How the Raiders can climb back up in the NFL Draft over the last two weeks to land a QB

HENDERSON, Nev. – Antonio Pierce doesn’t care. The head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders (3-12) knows there is speculation about his job security and that many people view him as a lame duck heading into the offseason. But he doesn’t send it in or worry about the draft order.

“We’re not doing it to lose,” Pierce said Monday. “None of that matters to us. The only thing that matters is winning. That’s all we want to do.”

But we care. We know some fans are upset that they’re likely to lose the chance to draft first overall and land a top quarterback, so here’s our belated gift: a look at the Raiders’ best path to Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward in the draft.

With their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) last Sunday, the Raiders fell from the No. 2 to no. 6 in the projected order at the top of the 2025 NFL Draft. They are now on target to pick in order behind the New York Giants (2-13) at No. 1, New England Patriots (3-12), Jaguars, Tennessee Titans (3-12) and Cleveland Browns (3-12).

That has caused a not insignificant portion of the Raiders fan base to be up in arms about their diminished chances of drafting one of the top quarterback prospects, namely Sanders of Colorado or Ward of Miami. For those fans, the good news is that with two weeks left to play in the 2024 regular season, their teams can still move up the schedule.

Updated NFL Draft Order (NEW Clear Favorites for No. 1 Pick)

1. Giants (2-13)
2. Patriots (3-12)
3. Jaguars (3-12)
4. Titans (3-12)
5. Brown (3-12)
6. Raiders (3-12)
7. Panthers (4-11)
8. Jets (4-11)
9. Bears (4-11)

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) 23 December 2024

The Raiders travel to play the New Orleans Saints (5-10) on Sunday. Las Vegas has shown it can lose to any team, but the Saints can be passable if they are without Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and old friend Derek Carr, all of whom are dealing with injuries.

In the season finale, the Raiders will host the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), who beat them 22-10 in Week 1. The Chargers have yet to clinch a playoff spot and, even if they do in Week 17, can still play for seeding in Week 18. Divisional matchups can get weird, but unless the Chargers have locked up their playoff positioning and decide to rest their starters, it’s hard to see The Raiders knocking them off.

But how the Raiders fare won’t be the only factor in where they will be placed in the first round of the draft. If they tie with another team, the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule. If teams are tied for strength of schedule, then divisional or conference tiebreakers come into play. If these do not apply, then it goes to head-to-head matchups. It gets complicated if they are not relevantbut we’ll spare you those details for now.

Here’s a breakdown of what lies ahead for the teams the Raiders follow in the draft order.

New York Giants (No. 1)

With their televised mistreatment of Saquon Barkley this offseason, the Giants are the reason no team should want to be on “Hard Knocks.” Not to mention owner John Mara, who prophetically laments the possibility of Barkley thriving with the Eagles.

It’s a good reason to clean house if you’re Mara, and there’s no better way to do it than with no. 1 choice. The Giants are like a Japanese roller coaster in that they lose 10 games in a row with the subtlety of a circus clown. Last week, Drew Lock threw two pick sixes.

Lock injured his shoulder but is expected to play Sunday against the Colts. That’s good news for Giants fans, because while Lock has a good arm, his lack of pocket awareness and disdain for ball security will keep the momentum going.

The Giants finish at Philadelphia, which will likely have the No. The 2 seed in the NFC wrapped up and can rest quarterback Jalen Hurts. But the Giants were embarrassed by the Eagles 28-3 in their first meeting, and Kenny Pickett isn’t that terrible.

So Raiders fans, tip your cap to the Giants. This is how you think (implicitly) after the top election. Raiders not passing Giants. Neither is anyone else.

New England Patriots (No. 2)

A New England radio station played Dido’s song “Thank You” on Monday, cheering the Raiders for beating the Jaguars and allowing the Patriots to move up to No. 2 on the draft board … so they can (maybe) turn around and trade the pick to the Raiders for a boatload of picks.

That’s because the Patriots got their franchise quarterback this year in Drake Maye. The 22-year-old has overcome a brutal offensive line (its 72 rushing yards allowed are tied with the Bengals for most in the NFL) and timid receivers to hold the Patriots in half of their games over the past two months. They are 2-6 over that span with four losses coming by a total of 13 points, and Maye is good for two or three nice throws on the run a week.

Their team at no. 2 the place a bit flimsy. They host the Chargers on Sunday, and given Los Angeles’ lack of offensive firepower, an upset is possible. In Week 18, the Patriots host the Bills, who may have nothing to play for as the Kansas City Chiefs already locked up the No. 1 seed.

In short, Patriots fans shouldn’t be thanking the Raiders just yet. It may be the other way around in two weeks.

Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 3) and Tennessee Titans (No. 4)

The Jaguars and Titans play each other Sunday in Duval, so we grouped them together. Barring a tie, one will fall into the draft. If they tie, they both will. Either outcome would be positive for those rooting for the Raiders’ fortunes, but the most ideal would be a Tennessee win.

That’s because Jacksonville just signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract and isn’t a threat to take a quarterback in Round 1. Tennessee, on the other hand, recently benched 2023 second-round pick Will Levis and will probably look into the possibilities. Those rooting for the Raiders to draft a quarterback could breathe a little easier with a Titans win.

Looking ahead to Week 18, the Jaguars play the Indianapolis Colts (7-8) on the road, while the Titans host the Houston Texans (9-7). The Colts are still in the playoff picture, so they could have something to play for. And even though the Texans have already won the AFC South, they could be jockeying with the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) or Ravens for playoff seeding.

It would help the Raiders’ draft positioning if both the Jaguars and Titans won in Week 18, but that feels like wishful thinking. Nevertheless, the Raiders will jump at least one of these teams as long as they lose.

Cleveland Browns (No. 5)

The Raiders beat the Browns in Week 4 — the day before then-injured receiver Davante Adams requested a trade — so Cleveland holds the tiebreaker in draft order. To get ahead of the Browns, the Raiders need them to win at least one of their last two games.

Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is set to have a $72.935 million cap hit in 2025, so he’ll likely be on the roster, but he suffered a torn Achilles in Week 7 and has been awful since Cleveland traded for him in 2022. That would be organizational malpractice if the Browns didn’t seek an upgrade at quarterback.

The Browns host the Miami Dolphins (7-8) this week and travel to play the Baltimore Ravens (11-5) in Week 18. The Dolphins have been notoriously terrible in cold-weather games since drafting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. When it’s 45 degrees or colder, Tagovailoa has an 0-7 record. Although it’s expected to be 55 in Cleveland on Sunday, it’s supposed to be windy and rainy. Maybe the Browns can take advantage of the bad weather and topple the Dolphins.

Topping the Ravens, who could play to win the AFC North, on the road will be much more difficult. It doesn’t bode well for the Raiders’ odds of getting ahead of the Browns if Cleveland can’t beat the Dolphins.

(Photo of Deshaun Watson being tackled by K’Lavon Chaisson and Charles Snowden: Steve Marcus/Getty Images)