The Colts could have a real shot at the postseason or could be eliminated after Week 17

The Colts will make the playoffs as a wild card if they win their remaining games against the New York Giants (2-13) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) and one of two scenarios occurs:

Scenario 1: The Los Angeles Chargers lose their remaining games on the road against the New England Patriots (3-12) and the Las Vegas Raiders (3-12). This would tie the Colts and Chargers with 9-8 records; without a head-to-head tiebreaker, the Colts would advance based on having a better AFC record (the Chargers would be 6-6 and the Colts 7-5 against AFC opposition). If the Colts, Broncos and Chargers were to all finish with 9-8 records, the Colts would be the highest-seeded team among the three and make the playoffs based on AFC record.

Scenario 2: The Denver Broncos lose their remaining games at the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) and against the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1), AND the Bengals and/or Miami Dolphins win their remaining games. Cincinnati closes out the season against Denver and at the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), while the Dolphins host the Cleveland Browns (3-12) and New York Jets (4-11) to close out 2024.

In the second scenario, the Colts, Broncos and a third (or even fourth) team all have a 9-8 record. Because not all three or four teams will have met this season, the tiebreaker goes for conference record.

If the tiebreaker is between the Colts, Broncos and Bengals in this 9-8 scenario, the Colts would win it based on having a 7-5 conference record, better than the Broncos (who would be 5-7) and the Bengals (who would be 6-6 ). If the tiebreaker involves the Dolphins, who would also be 7-5 in AFC play, the Broncos (and possibly the Bengals) would be eliminated on the conference record, and then it would revert to a head-to-head tiebreaker between the Colts and Dolphins, as the Colts owner based on their 16-10 win over Miami in Week 7.

The Colts have a real chance to put some heat on the Broncos and/or Chargers – or be eliminated from the playoffs – when they start against the Giants at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday. That’s because there are two critical games on Saturday involving the Chargers and Broncos:

Chargers at Patriots, 6 p.m. 13:00: A Chargers win clinches a wild card spot for Los Angeles; a Chargers loss boosts the Colts’ playoff odds to 35 percent with a win over the Giants.

Broncos at Bengals, 4:30 p.m.: Denver clinch a playoff spot with a win; a Broncos loss and Colts win increases the Colts’ playoff odds to 36 percent.

If both the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday, the Colts will be eliminated from the playoffs. If both the Chargers and Broncos lose on Saturday and the Colts win on Sunday, the Colts enter Week 18 with a 38 percent chance to make the playoffs.

Browns at Dolphins, 4:05 p.m. Sunday: If you build the perfect weekend, it starts with the Colts winning, the Chargers and Broncos losing, and the Dolphins winning. The New York Times gives the Colts a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs in this scenario; it would still require the Chargers or Broncos to lose in Week 18, but a Miami win would give the Colts another path to a three-way tiebreaker with Denver should it come down to it.

Chiefs at Steelers, 1pm Christmas Day; Jets at Bills, Sunday at 13:00: A Chiefs loss and a Bills win means the AFC No. 1 seed won’t be locked up in Week 18, which would have Kansas City play Patrick Mahomes and their starters in Week 18 against the Broncos in Denver. If the Chiefs have the no. 1 seed locked up in Week 18, the expectation here is that Andy Reid would not play most of his starters, which would theoretically increase Denver’s odds of winning in Week 18.

None of this matters if the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday or the Colts lose on Sunday. But if enough breaks the Colts’ way this weekend, it could create a situation where a season-ending Colts win over the Jaguars puts pressure on the Broncos or Chargers — and leads to some incredible scoreboards in the first weekend of 2025.

The kickoff date and time for the Colts’ season finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars will be announced at the conclusion of Week 17’s games.