Tropical Depression becomes Tropical Storm Sara

On November 14, 2024By Littum

Tropical Depression Nineteen has developed in the Caribbean Sea.
It will likely bring a dangerous flood threat to Central America like Tropical Storm Sara.
The forecast beyond Central America is uncertain, but Florida should continue to monitor.

Tropical Depression Nineteen has developed in the Caribbean Sea and is likely to soon become Tropical Storm Sara. The storm will produce a potentially catastrophic flood threat in Central America through the weekend, but its long-term forecast is uncertain.

Latest status: Tropical Depression Nineteen is located 250 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and is tracking west at 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph.

Current satellite

(The icon shows the current center of the system.)

Watches and warnings issued: Tropical storm and hurricane warnings have been issued for parts of Central America in the shaded areas on the map below. A watch means conditions are possible within 48 hours, while a warning means conditions are expected within 36 hours.

Strength, track in the Caribbean: With relatively low wind shear and record warm Caribbean water in mid-Novemberthis system is expected to become a strong tropical storm or possibly a hurricane as it tracks near Central America late this week.

Its Caribbean track scenarios range from a slightly more north-westerly track that stays above the water to hugging the coast or moving inland over Honduras and then into Belize or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. The inland track scenario may eventually lead to the decommissioning of this system, but the prognosis is uncertain.

Current status and forecast path

(The red shaded area indicates the potential path to the center of the tropical cyclone. It is important to note that impacts (especially heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, wind) with any tropical cyclone usually spread out beyond its expected path. )

A hazard regardless of: Future Sara will stall or drift for a few days while near Central America Thursday into this weekend. This slow passage, regardless of its wind intensity, can produce productive rainfall with potentially catastrophic flooding and mudslides, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Up to 30 inches of rain could fall over parts of northern Honduras. Other parts of Central America from Belize to Nicaragua could see up to 15 inches of rainfall from Sara.

How about the Golf next week: Future Sara’s land interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula means that the long-term forecast is highly uncertain.

For now, the National Hurricane Center forecast shows the system could emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm next Tuesday.

Forecast models suggest it would then be pushed east toward Florida on Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front arriving from the Plains and Mississippi Valley. What form Sara takes during that trek could range from a weakened remnant that increases precipitation along the cold front to a still-intact named storm.

Changes in the forecast are likely in the coming days, so interests in the Western Caribbean and Florida should monitor this situation closely. Check back with us on weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates to this forecast in the coming days.

(For even more detailed tracking of weather data in your area, view your 15-minute detailed forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

Typical tropical activity in November

Hurricane season winds down during November, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see storms. This November has already produced Rafael.

In the satellite era – since 1966 – November has produced an average of one storm every one to two years and a hurricane every two to three years.

More often, parts of the Caribbean and Central America have been hit hard by hurricanes in November.

If a storm develops in November, it is usually in the western Caribbean or either the southwest or central Atlantic.

This is because environmental factors are more suitable for development. Wind shear is usually quite low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it this far south, and water temperatures are still quite warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.