Scenarios for Los Angeles to win the NFC West

On By Littum

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The Los Angeles Rams the season began slowly and sputtered to just a 1-4 record over the first five weeks.

But as they often have under Sean McVay, they are Aries heats up during the season. IN Week 17they beat Arizona Cardinals to earn their fifth straight victory, positioning them to win NFC West.

The Rams are in control of their own destiny heading into Week 18, but they might not even need to win their final game to clinch the division. Depending on the results of the rest of the Week 17 games, Los Angeles may already be guaranteed passage to the NFL playoffs as NFC West Champions.

What must have happened for the Rams to win the NFC West? Here’s what you need to know about their playoff chances after their win over the Cardinals.

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Rams playoff chances

The Rams have a better than 99% chance of making the playoffs after their win over the Cardinals, according to Athletics playoff prediction model. They also have a 99% chance to win the NFC West over Seattle Seahawks.

Rams playoff odds

Oddsmakers agree with The Athletic’s assessment of the Rams’ postseason chances. Sportsbooks do not list Los Angeles’ postseason odds or odds to win the NFC West entering Week 17’s Sunday action.

That means the books recognize the Rams are all but locked into a playoff spot — and likely the NFC West title.

What needs to happen for the Rams to make the playoffs?

The Rams can make the playoffs in Week 17 if they win the tiebreaker over the Seahawks. It would take three of the following teams to win their matches:

The Rams can also win the NFC West if two of the above teams win and one tie.

If the Rams fail to clinch the strength of victory pins in Week 17, they could clinch the division in Week 18 with any of the following results:

  • Rams win over Seahawks;
  • Rams tie with Seahawks;
  • Rams lose to Seahawks, wins strength of victory tiebreaker based on Week 18 results.

Given this, the Rams will likely win the NFC West whether it’s in Week 17 or Week 18.

What is the strength of victory tiebreaker?

The NFL’s strength of victory tiebreaker represents the total number of opponents a team has beaten. It is the fifth tiebreaker used by the league, after head-to-head record, divisional play, joint play and conference play.

This matters because the Rams and Seahawks would see all of their first four tiebreakers even if Seattle beats Los Angeles in Week 18. However, if the Rams achieve the strength of victory tiebreaker, they will be guaranteed to finish ahead of the Seahawks regardless of the Week 18 outcome, as Los Angeles will finish with a record as good as or better than Seattle’s.

Below is a look at the strength of victory for the Rams and Seahawks entering play on Sunday, Dec. 29:

The Rams’ remaining schedule

If the Rams don’t achieve the strength of victory tiebreaker in Week 17, they can make it meaningless in Week 18 by beating the Seahawks head-to-head. The division rivals meet in week 18.

Los Angeles beat Seattle 26-20 in overtime in their first meeting of the season in Week 9.

Below is the Rams’ remaining schedule:

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Rams potential playoff opponents

If the Rams win the NFC West, they will either become the No. 3 or no. 4 in NFC. That will put them in a tough matchup with one of the following opponents:

The Rams have the inside track to no. 3 seed and can end it with a win. That would put them in line to face No. 6 seed, which is expected to be the Packers entering Week 17.

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NFL playoff picture week 17

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
  2. Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
  3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
  4. Houston Texas (9-7, AFC South winners)*
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, Wild Card No. 1)*
  6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card no. 2)*
  7. Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

  1. Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
  3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
  4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
  5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card no. 1)*
  6. Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
  7. Washington’s commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

A star

denotes team that has earned a playoff berth. Teams that have won division titles are noted accordingly.