario where they don’t make the playoffs at all.

Here’s what you need to know:

What does the NFC playoff picture look like today?

Here are the current NFC playoff seeds if the season ended today:

  1. Detroit Lions (13-2), NFC North winner
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), NFC East winner
  3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6), NFC West winner
  4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7), NFC South winner
  5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2), first wild card team
  6. Green Bay Packers (10-4), second wild-card team
  7. Washington Commanders (10-5), third wild card team

There is still a big concern on the horizon for the Packers

Green Bay’s chances of making the playoffs are 99% and with no chance left to win the NFC North, the Packers will hit the road as a wild-card team in the postseason.

But potentially the biggest issue for the Packers is staying ahead of Washington, which is 10-5 and a half game behind 10-4 Green Bay. The Commanders own the tiebreaker between the two teams, thanks to the teams’ records in NFC play.

Falling to no. 7 would almost certainly require a team to beat both Philadelphia and Detroit to advance to the NFC Championship, a tall order for any team.

As no. 5 or no. 6 seed, Green Bay would face the relatively easier challenge of either the NFC South champion (Atlanta if the season ended today) or the NFC West champion (Los Angeles if the season ended today) before meeting either Detroit or Philadelphia in divisional round.

What must the Packers do to be ahead of the Commanders?

The Packers need to match the Commanders’ results in their last three games.

After Monday night’s game against New Orleans, Green Bay is at Minnesota (13-2) on Sunday and at home against Chicago (4-11) at a time and date to be determined the following weekend.

Washington just defeated Philadelphia, hosts Atlanta (8-7) on Sunday and finishes at Dallas (7-8).

So the Packers may need to win to stay ahead of the Commanders and keep the No. the 6 seed.

Can the Packers catch the Vikings for the No. 5 seed?

Yes, it is possible for Green Bay to move into the first wild card spot – by winning out and making Minnesota lose.

Both teams would have 13-4 and the Packers would have the tiebreaker. That would mean the Vikings would not only lose to the Packers on Sunday, but lose to the Lions the following weekend.

Bypassing Minnesota wouldn’t necessarily change the playoff picture much; if the Vikings and Packers held on to the 5 and 6 seeds, they would each get either the NFC South or NFC West champion.

However, given that both the Vikings and Packers are strong teams, you can’t rule out a matchup of these two in the NFC Championship Game, which in that case would be played at the home of the 5 seed.

Could the Packers miss the playoffs?

The 1% scenario where the Packers are out of the playoffs is if they lose and both Atlanta and Tampa Bay win their last two games.

All three teams would be 10-7, Atlanta would be the NFC South winner and Tampa Bay would hold the tiebreaker over Green Bay for a playoff spot.

Atlanta is at Washington on Sunday and hosts Carolina the following weekend. Tampa Bay hosts Carolina on Sunday and hosts New Orleans the following weekend.