The Lunch Update … the calm before the storm : Alabama Weather Blog

While the central and eastern parts of the state remain quiet and dry for now, storms are already invading the western and southwestern parts of the state as we hit lunchtime on this last Saturday of 2024. Rain is taking place along and west of a line from Carrollton to Demopolis to Coffeeville. So far, none of this activity is strong to difficult, but that will change as we get further into the afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures across the state ranged from the lower 50s in the northeast to the lower 70s in the southwest. The cool spot at the moment was Gadsden at 53F, while the warm spots were Bay Minette and Selma at 72 degrees. Dew points are in the 60s for pretty much everyone along and south of I-22 in the west and I-20 in the east.

While the above image shows the counties covered by NWS Birmingham, it gives the best depiction of the timing. I will stretch it out to cover everyone in the state as far as this timing. For locations west of a line from Huntsville to Brookwood to Mobile, the threat window will be from 15.00 to 01.00 Sunday. East of that, the threat window will be from 19.00 to 04.00 Sunday. And for locations east of a line from Heflin to Alexander City to Greenville, the threat window will be from midnight tonight to 8 p.m. 08.00 Sunday. We could see tornadoes, some of which could be strong, long-track tornadoes in elevated and moderate risk locations, damaging winds up to and possibly over 70 mph, and hail up to ping pong ball size in diameter.

Speaking of those risk locations, the latest update from the SPC shows that now the entire state has been classified as a slight risk, increased risk, or a moderate risk of severe storms…

• Moderate risk: west of a line from Gainesville to Myrtlewood to just south of Chatom.

• Enhanced risk: west of a line from Hamilton to Adamsville to just west of Clanton to Evergreen to Flomaton.

• Small risk: the rest of the state east of the increased risk.

For now, there’s hardly any volatility in place across the state, with higher rates rising quickly as you head west across southern Mississippi, back into Louisiana and southeast Texas. Our shear levels are not high enough at this time for rotating thunderstorms, with these values ​​being highest to our west. As time goes on this afternoon and into the evening, these values ​​will increase and severe weather will be possible.

HRRR rain valid at 15.00 today.

The latest HRRR run shows the rain spreading across the western parts of the state and we also notice a lot of cells developing ahead of the main squall line that will affect us later this evening. We will have to keep an eye on these cells for the possibility of the stronger long-track tornadoes.

By 8pm we see most of the activity has lifted north with the warm front and most of the area will see a lull in the action before the squall line enters the state just a few hours later. But sometimes these models don’t capture convective storm development well, so we need to be vigilant and continue to watch for supercell development in the state.

HRRR rain valid at 12.00 Sunday.

By midnight, the line will move into the I-65 corridor in central Alabama, where the greatest threat will be from damaging winds and a lesser potential for brief, spin-up tornadoes. Hail will also be possible within the main squall line. The higher odds of seeing tornadoes will be over the southern half of the state at this time, but a few can’t be ruled out for the northern half.

HRRR rain valid at 05.00 Sunday.

At the end of this model run at 05:00 Sunday morning, the main squall line will have moved into Georgia, but we will continue to see showers and storms across the western half of the state. At this point, I think the tornado risk would be almost over, with the main threat focused on damaging winds for the northern half of the state. However, a few tornadoes appear to remain possible east of I-65 for the southeast corner of the state for a few more hours.

It is not too late to prepare for today’s severe weather. Have your safety supplies and safety location ready to go if your location falls under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. Have a reliable way to receive alerts and also have an even better backup, like in a NOAA Weather Radio. Keep your phones charged and your source of alerts to wake you up if the storm hits while you sleep. We will have updates throughout the rest of your Saturday and into your Sunday morning until the last of the severe weather is out of the state.

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