Trump’s effect on world politics, explained

The results are not in yet, but if Donald Trump ends up winning the 2024 presidential election and regaining the presidency, he could radically reshape international politics.

Trump has made it very clear on the campaign trail that he believes major changes in US foreign policy are necessary. “We have been treated so badly, mostly by allies … our allies actually treat us worse than our so-called enemies,” Trump told the crowd in September at Wisconsin campaign event. “In the military, we protect them, and then they screw us for trade. We will not let that happen again.”

These are not empty promises. Presidents have wide leeway in terms of foreign policy and can enter into or withdraw many international agreements unilaterally.

“It really varies, deal by deal, as to what the exit criteria are, but there are very few where congressional approval for withdrawal is required,” Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, told Vox.

In his first term, Trump pursued what he called an “America First” foreign policy, which saw him withdraw from major international deals, launch a trade war with China, verbally antagonize allies and attempt complex negotiations with several of America’s adversaries.

This campaign season, he has vowed to continue attempts to dramatically change or otherwise impede international agreements, including the NATO security alliancein ways that could fundamentally weaken America’s place in the global order.

Of Trump’s stated foreign policy positions, his planned protectionist trade policy would likely be the most immediately damaging to Americans; his proposed tariff hikes would trigger a global trade war and drive up prices for American consumers. In the longer term, his ideas about America’s role in international affairs could erode American diplomacy and undermine institutions like NATO and the United Nations. It could have lasting effects on the geopolitical landscape, just as his first-term foreign policy decisions did.

Trump’s isolationist first administration, briefly explained

During his first term, from 2017 to 2021, Trump withdrew the United States from several international agreements, including the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often called the Iran deal. That deal, negotiated in 2015 under President Barack Obama, essentially eased U.S. sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program and allowing greater international oversight of it.

“The Iran deal was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into,” Trump said when the deal was terminated in 2018. Since then, Iran has built up its stockpile of enriched uranium and increased its missile supply, allegedly bringing the program much closer to developing nuclear capabilities — despite the Trump administration’s promise that Iran would never have them.

Trump also pulled the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, which obligates all signatories to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Other diplomatic casualties of the Trump administration include Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), a Cold War pact between the United States and Russia that limits the development of short- and intermediate-range nuclear weapons; the The Open Skies Treatywhich allows signatories to conduct military reconnaissance overflights; and two international migration agreements.

Trump also repeatedly criticized NATO during his first term. He argued that the other countries in the military alliance were not spending enough on defense (and were beginning to spend more), questioned whether the organization was still necessary, and in 2020 pulled nearly 10,000 troops into Germanya decision that Vice President Kamala Harris’ foreign policy adviser Philip Gordon said appeared “designed to send a message about the limits of what Americans are prepared to spend to defend foreign borders and more generally maintain world order.”

What Trump could do in another term

In another period, Trump has promised again to withdraw from international agreements and organizations.

He specifically promised to pull the US out of Paris climate agreements againafter the US re-entered the agreement under President Joe Biden. And Trump could limit US cooperation with UN organizations that his administration was critical of, such as World Health Organization. He has also introduced a number of new tariffs – at times requiring new taxes as high as 20 percent on American trading partners and recently threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico of up to 100 percentUSA’s largest trading partner for goods in 2024.

One partnership that would be difficult for Trump to change is the US agreement with NATO. The NATO Charter does not have a withdrawal mechanism. As Kavanagh explained, “Recently, Congress passed a law specifically targeting NATO that would require congressional approval for withdrawal from NATO,” in an effort to further protect U.S. membership in the alliance.

Even with those protections, there are ways another Trump administration could erode NATO or other US military pacts, such as the one between USA, South Korea and Japan intended to deter China and North Korea.

Trump can decide to change America’s position in any country, whether it’s Asia or in Europe, and just withdraw forces, close bases, stop investing in some kind of common infrastructure and in all the committees and logistical parts that keep a alliance race, which keeps us tied to allies and partners,” Kavanagh said. “Any president could do that.”

But neglecting NATO and alienating those allies isn’t the only way a Trump administration could hurt American foreign policy and diplomacy, according to James Lindsay, a senior fellow in American foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“A lot is going to depend on how he staffs his administration,” Lindsay told Vox. “We don’t have a good sense of who would be a secretary of state, secretary of defense, (or) national security adviser.” The people in these positions can have serious consequences for all kinds of foreign policy decisions, from how (and if) ceasefire negotiations are conducted to which countries receive arms transfers.

In the absence of a robust, experienced diplomatic apparatus, Trump may try to negotiate foreign policy largely on his own, as he has in the past. These attempts had poor results, as then his attempt to negotiate with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ended in 2019 with no guarantees from the North Korean side to stop the development of nuclear weapons and no fundamental change in the relationship. His conversations with Taliban led to the withdrawal of US and NATO forces and the collapse of the civilian government in Afghanistan.

Trump has made big promises about the types of negotiations he would pursue as president — like ending the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours — but as was the case in his first term, the reality is likely to be much more difficult and messier than he has suggested.