Last Call Snowfall forecast for Thursday night – Friday’s early winter storm in PA

On By Littum

Temperatures have dropped significantly over the past 18 hours after storms in western PA triggered tornado warnings near Pittsburgh Wednesday night. We are now transitioning into winter weather mode with anything from the first flakes of the season to as much as a foot of snow in PA on Friday.

A coastal low pressure system has developed and will push into southeastern New York State Friday morning, then eastern PA Friday afternoon. That location allows cold air to flow in behind the center, which in this case will be southwest of the low pressure. This puts most of Pennsylvania in the crosshairs for accumulating snow.

The heaviest snowfall will be over higher elevations, in mountainous areas above 1500′ elevation. Snowfall will decrease significantly as you descend into the valleys where temperatures are above freezing and falling (warmer temperatures, less precipitation below the mountains), namely places like the Wyoming Valley and much of the central Susquehanna River Valley.

Final winter storm timing

Rain will change to snow during the late evening hours Thursday in the northeastern quarter of the state. The shift will occur down to about 800′ elevation, with places lower than that, like Wilkes-Barre and Williamsport, seeing a mix of rain and snow in the early hours of Friday morning. Below is the Hi-Res NAM model for Thursday at 21.00.

Friday at By 3-4 AM, snow will fall in most places near and north of I-80. Snowfall rates at this time Friday morning will be heaviest in the northern Poconos, north and east of Scranton. The heavy snow bands will move southwest as upper level lows travel differently than usual coastal lows we see in the winter.

Travel will be very difficult at this time in the northern PA mountains. Speed ​​limits have been reduced to 45 mph for this storm on I-81 and I-84 in northeastern Pennsylvania, and we recommend avoiding travel in the higher elevations outside the Wyoming Valley early Friday morning. Here is the Hi-Res NAM future radar at 03.00 Friday.

The Friday morning commute will be ugly across the Appalachians, with snow spreading across most areas north of I-76 by 6-7 in the morning Friday. Road impacts from the snow will be minimal below 800′ elevation, which includes most valleys throughout the state.

Snow will continue to push south by mid-Friday morning as low pressure approaches the state. The southern PA valleys may briefly start as rain before changing to snow as moderate precipitation moves in. Below is the Hi-Res NAM Future Radar at 7:00 Friday.

By Friday morning as the low pressure pushes closer, snow will cross the state. Temperatures will be in the mid-30s in most places, with only elevations above 2000′ feet at or below freezing. Snow is likely to accumulate only on grassy surfaces in the lowlands. Here is future radar for Friday at 11 a.m.

This is a prolonged storm as you may see now! Snow is expected to fall at a heavy rate in the Laurel Highlands late Friday afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile in the lower plateau of western PA, snow will likely change to rain at this time.

While in central and eastern PA, moderate precipitation rates will result in continued snowfall, but areas of lighter precipitation will likely see rain. Below is future radar for Friday at 4 p.m.

FINAL CALL SNOW FULL FORECAST FOR THURSDAY EVENING – FRIDAY

Area A: Expected snowfall of 8 – 12″. Roads will be impassable Friday morning, causing work and school closures. Heavy snow and high winds may cause sporadic power outages due to downed trees on power lines.

Area B: Expected snowfall of 4 – 8″. Roads will be covered in snow, which will likely cause work and school closings. Isolated power outages are possible.

Area C: Expected snowfall of 2 – 4″. Roads are likely to become snowy or slushy. Work and school delays or cancellations possible.

Area D: Snowfall accumulations of 1 – 2″ are expected on grassy surfaces. Roads are likely to remain wet, with the possibility of slush on untreated surfaces during times of snow.

Area E: Snowfall accumulation of less than 1″ is expected on grassy surfaces only.

Area F: Rain is expected from start to finish.

Don’t forget to share this forecast with friends and family who will be affected!