Win or lose, the GOP is the party of Trump

On November 6, 2024By Littum

Donald Trump is nearing the start of a new presidency — or the beginning of a post-campaign career that could be filled with prosecutions, lawsuits, legal expenses and political accusations.

The next presidential administration will look dramatically different depending on whether Trump wins or falls on Election Day, but some things are likely to hold true either way.

Trump’s impact on American political life has been profound. Some of the discord, coarseness, controversy and political realignment he has ushered in may disappear if he loses, but much of it may remain in some form, experts say.

Win or lose, Trumpism will have a massive impact on a Republican Party that is very much at a crossroads.

If Trump loses, “there’s going to be a lot of hand-wringing and finger-pointing that’s going to start right away,” said pollster Frank Luntz, who has worked with Republican candidates for decades.

If he wins? An even Trumpier party.

Said Luntz: “Victory has a way of healing all wounds. If Trump wins, the party is truly his and the movement moves forward.”

Many Republicans believe there is no going back to the old Republican Party before Trump seized it and reshaped it in his image. The new MAGA GOP is more extreme, more working class, and more populist than the old, business-oriented internationalist party.

“This Republican Party has forever changed,” said Conservative Political Action Committee Chairman Matt Schlapp.

Yet Trump’s influence goes far beyond politics and populism.

It is defined by his combative personality, his lack of inhibitions, his willingness to ignore democratic norms to go places others won’t, and to push past political boundaries in ways that many find alarming – such as threatening to use the military against Americans who oppose him. .

“Trump doesn’t care about the rules, he doesn’t believe they apply to him,” said Ty Cobb, who worked as a lawyer in Trump’s White House and is now a critic.

Having said and done things that other politicians would not, Trump could make it easier for others to follow suit.

Trump has survived scandal after scandal — including two impeachments, sedition, four criminal charges, 34 felony convictions and a civil judgment that found him liable for sexual misconduct and defamation — normalizing for his party what previously might have been disqualifying.

He has threatened to use the government to go after his political enemies, leading to criticism that he is pushing democracy to breaking point.

And by claiming that the 2020 election was stolen, and by continuing his baseless rhetoric about “cheating” in the 2024 contest, Trump has undermined confidence in the electoral system for millions of Americans. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll in January found that 67% of Trump supporters do not believe President Joe Biden was legitimately elected, and 52% were not confident that the results of the 2024 election would be accurately counted and reported .

That trust may be hard to restore, especially since Trump looks set to continue this message if he loses. Lawsuits over a potential loss seem likely. Trump’s campaign filed dozens of lawsuits challenging his 2020 loss, and nearly all of them failed.

Trump has also seized on darker rhetoric used by far-right figures, raising questions about whether such inflammatory language could be more widely accepted in the GOP.

The former president routinely vilifies his opponents and uses language associated with authoritarian regimes, describing his political opposition as “enemies from within” and “vermin”.

Trump’s cross-border approach has proven popular on the right.

“What he exemplifies is the idea that it’s OK to smash someone, twist their arm and have everyone cheer for it, that’s really attractive to a lot of people,” said Trump biographer Gwenda Blair.

Many of Trump’s more inflammatory comments have targeted undocumented immigrants, saying they “poison the blood” in the country and that those who commit murder have “bad genes.” He has routinely linked illegal immigration to widespread crime, as opposed to crime data.

Immigration has emerged as the defining issue for the GOP in the Trump era and will remain a focus. Trump has changed the conversation, promising to deport all immigrants in the country illegally − more than 11 million people.

Trump’s uncompromising approach and refusal to mediate dissent within his party has driven away moderates, prompting most of the party’s top leaders to adopt MAGA populism. Even the riot on January 6, 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol in an attempt to stop the certification of the 2020 vote, did not stop most in the party from embracing him again.

“I mean, if he can get away with January 6 and still dominate the conscience of what appears to be nearly 50% of the electorate four years later, I have no illusions that his influence is going to be hanging,” Cobb said.

Even if Trump loses, some who have opposed him are preparing an extended fight against the former president’s influence after Election Day.

“When Trump is gone, his stain will remain on the Republicans who bowed the knee to his fascist dreams. This is why we need to keep fighting, even after Tuesday,” the anti-Trump Lincoln Project wrote on X Monday, posting a video of former GOP congressman Adam Kinzinger talking about other GOP figures , which picks up Trump’s “cloak” and the need to keep the opposition “steaming”.

Excitement over who will lead the party after Trump has already begun and the 2028 Republican presidential candidates will begin to make their moves — immediately if Trump loses and later in the cycle if he wins.

Attention has already turned to Trump’s running mate JD Vance. Other Republicans are eyeing candidates who fell short in 2024, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Trump issues will remain popular with the rank and file, GOP members said.

Planning a post-Trump path forward would take time. Some Republicans might want to do another one of their periodic “autopsies” after a loss, and that will involve a lot of debate.

“It will probably be several months before the party seriously considers moving on and starts looking for the next big thing,” said Liz Mair, an anti-Trump Republican strategist.

And if there is another Trump presidency? An even Trumpier party, Mair said, “If he wins, I expect we’ll see even less resistance to even the craziest things he tries from the GOP than we did in his first term.”

Trump campaign adviser Corey Lewandowski said Trump has initiated a “fundamental shift to where the Republican Party was 10 years ago,” moving it away from “country club Republicans” to “one that now includes workers.”

Although Trump has reorganized the party, Lewandowski noted that he is also a unique figure. Lewandowski painted Trump as “the blue-collar billionaire” who has cobbled together a strong working-class coalition that others in the GOP could not, arguing “no other Republican can pull it off with any kind of authenticity.”

“It’s only because of him that this movement is so big,” Lewandowski said.

Trump has dominated the GOP so thoroughly that the party will face a vacuum if he loses. He does not have a ready replacement in the waiting period.

“Trump is unique, somebody’s not just going to pick up Trump’s mantle,” said former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

And while Trump is likely to remain influential in his party no matter what happens on Election Day, he could be hampered by legal issues, especially if he loses. He faces four criminal prosecutions, including one in New York where he is awaiting sentencing on 34 felony counts over hush money paid to an adult film actress to cover up an affair before the 2016 election.

Some of those cases could disappear if Trump wins — he has vowed to fire special counsel Jack Smith, who is prosecuting Trump on charges stemming from his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and alleged mishandling of classified documents.

If he loses, Trump will be more exposed to criminal sanctions. “He’s going to have to deal with law enforcement,” said Trump biographer Tim O’Brien.