How the Eagles’ slim path to No. 1 hurts Saquon Barkley’s NFL record pursuit

On December 30, 2024By Littum

PHILADELPHIA – The NFL’s single-season rushing record is within reach of Saquon Barkley as Eagles running back heads into the final two games of the season against two of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL.

Barkley has 1,838 yards rushing. He needs 268 yards to pass Eric Dickerson’s NFL record of 2,105 yards set in 1984. That means Barkley would need to average 134 yards per carry. game against the Cowboys this Sunday at 1 p.m. and the Giants on January 5.

The Cowboys (7-8) rank 28th in the NFL in rush defense, allowing 136 yards per carry. match. The Giants (2-13) are 31st, allowing 143 yards per carry. match.

But it’s almost certain that Barkley and most of the Eagles’ starters will either not play in the Finals at all or very sparingly.

That’s because the Eagles (12-3) have only the slimmest of chances to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs after their last-gasp 36-33 loss to the Washington Commanders on Sunday. The Lions and Vikings (13-2) are tied for first in the NFC North and both hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles (see below).

The top seed is the only team that gets a bye in the first round. Although Eagles coach Nick Sirianni has not stated his intention on how he will treat the finals, he will likely treat it as a glorified bye week.

And that may be the case, even if the Eagles need to win that game to win the NFC East.

“That was one of the things I said to the team,” wide receiver AJ Brown said after the game. “No one in here better lose confidence. You don’t let hard times get you down. These aren’t even hard times. These are things you can’t control. Life happens. You don’t get everything you want. The good thing is that we have everything in front of us.”

Barkley, meanwhile, has said on a couple of occasions that he would love to get the record, but only in the context of getting to the Super Bowl.

Barkley has already surpassed his career high in rushing attempts after getting a season-high 29 carries (for 150 yards) on Sunday. That gives Barkley 314 carries for the season. His previous high was 295 in 2022 when he was with the Giants.

So rest before the playoffs will likely be a priority. That means Barkley will likely have to get all, or a large majority, of the yards needed to pass Dickerson this Sunday.

The dilemma would be if Barkley is within 50 yards or so of Dickerson’s record in the Finals. Would the Eagles let him play the first half against the Giants?

Here are the Eagles’ playoff scenarios:

Can the Eagles win the NFC East on Sunday?

Yes. The Eagles can win the division with their next win or the Commanders next loss.

The Eagles currently hold a two-game lead over the Commanders (10-5) with two games to play. But the Commanders would win the division tiebreaker if they win and the Eagles lose.

The Eagles close out the season with home games against the Cowboys and Giants. The Commanders will face the Falcons (8-7) at home Sunday night and finish at the Cowboys.

What about no. The 2 seed in the NFC playoffs?

The Eagles will win the No. 2 seed as soon as they win the NFC East.

That’s because neither the Rams (9-6) nor the Falcons, the division leaders in the NFC West and South, respectively, can catch the Eagles.

As no. The 2 seed Eagles would face the no. 7 seed to start the playoffs. At this point, the Eagles’ opponent would be Washington. If the Eagles are alive for the NFC Championship Game, held on Jan. 26, they would only have to travel if the No. The 1 seed is still alive.

Can the Eagles still get the No. 1 seed?

Yes, but it is almost impossible.

The Eagles do not play the Lions or the Vikings, both of whom are in the NFC North. So the first two tiebreakers are not in play – head-to-head and best division record.

The third tiebreaker is regular opponents (minimum five), and it’s likely the Eagles will tie with Detroit and Minnesota there as well.

Both the Lions and Vikings hold the fourth tiebreaker over the Eagles, which is a conference record. Detroit is 9-1 in the NFC, while the Vikings are 8-2 and the Eagles 7-3.

This means the Eagles cannot finish in a tie with both teams. They should win, while the team that wins the NFC North loses.

The problem is that the Lions and Vikings are playing each other for the division title on January 5th. This means that it is impossible for both of these teams to get 0-2.

So the only way the Eagles can win the top seed is if both Detroit and Minnesota go 0-1-1 the rest of the way while the Eagles win. The Lions are at the 49ers (6-9) on Sunday night, while the Vikings face the Packers (11-4) at home.

What happens if the Eagles are in a 3-way tie to end the season?

A three-way tie to end the season doesn’t help the Eagles. Since the Lions and Vikings are in the same division, that tiebreaker will be decided first. Then the same principles would apply to a tiebreaker between the Eagles and the NFC North winner.

Why is no. 1 seed so important in the NFL playoffs?

The top seed in each conference has a huge advantage in the playoffs.

That’s because that team would be the only team to get a first-round bye and home-field advantage leading up to the Super Bowl. Seed no. 2 had to play the weekend in the first round and win three games in total to get to the Super Bowl. Seed no. 1 would only need to win two games and both would be at home.

When and where is the Super Bowl in 2025?

The winners of the NFC and AFC would face each other in the Super Bowl on February 9, 2025 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

Contact Martin Frank at [email protected]. Follow on X @Mfranknfl.