Fantasy Football Week 11 Fades: Can You Trust Najee Harris?

On By Littum

Another week, another round of all-important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at six players with bust potential in Week 11.

Something to keep in mind as you read: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.

Kirk Cousins ​​has had a solid start to the season after a torn Achilles ended his 2023 campaign. Through 10 weeks, he ranks as fantasy’s QB10, ranked third in passing yards (2,634) and tied for fourth most touchdown passes (17) – a good fit so far with WRs Drake London and Darnell Mooney, TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson in the passing game.

But his opponent this week, the Broncos, are tied for the third-lowest EPA per. pass attempts (-0.21) while ranking fourth in the league with a 39.2% pressure rate and the second-highest number of sacks in the league (35), behind only the New York Giants. According to PFF, Cousins ​​has had the sixth-highest turnover rate among QBs with 25+ pressured dropbacks this season at 7.3%, yielding 5 TDs and 7 INTs on such plays.

Heat check Kirk Cousins ​​belongs on most fantasy benches this week outside of two-QB and Superflex leagues.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ running game has come alive in recent weeks after a relatively slow start this season, thanks in large part to RB Najee Harris heating up down the stretch (as is typical of him historically).

Unfortunately, there are some reasons to pump the breaks on Harris’ fantasy upside heading into Week 11. Just last week, he snapped a three-game streak of 100+ rushing yards in Week 10 (the first such streak in his career) against a Commanders defense that has been pretty friendly to the run, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. attempted 21 carries.

This week, Harris faces a challenging matchup against the Baltimore Ravens – one of the league’s best defenses through 10 weeks of the season. The Ravens are allowing a league-low 3.4 rush yards per game. game, allowing the fewest runs of 10+ yards, giving up the fewest yards after contact per trials (2.21), while allowing the third lowest EPA per rush attempts -0.18.

Heat check Consider Harris more of a boom/bust, touchdown-dependent fantasy asset this week than a must-start. If Warren is active (currently questionable with a back injury), he warrants consideration as a flex option, especially in full-PPR scoring formats, as long as he’s active.

It’s challenging to imagine losing a running back who has had 20 or more touches in three of his last five games and scored in all but three outings so far in 2024. But with a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 , fantasy football managers should prepare for a boom/bust performance that falls outside of Cook’s typically safe floor.

In Week 11, the Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been right next to the Ravens in terms of their ability to shut down the run this season. They give up 12.01 fantasy points per game, which is low in the league, to opponents. They are the only defense that has given up fewer than 500 rushing yards to opposing backs, allowing the fourth-lowest EPA per game. rush attempts (-0.16) and the second-lowest yards per carry. game average (3.7). Up against a similarly capable rushing defense in the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4, the Bills were wildly outmatched, leaving Cook with just 48 yards on 10 total touches (0 TDs) for an RB44 finish on the day.

Heat check Start Cook as the top running back in a very potent Bills offense that could see plenty of scoring, but be careful that this could be an ineffective spot that could make him a pretty shaky asset this week.

I didn’t need to get very far for this Week 11 draft, but it felt necessary to say just this once – you’re not obligated to start DJ Moore (or any other Bears receiver, for that matter) until this teams find some kind of identity. The team has officially moved on from former OC Shane Waldron, but it will likely take more than a new play-caller to undo the damage done and the regression the offense has seen since coming off their bye week .

Moore is a good wide receiver who many will feel encouraged to start because of his name value, but he has failed to manage more than 33 receiving yards in each of his last four games, finishing outside the top 50 at his position in each of the games. His floor is simply too low to be trusted in even the most dire situations. This week, the Bears will host the Green Bay Packers — a unit that ranks top-10 in average time to pressure and has been one of the most prolific defenses in forcing turnovers (18 total on the year). This could be another ugly one for the entire Bears offense, outside of RB D’Andre Swift.

Heat check Do. Not. Start. I’m begging you.

Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London has thrived with new QB Kirk Cousins, who scored as overall WR4 in fantasy through the first 10 weeks of the season, having amassed the fifth-most receptions (58) and eighth-most receiving yards (649) while ranking third in total touchdowns. That all sounds fine and dandy until you line it up against the notorious Denver Broncos defense. The biggest problem in that defense for London? All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II.

Here’s a look at some of Surtain II’s advanced stats in coverage and where he ranks among CBs to play at least 200 coverage snaps this season:

  • 10% target rate in coverage (second lowest)

  • 0.6 yards per snap allowed (bound least)

  • -0.68 EPA per target (lowest)

  • 57.5 NFL passer rating when targeted (fourth-lowest)

Simply put, Surtain isn’t targeted often in coverage because he’s so effective when opposing QBs try to make it happen. WRs DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson managed just 15.6 fantasy points combined against this defense – thanks in large part to Surtain’s ability to lock down perimeter receivers.

Heat check London isn’t a must-start in Week 11 if you have better options, though most guards probably don’t have the luxury of sitting him. Although Zay Flowers had some success against this defense in Week 10, most of the production came out of the slot, playing a season-low 47.1% of snaps on the perimeter in that game. If London primarily works from the outside, he’s probably lining up for a quiet afternoon.

There aren’t many tight ends you can afford to fade in any given week, but given the current state of Jacksonville’s offense, a warning about a potential drop in production for Evan Engram seems warranted. They’ll be without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence again this week — he’s dealing with a shoulder injury — meaning it’s Mac Jones at the helm once again against the Detroit Lions.

The Lions are allowing the ninth-lowest EPA per dropback on slot + inline targets, giving up plenty of yardage covering those areas of the field, but few scores (4 TD, 6 INT) in such coverage, resulting in the second-fewest fantasy points per game. plays given to opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed just one touchdown to the position all season, which doesn’t bode well for a passing offense that didn’t manage a single passing touchdown last week as Jones totaled just 139 passing yards on 22 attempts while also throwing for two. interceptions.

Heat check Given Engram’s role in the offense as a primary slot target when Christian Kirk is out, you’ll be hard-pressed to find many options you prefer over Engram in this economy. However, it could be a bumpy outing if Engram doesn’t see significant volume.