Notre Dame plays USC with College Football Playoff revenge on its mind

On By Littum

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Nearly three months have passed since Notre Dame’s 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois, still one of the most stunning results of the season, and each passing week has made two things clear:

One, that the result was an aberration. Notre Dame has won nine straight games since, all but one by double digits.

And second, that despite playing an easier schedule than most Power Four contenders still in the College Football Playoff picture, the No. 5 Fighting Irish rightfully earned a spot on the doorstep of a playoff bid heading into Saturday’s regular season finale against Southern California.

They got some help. A top-heavy ACC and major shakeups in the SEC and Big 12 have opened a path for Notre Dame to potentially make an at-large appearance even with a loss to the Trojans, though that would bring the mid-major strength of schedule into even sharper focus.

“I’ve always said it’s up to each and every one of you to interpret the message that’s been sent,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said of the playoff debate after last Saturday’s 49-14 win against Army.

“There is one goal on Saturday and that is to achieve team glory. The way you prepare gives you the best opportunity to do so. That is the message that I want our players to understand. We prepare the right way, continue to find ways to lift and improve and hopefully you will get a result like we got tonight. I don’t worry about the message it sends to everybody else as much as I worry about the message it sends to this team and our program.”

The stakes are obvious: Win and you’re in. Lose and open yourself up to the possibility of dropping out of the field entirely. What happens against the Trojans will make or break Notre Dame’s season and shape the still-unsettled perception of Freeman’s tenure.

“Our guys will understand the challenge ahead of us,” Freeman said.

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Notre Dame’s playoff prospects

Televisions inside Notre Dame’s football facility this week have been playing the 2022 loss to USC on a loop, as a reminder of “what that feeling was a few years ago,” wide receiver Beaux Collins said.

“All the plays are almost rote and stuff,” Collins said. “Let’s not forget how big a game this is.”

This game in 2022 — the Irish gave up 436 yards of offense and lost 38-27 — is emblematic of Freeman’s tenure to this point, which has been defined less by wins than a string of painful, often avoidable losses. Northern Illinois is this year’s example. That 2022 season also included hard-to-believe losses to Marshall and Stanford.

The Irish are touchdown favorites against USC, which sealed bowl eligibility with last week’s win against UCLA. The Trojans have made strides defensively under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn but have been uncharacteristically weak on offense, leading to this month’s quarterback change to former backup Jayden Maiava.

“They’re very talented,” Lynn said of Notre Dame. “Their offensive line will probably be the best offensive line we’ve played all year. Both of their backs are very good backs. They’ve got big tight ends. They’ve got speed on the outside.”

Notre Dame and no. 4 Penn State is the only two teams entering Saturday guaranteed to lock up a playoff spot with a win. No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Ohio State is already projected into the field regardless of how the regular season ends the next two weeks. Team as no. 8 Tennessee and no. 10 Indiana is also in good shape, although there are scenarios that could unfold and complicate matters for the Volunteers and Hoosiers.

Although a loss to USC would be only Notre Dame’s second, it could open up an at-large bid for another ACC team or a fourth team from the SEC should No. 13 Alabama beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl or No. 14 South Carolina win the rivalry against No. 12 Clemson.

“Yeah, the things we’ve done in the past have given us an opportunity to be in this moment where we’re playing for a game that, yeah, if we win, we’re in,” Freeman said. “That’s what they say. You win, you’re in.”

A reputation-making moment for Marcus Freeman

The subplot heading into Saturday is Freeman’s chance to change the narrative surrounding his three-year run, which even amid Notre Dame’s torrid nine-game streak since September continues to be defined by a series of missed opportunities.

“We’re going to have to be at our best on Saturday,” offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock said. “They are very, very capable of playing Championship level football. We have to rise to that challenge and be ready to go.”

This is not a moment the program has handled well under Freeman. Since he took over, Notre Dame has lost two games against Ohio State, for example, and missed those chances to deliver a reputation-building win. The Irish have also struggled on the road with a 7-4 mark in true road games during the regular season.

Losing to the Trojans would add to the simmering unrest over the program’s inability to get over the hump and back into the playoffs. Notre Dame reached the national semifinals twice with another New Year’s Six bid in former coach Brian Kelly’s last four seasons.

In addition to likely earning a home game in the opening round of the playoffs, a win on Saturday could vault the Irish back into the Bowl Subdivision’s upper elite crust. Once in the playoffs, Notre Dame’s performance since September could make this a trendy pick to go deep into the postseason and potentially capture the program’s first national championship since 1988.

The Irish have outscored their last nine opponents by more than 30 points per game with only one win, against Louisville, decided by single digits.

“If you don’t understand how good this opponent is, you don’t understand how much of a challenge this opponent will bring on Saturday, then the fault is in yourself,” Freeman said.

“That’s what I’m going to continue to remind our guys. But there are things we’ve done on purpose to put our program in this position. So understand the challenge in front of us on Saturday and continue to put in the work today that gives us a chance to get the result we want on Saturday.”