NFL picks, props and odds for Week 10 Monday Night Football Dolphins-Rams

On By Littum

An interconference matchup completes Week 10 of NFL action when the Miami Dolphins (2-6) take on the Los Angeles Rams (4-4) at SoFi Stadium. Leading online sportsbooks report that the Rams take more than 80% of spread bets and money in a fast-paced higher-scoring game.

The week started with nine NFL teams having only 2 wins, and now NFL position show six including the Dolphins (five in the AFC) after the Patriots, Panthers and Saints all won as underdogs to claim their third win. Favorites are 8-5 straight up but just 3-10 against the spread (ATS) in Week 10 of the Dolphins-Rams MNF game.

Monday night football odds

Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and best online sportsbooks are updated regularly and subject to change, including on props and live betting. Bet types, odds and betting with listed point spreads on favourites.

Miami Dolphins on Los Angeles Rams (-2.5), Over/Under 48.5 points

Kickoff is at 8:15 PM ET on ABC and ESPN and streamed online on ESPN+ and NFL plus.

Department heads

AFC

AFC division leaders include the Buffalo Bills (8-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2), Houston Texans (6-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (9-0), who remain undefeated after escaping with another win. A blocked short field goal in the final game against the Denver Broncos on Sunday sent Chiefs players and fans into a frenzy.

The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) are just 1/2 game behind the Steelers (7-2) in the AFC North for the closest AFC division race. The Ravens lead the league scorewith an average of 31.8 points per game following their thrilling 35-34 Thursday Night Football victory over the division foe Cincinnati Bengals to start Week 10 action.

NFC

The Philaelphia Eagles (7-2), Detroit Lions (8-1), Atlanta Falcons (6-4) and Arizona Cardinals (6-4) are current NFC division managers. The Lions also escaped Sunday with a 26-23 victory on a last-second 52-yard field goal after trailing the Houston Texans 23-7 at halftime. Another controversial punishment (pass interference) was not called against the Lions on the Texans’ final drive, resulting in a long-missed 58-yard field goal to set up a short field and the Lions’ final drive to win.

Three close division races in the NFC show the Lions (8-1) one game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings (7-2) in the NFC North. The Cardinals (6-4) lead the NFC West by a half game over the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) and LA Rams (4-4) if they win on Monday. The Washington Commanders (7-3) fell a half-game behind the Eagles (7-2) in the NFC East after the Commanders’ 28-27 loss to the Steelers on Sunday with another Week 10 player prop winner announced on Forbes.

Week 11 matchups and odds is published by sportsbooks. The Commanders and Eagles begin action on Thursday, Nov. 14 with a first-place matchup in Philadelphia and the Eagles a 3-point favorite.

Dolphins-Rams Matchups and Props

Bob Stoll from Dr. Bob Sports provides additional matchups and advance stats for the Dolphins-Rams matchup with information you can bet on. The updated damage report and media updates list Dolphins star WR Tyreek Hill (wrist) as a decision on playing time to play.

  • Miami’s offense was a train wreck without Tua Tagovailoa, but they’ve ranked just 14th in EPA per. games with the starting quarterback on the field, which is well below last season when they averaged 0.10 EPA/game (4th).
  • The Dolphins haven’t been able to get WR Tyreek Hill going as he averages nearly 2 yards per carry. route that has been driven less than last year. WR Jaylen Waddle averages 0.59 EPA/target (7th), but this may not be the play for Miami’s wide receiver offense.
  • The Rams surrender a league-high 67% success rate to opposing tight ends and will struggle with TE Jonnu Smith, who has a 66% success rate (2nd).
  • Dolphins RB De’Von Achane averages 0.17 EPA/target (2nd) and the screen game will click against a Rams defense that is worst in the NFL, allowing a 66% success rate to opposing running backs .
  • Los Angeles edge rusher Jared Verse’s 39 pressures are the most by a rookie through the first nine weeks of the season in five years, but he will be shut down by LT Terron Armstead, who ranks third in pass-blocking efficiency.
  • Miami’s defense has a league-high 42% pressure rate, and the Rams will be without starting RT Rob Havenstein, who ranks 20th in pass-blocking efficiency. Backup Warren McClendon is giving up an 11% strike rate. Rams QB Matthew Stafford has thrown 78 passes over the past two games without a sack.
  • Los Angeles leads the NFL with a 78% carry rate, but the Dolphins’ yards per carry. pass plays allowed against motion is a league low 83% compared to no motion from the opposing offense.
  • Miami CB Jalen Ramsey is conceding 0.73 yards per carry. cover-snap (7th), and he will contain WR Cooper Kupp, who is averaging 2.19 yards per carry. route race (11.). WR Puka Nacua will be limited by Dolphins cornerback Kendall Fuller, who allows just 0.66 yards per carry. cover snap (4.).
  • Our model favors the Rams by 2.4 points with a projected total of 53.4.

The Dolphins have lost three straight games since their bye week, despite winning the stat by a net margin of 30 yards per carry. competition. That includes the last two games in which QB Tua Tagovailoa returned from a Week 2 concussion and the Dolphins lost 30-27 and 28-27 to the first-place Bills and Cardinals. The Rams have won 3 straight including 30-20 over the Vikings and last week in Seattle, a 26-20 overtime victory to keep the Rams challenging for an NFC West title.

Player Props and Choices

  • MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa passing yards: Over/Under 244.5
  • LA QB Matthew Stafford Passing Yards: O/U 250.5
  • MIA RB De’Von Achane rushing yards: O/U 56.5, receiver 42.5
  • MIA RB Raheem Mostert rushing yards: O/U 32.5, receiving 7.5
  • LA RB Kyren Williams Rushing Yards: O/U 84.5
  • MIA TE Jonnu Smith receiving yards: O/U 34.5, receptions 3.5
  • LA WR Puka Nacua receiving yards: O/U 67.5, receptions 5.5
  • LA WR Cooper Kupp receiving yards: O/U 66.5, receptions 5.5
  • LA WR Demarcus Robinson receiving yards: O/U 27.5, receiving 2.5

The player props posted on these NFL betting sites at Forbes have scored and cashed in Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9 and Week 10.

Prop bets: Dolphins RB De’Von Archane’s receiving yards prop has been bumped up from O/U 39.5 to 42.5 at FanDuel and even 46.5 at DraftKing’s sportsbook. It shows the discrepancy in numbers and the importance of buy-in numbers and sportsbooks when betting. Can’t afford to bet on that number going up, though many receiving yards props posted here have sailed above the players’ props. Instead, Achane Over 5.5 receptions (+100) is a bet. Achane leads the Dolphins in receptions (37) this season and had 8 and 6 receptions the past two games with Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback. Now, the matchups look even more favorable against the Rams as mentioned above, and especially if Tyreek Hill doesn’t play.

If you bet on the Rams receivers props of Cooper Coup and Puka NacuaKupp has more favorable matchups as the slot receiver with the Dolphins defense allowing the eighth-highest percentage of targets to go to the slot receiver. Puka Nacua under 5.5 receptions is a preferred bet, but another bet of more interest is the Rams TE Colby Parkinson under 18.5 receiving yards. He had no targets or receptions last week against the Seahawks as his usage and play on the field have declined the past two games after also catching two passes for 17 yards against the Vikings and two receptions against the Raiders three games ago. The Rams tight end’s two receptions last game against the Seahawks went to backups. Too many other favorite options for QB Matthew Stafford, and Parkinson’s O/U receptions are just 1.5.

After the Miami-LA Monday Night Football game, the Dolphins return home to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7), while the Rams hit the road in Foxboro to play the New England Patriots (3-7).

More sports betting newsstatistics, MNF player props and information you can bet on as the NFL draws more watch and betting action with player props driving additional engagement, entertainment and interest.

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