Hurricane Rafael, a Category 2 storm, maintains hurricane-like intensity at least through the end of the week

On November 7, 2024By Littum

(WALA) – Hurricane Rafael was moving away from western Cuba Wednesday night as it entered the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane.

As of the 9 p.m. advisory, Rafael was a 105 mph Category 2 system. It was moving northwest at 13 mph, and the forecast track calls for a more westerly course, with the storm maintaining its intensity as a hurricane at least through the end of the week.

The further west it goes, the more likely it will encounter hostile upper-level winds and cooler sea surface temperatures. This hostile environment will likely cause Rafael to weaken significantly as we head into the weekend. Long-range intensity models suggest it was unlikely to be a tropical storm Sunday or Monday.

We do not expect any significant local impacts here due to Hurricane Rafael. It’s very possible we won’t get any rain out of it, depending on the long run. If we see a little more turn toward Louisiana, we could see an increase in showers Saturday and Sunday. Rip current risk will remain high at beaches as Rafael passes to our south.

Our long-range outlook still looks warmer than average. Overnight low temperatures have been around 20 degrees above normal and will continue for the rest of the week. Daytime highs will be in the low 80s and we’ll see a decent chance for scattered showers each day. If Rafael continues to track further away from the area, rain chances may be slightly lower this weekend.

We will continue to monitor the extended forecast.

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