Will bird flu outbreaks cause a pandemic or lockdown? Experts explain

H5 avian influenza, a type of bird flu, has been causing concern for months after infecting dozens of people in the United States this year. Now, a new human case in Canada — the country’s first — is heightening concerns, particularly about whether the virus could lead to another pandemic or lockdown.

A teenager is in critical condition being treated for acute respiratory distress at a British Columbia children’s hospital after testing positive for bird flu. The CBC reported.

The patient — whose gender, age and identity have not been released — “was a healthy teenager prior to this” with no underlying conditions, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry, said at a press conference.

The teenager had not been exposed to birds or other domestic animals, but had been around dogs, cats and reptiles, she added. The source of infection is under investigation.

Tests have confirmed that the patient has H5N1 The Public Health Agency of Canada announcedthe strain that has infected birds, poultry, mammals and humans.

Could it ultimately cause the next pandemic? Here’s what you need to know:

What is bird flu?

Like humans, birds can get the flu, and bird flu viruses that make birds sick can sometimes infect other animals like cows and rarely humans, National Library of Medicine explains.

H5 is a family of avian influenza viruses. It has caused widespread influenza in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and American dairy cows, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes. Some farm workers exposed to these animals have also become ill.

H5 has nine subtypes, including H5N1, the strain responsible for recent illnesses.

Is there an outbreak of bird flu?

There have been 46 confirmed human cases in the United States during the 2024 outbreak, According to the CDC. They were reported in California, Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, Texas and Washington State.

“We have an outbreak of human infections of H5N1,” says Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior researcher at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and a spokesman for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Almost all patients had contact with infected cattle or poultry. The single exception – a patient in Missouri — had no known animal exposure. There is no confirmed person-to-person spread.

The current public health risk from H5 bird flu is low, the CDC says. But the agency is “monitoring the situation closely” – as are experts in the field.

Dr. Ian Lipkin, an expert on emerging viral threats, calls it an important public health concern.

“Emerging infectious diseases are unpredictable. If you told me 20 years ago that we were going to have a big problem with the coronavirus, I wouldn’t have predicted it,” Lipkin, a professor of epidemiology at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, told TODAY. com.

“So nobody knows what will happen with this particular flu.”

Human infection with bird flu can happen when virus enters a person’s eyes, nose or mouth or is inhaled, according to the CDC. The disease can ranging from mild to severe and can be deadly.

Human H5N1 cases in the United States have been relatively mild, perhaps because people are mostly infected through their eyes, Adalja notes.

It can happen when a dairy worker milks an infected cow and, for example, gets splashed in the face with the milk.

“You get infected from the eyes instead of through the respiratory tract,” Adalja tells TODAY.com. It can be “less risky than respiratory inhalation” of the virus, he adds, when it can go to the lungs.

Can bird flu turn into a pandemic?

Both experts say that’s unlikely this a particular strain of bird flu would lead to a pandemic because it does not have the ability to spread efficiently between humans.

H5N1 has been infecting humans since 1997, so it has had time to evolve, but it still doesn’t easily jump from person to person, Adalja points out.

“I don’t think this is the highest risk of bird flu,” he says. “You can’t say the risk is zero. But with bird flu viruses, it’s a lower risk.”

Lipkin had a similar view.

“No one will ever say never because you could be wrong,” he warns. “Could this virus evolve to become more transmissible? Yes. Has it so far? No. Do I personally think it will be responsible for the next pandemic? No. Could it be? Yes.”

Since there are many different bird flu strains, one of them could cause a pandemic at some point in the future, Adalja adds.

The bird flu strain he is more concerned about as a pandemic risk is H7N9, which was first reported in humans in China in 2013 and expanded to more than 1,500 people in 2017. This virus also does not spread easily from person to person, but when people are infected, most become seriously ill, World Health Organization warns.

The most recent human H7N9 virus infection was reported in China in 2019, According to the CDC.

Could there be a lockdown due to bird flu?

Again, not likely for this strain, as H5N1 does not pose a threat to the public, both experts say.

If that were to change, people should realize that lockdowns, like those during COVID-19, are not the “goal” for an acute infectious disease, Adalja says, calling them “very blunt tools.”

Instead, proactive measures — such as more aggressive testing of livestock — will allow health officials to be much more precise when it comes to stopping the spread of infection, he notes.

When it comes to lockdowns, there is also the question of how far the authorities are willing to go.

“If H5N1 were to become a major health problem, we would have to talk about (containment),” Lipkin says.

“But I don’t think this incoming administration will be receptive to that.”

Is there a bird flu vaccine?

Four vaccine candidates for dairy cows have been approved for field trials, according to US Department of Agriculture.

In poultry, four potential bird flu vaccines began testing in 2023, This was reported by Reuters.

When it comes to people, is The CDC says the US government is developing vaccines against H5N1 viruses “in case they are needed.”

The agency adds that it has candidate H5 vaccine viruses that could be used to produce a vaccine for humans, and preliminary analyzes show that “they are expected to provide good protection” against H5N1.

There are also some vaccines in the strategic national stockpile that are closely—if not exactly—matched to this particular bird flu strain, Adalja says.

“There are efforts to make more up-to-date vaccines. But there is no widespread vaccination program being initiated against H5N1 at this time in the United States,” he notes.

Bird flu symptoms and prevention

The CDC lists the following symptoms of bird flu:

• Eye redness
• Mild flu-like symptoms in the upper respiratory tract
• Fever or feeling feverish
• Cough
• Sore throat
• Runny or stuffy nose
• Muscle or body pain
• Headache
• Fatigue
• Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
• Pneumonia requiring hospitalization
• Diarrhoea, nausea, vomiting or cramps (these are less common symptoms).

The people most at risk for H5N1 bird flu are dairy and poultry workers, who may be around infected animals, Adalja says. They should wear personal protective equipment while working on farms affected by the virus, the CDC advises.

When it comes to the general public, “don’t consume raw milk, full stop,” since H5N1 is viable in it, Lipkin says. Pasteurized milk can eliminate the risk of infection, he notes.

Properly cooked chicken is safe to eat, but wash your hands with soap and water after handling raw chicken, he adds.

It may be wise to skip the petting zoo or events where you can learn to milk a cow, adds Adalja.

Avoid direct contact with sick or dead wild birds, poultry and other animals, the CDC advises.