Red Sox Trade Predicted as $500M Slugger ‘Not Close’ to Staying with Team

He’s not even a free agent, but Toronto Blue Jays 25-year-old first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still one of the biggest names in offseason talk. Guerrero has been heating up as a topic just in the last few days after he gave one interview for Abriendo Sports where he made an eye-opening revelation.

Guerrero has only the 2025 season remaining in his commitment to the Blue Jays. He is projected to win an arbitration award on a one-year, $28.8 million contract after winning over the Blue Jays in arbitration valued at $19.9 million before last season.

In the Dec. 22 interview, Guerrero revealed that the Blue Jays had extended him a multi-year contract extension offer, but “What they offered me is not even close to what I’m looking for,” he said. according to journalist Héctor Gómezwho translated Guerrero’s statement from Spanish on his X account (formerly Twitter).

So what is the Blue Jays superstar looking for? In the interview, he strongly hinted that he would receive a contract offer similar to the mega-deals the New York Mets bestowed upon Juan Soto earlier in December and Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers last year.

Guerrero said the Blue Jays are offering that he rejected was about $340 million over several years, although he did not specify how many.

“My numbers changed thanks to Juan Soto,” Guerrero said in the interview, which translated by Gómez. “Shohei Ohtani changed the system for Soto, and Soto changed the system for me.”

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Soto received a 15-year, $765 million deal from the Mets. Ohtani got $700 million over 10 years (although he agreed to defer all but $2 million of his $70 million annual paycheck for another decade). Estimates from baseball insiders of Guerrero’s final contract tops out around $500 million, though some see him reaching $600 million — a huge sum, but still far from the paydays of Soto and Ohtani.

Is Guerrero really worth a contract in the Soto-Ohtani series? Not based on a comparison of his stats to these two historically talented players. Guerrero’s on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS (which combines those two numbers) are all significantly lower than Soto’s.

The gap with Ohtani is even more glaring. Despite playing just 41 fewer games in his career than the National League’s 2024 MVP, Guerrero’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total (21.5) less than half of Ohtani’s (43.8).

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Given that Guerrero and the Blue Jays seem far apart and that the four-time All-Star set a deadline on the first full day spring training – February 20 – to complete negotiations, Toronto has no choice but to cut ties with its superstar via trade before he hits free agency after the 2025 season.

The team that takes Guerrero would need the financial capacity to handle his contract demands, and would also need the ability to send back a player who can replace Guerrero in the Blue Jays lineup.

The one team with a young power-hitting first baseman still under team control would be the Boston Red Sox, and their 24-year-old first bagger Triston Casas. At a rate of one homer every 20 plate appearances, Casas has thus far gone yard more frequently than Guerrero, who is averaging one homer every 22.1 plate appearances.

Depending on how talks between Guerrero and the Blue Jays progress, a Casas-for-Guerrero trade could soon become the hot topic of this offseason.

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