Scenarios for Cincinnati to make the postseason

On December 29, 2024By Littum

The Cincinnati Bengals‘ Playoff chances appeared to be dead in the water after the team fell to 4-8 in its 44-38 Week 13 loss to Pittsburgh Steelers.

Since then, the Bengals have gone on a three-game winning streak. While a trip to the NFL playoffs remains unlikely, there is a narrow path into the postseason for Cincinnati.

The Bengals have no room for error to make the playoffs. They also need help from several teams near the bottom of the AFC to establish themselves in the No. The 7 seed.

How slim are the Bengals’ playoff chances? Here’s what they need to get into the postseason.

Bengals playoff chances

The Bengals have a 5% chance of making the playoffs, according to Athletics playoff prediction model. That ranks as the lowest chance of any NFL team in the playoff hunt.

Bengals playoff odds

The Athletics’ model is slightly more pessimistic about the Bengals than the BetMGM Sportsbook. BetMGM lists Cincinnati at +1000 odds to make the postseason. That gives the Bengals a 9.09% implied probability of qualifying for the playoffs.

Either way, the path for the Bengals to make the postseason is narrow. They have little room for error as they look to overcome another slow start and get back into the playoffs after missing them last season.

What needs to happen for the Bengals to make the playoffs?

The Bengals need four things to happen to make the playoffs. They are as follows:

It represents the only path the Bengals have to the playoffs.

Bengals remaining schedule

The good news for the Bengals is that they can control at least part of their own destiny. They face the Broncos in Week 17, so beating Denver would help Cincinnati in two areas.

In Week 18, the Bengals will play a tough division matchup against the Steelers. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 44-38 in their first meeting, but enters last week’s matchup on a three-game losing streak.

Cincinnati’s last two opponents have a combined record of 19-12. Their combined .613 winning percentage gives the Bengals the 10th-toughest remaining schedule, per Tankathon.

Below is a full look at Cincinnati’s schedule:

Broncos remaining schedule

More good news for the Bengals: The Broncos have a tough finish to the 2024 NFL season. Denver has the third-toughest remaining schedule, as of Tankathonas the Broncos will face Cincinnati and then get a date at 15-1 Kansas City Chiefs in week 18.

The only question is whether the Chiefs, who got the AFC’s No. 1 seed at Christmas, will play their starters in the final week. If not, it could open a door for the Broncos to win out and get into the postseason.

Andy Reid’s team could sense a chance to knock a division rival out of the postseason race if the Broncos lose to the Bengals. If so, the Chiefs could come in ready to play and help send Denver to two straight losses.

Below is a complete look at Denver’s schedule:

Høl’s remaining schedule

This is where things get problematic for the Bengals. The Colts have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. They play against New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguarswho have an overall record of 5-25 over the final two weeks of the season.

The Colts are expected to be favored in both of these games. If they can win and the Broncos stumble, they will be in the playoffs over the Bengals.

Below is a full look at Indianapolis’ schedule:

Dolphins remaining schedule

Even if the Bengals are lucky and the Colts find a way to lose one of their last two games, Cincinnati would also need Miami to lose against either Cleveland Browns or New York Jets. This schedule is tied for the fifth-easiest in the entire league.

The good news for the Bengals is that both games are coming up. The Dolphins tend not to play well in cold weather, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them drop one of these two games, especially if the weather is bad.

Below is a complete look at Miami’s schedule:

Bengals potential playoff opponents

The Bengals can only be the No. 7 seed in the NFL playoffs in 2024. That means there are only two possible opponents they can face. They are as follows:

The Bills have the inside to seed no. 2 in the postseason and can wrap it up with a Week 17 win over the Jets. With that in mind, Zac Taylor can start preaching about a potential trip to Buffalo as he tries to coach Cincinnati to an unlikely playoff berth.

AFC playoff picture week 17

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texas (9-7, AFC South winners)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, wild card No. 2)
Denver Broncos (9-6, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8), Cincinnati Bengals (7-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (9-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card no. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
Washington’s commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

A star

denotes team that has earned a playoff berth. Teams that have won division titles are noted accordingly.