Here’s how the Vikings could land the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the NFL playoffs

MINNEAPOLIS — There may have been no more surprising teams in the NFL this season than the Minnesota Vikings.

With departure from Kirk Cousinsthe arrival of Sam Darnoldan overhaul of the defense and a loaded division, many expected this to be a rebuilding year for Minnesota. Instead, the Vikings are 12-2 and firmly in the race for the NFC’s no. 1 overall seed at home.

The Detroit Lions, also 12-2, currently lead the NFC North and hold the No. 1 seed thanks to a Week 7 win over the Vikings. The 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles are also fighting for the top spot in the NFC. The NFL currently gives the Vikings an 18% chance to earn the top seed, with the Eagles at 30% and the Lions leading the pack with a 52% chance.

So how can the Vikings come out on top and earn a bye and home field advantage? It’s actually pretty straightforward.

If the Vikings win their remaining three games, they are in a good position to win the No. 1 seed no matter what the Eagles or Lions do.

It’s a tough row to pick, though. Two of their remaining three games are on the road — Seattle in Week 16 and Detroit in Week 18 — and all three are against likely playoff teams (Seahawks, Packers, Lions).

They could get a break against the Seahawks, who may start backup quarterback Sam Howell after starter Geno Smith left the team’s loss to the Packers with an injury.

The Vikings host the Packers at US Bank Stadium already hit them on the road this season.

Injuries have absolutely decimated the Lions’ defense, so if the Vikings’ offense can score points and the defense can earn a few stops, that game isn’t out of reach, despite being on Detroit’s home field.

By winning out, the Vikings would finish 15-2 and necessarily have a better record than the Lions when the two teams play each other in Week 18. The Lions would finish 14-3 and earn a wild card berth.

If the Eagles also finish 15-2, the No. 1 seed would come down to tiebreakers, the first of which is head-to-head record. Since the Vikings and Eagles did not play each other this season, it is not relevant.

Then we go to the conference win percentage. If both teams win, they will finish with identical 10-2 records against the NFC.

On to the next one, which is win percentage in regular games. Philadelphia and Minnesota have four common opponents this season – the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams would be 5-1 against common opponents, so this won’t decide things either.

On we go to strength of wins in all games, which simply means the combined record of all the teams that the Vikings and Eagles have each defeated. This one is harder to calculate because there are still three weeks left in the season. While the Eagles currently hold the tiebreaker here, the Vikings would likely get the edge at season’s end due to their remaining schedule. Minnesota plays the Seattle Seahawks (currently 8-6), Packers (10-4) and Lions (12-2), while Philadelphia plays the Washington Commanders (9-5), Dallas Cowboys (6-8) and Giants (2- 12).

That’s a lot of words to say something relatively simple: To give yourself a shot at no. 1 seed, the Vikings must win. Of course, there are unlikely scenarios where they could drop a game or two and still finish on top. But head coach Kevin O’Connell’s side are probably thrilled to be in control of their own destiny this late in the season.

It has already been a season for the Vikings. How memorable it will be remains to be seen.