Packers vs. Vikings: Breakdown of epic NFC North matchup

Earlier this week, Kevin O’Connell suggested that Sunday’s game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers would be a matchup between two “really good teams.” O’Connell, the Vikings coach, was modest.

More precisely, the contest will be a clash between two of the NFLs best team.

This is only the second NFC North/Central game since the 1970 NFL merger when two opponents have had at least 11 wins. And it serves as a reminder that either the Packers or Vikings will be one of the most eligible third-place teams ever to advance to the playoffs.

The Vikings (13-2) and Packers (11-4) have combined for 24 wins, the second-most in franchise modern history. The Vikings remain in position to unseat the Detroit Lions (13-2) for the division title and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC by winning their final two regular-season games, including their finale against the Lions.

The best the Packers can finish is second in the NFC North, with a No. 5 seed, but they are good enough to be well ahead of the Vikings in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which has the Packers as the third best. team in the league and the Vikings at no. 7.

The NFL took notice and flexed the game into a national broadcast window last week with a 4:25 PM ET kickoff, with Fox Sports immediately assigning its top team of Kevin Burkhart, Tom Brady and Erin Andrews. The teams will square off 13 weeks after their first matchup of the season, a 31-29 Vikings victory Sept. 29 at Lambeau Field.

“I always say I love those types of games,” Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson said, “the games you really need, the games that are exciting for everybody to watch. I love those kinds of games. I love those moments. “

To prepare for Sunday’s game at US Bank Stadium, Packers reporter Rob Demovsky and Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert discuss the rivalry’s recent history, size up each team’s season and look ahead to Sunday — and beyond.

Seifert: Rob, I’ve been covering Packers-Vikings games since 1999. I think your first was in 1973, right? Ha! And I struggle to think of another example where both teams had built such strong seasons to create this kind of late-season spectacle.

I can remember some big games with playoff implications. The 2012 regular season finale comes to mind when the Vikings (9-6 at the time) needed to win to qualify for the playoffs, which they did with a 37-34 victory. The Packers (11-4) had already won the division. Then there was the 2004 game, also at the Metrodome, where the Vikings (8-6) could have clinched the NFC North with a win. Instead, the Packers (8-6) won 34-31 and eventually clinched the NFC North with a 10-6 record.

But it is really hard to identify an exact historical parallel. If the Packers finish 1-1 or better (they tie with the Chicago Bears), the NFC North will be the third division in NFL history to have a third-place team with a winning percentage of .700 or better. The NFL has played at least 16 games in the regular season since 1978. In that span, the only time these teams combined to win more than 24 games was in 1998, when the Vikings finished 15-1 and the Packers 11-5.

Anything that jumps out at you, Rob?

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Demosky: First of all, I only have two years on you. My first Packers-Vikings game was in 1997.

The 2012 game will always stick out in my mind because it was the day Adrian Peterson had a chance to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record (2,105 yards). All Peterson did was put up 199 yards, but he was 9 yards short of the record.

The 2009 games where Brett Favre donned a Vikings uniform and played against The Packers twice, were incredible atmospheres and high-stress contests for the Packers, who wanted to show they could win without their longtime superstar.

But let’s get with the times. This is probably the most anticipated Packers-Vikings matchup since coach Matt LaFleur took over in Green Bay in 2019. He won his first three meetings with the Vikings and is 6-5 overall, but the Vikings have won five of the last eight contests in the series, including that Week 4 game this season at Lambeau.

There’s a ton of pressure on the Packers heading into this game for one reason — well, actually five reasons. They haven’t beaten any of the NFC’s top teams this season. They are a combined 0-5 against the Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), Lions and Vikings. Their best NFC win came over the Los Angeles Rams, but that was in Week 5 when the Rams were depleted by injuries. Probably their next best win came over the Houston Texans – and after Houston managed just two points in their Christmas Day game at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens, even that doesn’t look very impressive.

What does the Vikings’ CV look like?

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Seifert: On the outside, the Vikings have drawn comparisons to their 2022 team, which won 11 games by one score, finished with a 13-4 record and lost in the wild-card round of the playoffs. This team seems to have stronger bona fides.

The Vikings have the NFL’s fifth-highest point differential (plus-120) and are trailing a league-low 22% of their offensive snaps. Their only losses are by two points to the Lions in Week 7 and then four days later by 10 points to the Rams.

Overall, they have four wins over teams that currently have winning records: Packers, Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks. However, they are 1-2 against opponents with quarterbacks currently in the top 10 by NFL QBR after losing to the Lions’ Jared Goff and the Rams’ Matthew Stafford while defeating the Packers’ Jordan Love.

Love completed 32 of 54 passes for 389 yards and four touchdowns against them, but he also threw three interceptions.

Rob, the Packers are 9-2 since that game. What has changed for Love and the team?

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Demosky: It might be easier to list what hasn’t changed because the Packers are a much different team than they were in Week 4.

To begin with, love is healthy now. Remember, the Vikings game was his first after suffering a knee injury in the season opener and missing the next two games. With improved health has come improved accuracy and decision making. He has gone five straight games without an interception.

The Vikings beat him last time out, hitting him 10 times, including three sacks. He is much more mobile now and better equipped to escape pressure. The Packers also dropped four passes in that game, according to ESPN Research, though there were more that some analysts may have rated as drops.

A few weeks after that game, the Packers dumped kicker Brayden Narveson, who missed a pair of field goals against the Vikings. They now have veteran Brandon McManus, who is 43 of 44 on field goals and extra points combined since joining the team.

And finally, LaFleur has remained as committed as he ever has been to the run game, thanks to Josh Jacobs. The Packers rank sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts this season. That said, they couldn’t really run the ball against the Vikings as Jacobs had a season-low nine carries for 51 yards. It’s worth wondering if they’ll have better luck this time around, considering Minnesota ranks second against the run (87.1 YPG).

And speaking of Minnesota’s defense, nobody blitzes as much as the Vikings (38% blitz rate). But Love has been much better against the blitz lately. In the past six games, he has the best QBR against the blitz (97) after posting the third-lowest QBR against the blitz through the first seven games of the season.

Kevin, how do you think the Vikings will approach the Packers offense?

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Seifert: It’s worth noting that the Vikings’ blitz rate of 38% represents a fairly large variety of approaches per possession. game. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has blitzed on 28% or fewer dropbacks in four games this season, while there have been five games in which the Vikings hit at a 44% rate.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Flores fall in the lower end of that range this time against the Packers. In the only replay of games this season, Flores hit the Bears 23.6% of the time in their first meeting and 36% of the time in the second.

Everyone should also understand that Flores has had the benefit of a more productive quarterback and offense during the second half of the season. Sam Darnold has thrown 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the past six games, in which the team has been ranked No. 7 in the NFL with an average of 29.2 points.

As we wrap this up, something I’ve been thinking about this week is the difference between the first and second games between these teams in each of the previous two seasons when O’Connell has coached the Vikings and LaFleur has coached the Packers. The Vikings won the first games of the 2022 and 2023 seasons by a combined margin of 30 points, then lost the second games by a combined 47 points. Even in the first game of 2024, the Vikings won the first half 28-7, while the Packers won the second half 22-3.

None of the previous games had been close, and on the surface, the sequence would at least suggest the Packers have been pretty good at making adjustments.

Will that pattern continue Sunday? The Packers are certainly playing well enough to do that. A Vikings loss, combined with a Lions win Monday night at the San Francisco 49ers, will eliminate the Vikings’ chances of winning the division and give the Packers a chance to move up in the wild-card seedings.

Do you think that will happen, Rob? And do you like the way I asked you about it without even committing to a prediction?

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Demosky: All I know is the Packers are playing much better than they were back in September and October and they know they need a signature win heading into the playoffs. When asked how badly they needed one, Love didn’t hesitate.

“Bad,” he said. “Obviously we’ve only got one more chance here this week, so definitely as I’ve talked about before, we’ve got to be able to win these games against the really good teams in the league and adjust to the situation. we’re in the play-offs – on the road against good teams, so definitely a good test this week.”