Top storylines in NFL Week 17: NFC North race, Falcons-Commanders and playoff spots up for grabs

The penultimate week of the NFL regular season is in full swing. Six games are in the books after a Christmas Day doubleheader, Thursday night action and three Saturday contests. Nine more games follow on Sunday, and then the action wraps up Monday night when the Detroit Lions visit the San Francisco 49ers.

Ten out of 14 playoff spots have already been spoken for. In the AFC, the Los Angeles Chargers joined the Kansas City Chiefs (who have locked up the conference’s No. 1 seed), Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers in the postseason field on Saturday. The Denver Broncos lost a chance to clinch the final AFC berth when they lost 30-24 in overtime to the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday night. In the NFC, the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers have qualified for the postseason. Anyone else joining us on Sunday?

Here are five of the most compelling storylines to follow in Week 17’s Sunday and Monday games. (Find the full program here.)

1. Battle for NFL Draft pick no. 1

Fans of the Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders or Cleveland Browns or the 2-13 New York Giants may be conflicted about cheering for their teams this week and next. None of these teams’ seasons have played positively. But hope for the future remains strong as the race is on for the top pick in the 2025 draft. Players and coaches on these teams care about job security, not draft positioning, so they will do everything in their power to win this weekend. But a loss can mean more in the long run.

The Giants have a slight edge over the field. On Sunday, they face an Indianapolis Colts team that, at 7-8, is clinging to a sliver of playoff hope but will be without quarterback Anthony Richardson (back/foot). Others in the mix:

• The Titans and Jaguars play each other, so barring a tie, you’ll slide further away from picking no. 1.
• The Browns face the Miami Dolphins, who at 7-8 still have faint playoff hopes but may be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is questionable with a hip injury.
• The Raiders’ meeting with the 5-10 Saints makes for an ugly affair, but don’t tell quarterbacks Aidan O’Connell and Spencer Rattler. This game is one of their final auditions for their team’s starting quarterback job in 2025. They may seem like long shots, but given the limited star power expected to be available at QB through the draft and free agency, there always a chance.

(Titans at Jaguars, Raiders at Saints, Colts at Giants, 1 p.m. ET Sunday. Dolphins at Browns, 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday.)

2. Saquon Barkley’s quest for history

In addition to making a strong case for MVP consideration, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is chasing history. He enters this week needing 268 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards. Barkley, who leads the NFL with a career-high 1,838 rushing yards, will need to average 134 yards in the final two weeks of the season to catch Dickerson. That’s 12 yards more than his season average of 122.5 yards per game (also a league high), but Barkley gained 150 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries in last week’s loss to Washington. The 29 rushing attempts were a season high for the 27-year-old Barkley.

Sunday’s opponent, the Dallas Cowboys, could potentially help Barkley’s case. Dallas surrenders 135.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. Barkley’s season-high is 255 yards, gained against the Rams in Week 12. The Eagles, who are 12-3 and can win the NFC East Sunday with a win or a tie or a Washington Commanders loss or a tie, would be wise to lean on Barkley . That’s especially true with Kenny Pickett starting in place of a concussed Jalen Hurts. Philadelphia is 10-1 in games in which he tops the 100-yard mark. (Cowboys at Eagles, 1 p.m. ET Sunday.)

3. Falcons-Commanders SNF showdown

The Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders would love to clinch one of the last postseason tickets, and both have the opportunity to do so when they meet each other Sunday night at Northwest Stadium.

The Commanders are riding a three-game winning streak and are coming off an electrifying comeback win over Philadelphia last Sunday. Jayden Daniels threw five touchdown passes, including a strike to Jamison Crowder with six seconds left, to move his team one step closer to its first playoff berth since 2020. Daniels, the leading contender for the Rookie of the Year award, was the first Washington quarterback since Mark Rypien in 1991 to throw for five touchdowns in a game. The Commanders need a win or a tie Sunday, or a Tampa Bay loss or tie, to qualify for the postseason.

Washington welcomes an Atlanta team that hasn’t reached the playoffs since the 2017 season but is pinning its hopes on rookie Michael Penix Jr., who replaced Kirk Cousins ​​as the starting quarterback last week and helped blow out the Giants out. Leaning heavily on a rushing attack led by Bijan Robinson (94 yards), Penix carried Atlanta’s offense well. But his performance came against the struggling Giants. Can he build on that play and lead his team to victory, or will Washington’s defense make the Falcons one-dimensional and force Penix into mistakes? Or will Robinson cut down Washington’s defense like Barkley did last week? The Falcons clinch the NFC South title with a win and a Buccaneers loss on Sunday.

Which team’s drought will end first? (Falcons at Commanders, 8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday.)

4. Bucs on thin ice to make playoffs

After positioning themselves to leapfrog the Falcons in the NFC South standings last week, the Buccaneers suffered a painful 26-24 loss to the Cowboys. The Buccaneers totaled 410 yards, but the turnovers proved costly. Baker Mayfield threw an interception in the fourth quarter, and five minutes later, running back Rachaad White fumbled, sealing the loss.

Now 8-7, the Buccaneers need help to make the playoffs and have no margin for error. On Sunday, they host the Carolina Panthers, who thwarted the Arizona Cardinals’ playoff hopes last week with a 36-30 overtime victory in Charlotte. The last time Tampa Bay and Carolina met, in Week 13, the Bucs needed overtime to win 26-23. Bryce Young threw for 298 yards and the Carolina defense picked off Mayfield twice. To keep their hopes alive against an improved Panthers team and return to the playoffs for a fifth straight season, the Buccaneers must cure their ball security issues and be more frugal on defense. (Panthers at Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET, Sunday.)

5. Detroit double-dip?

A week after a painful loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Detroit Lions roared back with a 34-17 victory over the Chicago Bears. Now 13-2, the Lions have a chance to achieve two feats this weekend. With a win Monday night in San Francisco, and a Packers win over the Vikings on Sunday, the Lions can win the NFC North for the second year in a row and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. That would give them a first round bye and home court advantage in the playoffs.

If the Vikings win Sunday, Minnesota and Detroit would play each other in Week 18 in a winner-take-all battle for the NFC North crown and the No. the 1 seed.

San Francisco beat Detroit 34-31 in last season’s NFC Championship Game. Lions coach Dan Campbell said he expects that loss to motivate his players, but also added that they fully understand everything at stake this week.

“We know we need another win, we understand where we are in the division, in the NFC. And so I think that’s all-encompassing,” Campbell told reporters this week. “Most importantly, it’s the next one, that’s the next one in front of us.” (Lions at 49ers, 8:15 p.m. ET Monday.)

(Top photo of Jordan Love: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)