Falcons vs Broncos predictions, picks and best bets for NFL Week 11

The 6-4 Atlanta Falcons will be looking for a bounce-back performance today when they travel to the Mile High City to face the pesky 5-5 Denver Broncos.

The Broncos defense makes it difficult for any offense to find a rhythm. Mine Falcons vs. Broncos predictions believe one of the running backs for the Falcons will be blank in the passing game.

Find out why I’m projecting a shutout performance in my NFL picks with the game set for 6 p.m. 4:05 PM ET on November 17, live on FOX.

Falcons vs Broncos Prediction

My best bet
Tyler Allgeier Under 0.5 receptions (+120 at BetMGM)

My analysis
The Atlanta Falcons have used two running backs quite effectively this season between Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Robinson has 155 carries with 4.8 yards per carry. attempts, and Allgeier has 85 carries at 5.0 yards per carry. attempt. But when it comes to the passing game, the targets and catches are completely one-sided.

Robinson has been targeted 46 times out of the backfield for 41 catches. Meanwhile, Allgeier has been targeted just eight times for eight catches. He has not conceded a single goal in each of the last three games. That’s despite playing at least 23% of the snaps in each of those contests.

Allgeier has run only 60 routes this season. There are six routes per game, and he ran just four routes in each of the past three games. The Denver Broncos have allowed just 64 targets to players lining up out of the backfield this season. At just 6.4 goals per game, it’s hard to see Allgeier getting one of those over Robinson.

Robinson has run 215 routes this season and ran 28 to Allgeier’s four last week. Robinson also had all 18 targets out of the backfield over the last three weeks for the Falcons. The averages all line up for Robinson to see all six of the projected targets for Atlanta’s backfield.

Falcons vs Broncos parlay in same game

Tyler Allgeier Under 0.5 receptions

Below 44.5

Audric Estime Under 12.5 rushing attempts

To follow our best bet, I will also take Under. The Falcons have played some high-scoring games, but they’ve also played very low-scoring games against good defenses. 28 total points in the Steelers game and 39 total points in the Chiefs game. The Broncos have held seven of their 10 opponents this season under 20 points.

Finally, I’ll add Audric Estime to go under 12.5 rushing attempts. Last week, Estime broke out and looked to take over the lead role out of the backfield with 14 carries for 53 yards. However, Sean Payton is a bit unreliable and will typically roll with the hot hand. I expect Estime to see a heavy workload only if the game script works perfectly and he runs well early. I like the odds of that not happening.

Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Falcons vs Broncos odds

Falcons vs Broncos live odds

Falcons vs Broncos opening odds

• Spread: Atlanta +1.5 (-110) | Denver -1.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Atlanta (+105) | Denver (-125)
• Over/Under: Over 44 (-105) | Under 44 (-115)

Odds provided by BetMGM

Falcons vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis

• The spread was Falcons -3 before the season, but it opened at Broncos -1.5 this week and has been there as of Saturday afternoon.
• The Broncos are a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season as favorites. The Falcons are 1-1 ATS this season as underdogs.
• The total was 44.5 before the season, reopened at the same number, and has been there since Saturday afternoon.
• Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have gone below the total.

Falcons vs Broncos betting trend to know

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Game Total Under in six of their last 10 road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Broncos.

Falcons vs Broncos game information

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Falcons vs Broncos weather

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