Four reasons why BYU can win the Alamo Bowl over Colorado

Let’s be honest, if this was a bowl game from the Independence era, BYU fans would be throwing a parade down Center Street. A standalone Saturday night game on ABC against a ranked Colorado team and Heisman Trophy winner in Travis Hunter could be a top five BYU bowl game. Of course, everyone wanted to face Colorado in a Big 12 title game, but I guess fans will have to settle for this. Bummer (strong sarcasm).

A BYU win over Colorado would go a long way to take the sting out of a disappointing end to an otherwise magical season. A win tonight secures an 11-win season, a top-15 ranking and enough offseason momentum to give BYU a preseason ranking that, unfortunately, means a lot more than you think. Here are four reasons why I think BYU will get it done.

Advanced analytics believe this is a good matchup for BYU. BYU’s offense is 22nd in projected points added (EPA) per rush compared to 43rd for Colorado’s defense against the run. Meanwhile, BYU’s defense ranks 27th in the EPA as of rush and 12th in EPA per drop back compared to 73rd and 25th respectively for Colorado’s offense. The only EPA edge Colorado has is their 24th national ranking in defensive EPA per. drop back compared to 36th for BYU’s offense. BYU is also 14th nationally in net yards per carry. game compared to 27th place. In less data geek speak, BYU generates more plays than Colorado on average on a per-play basis. The question then becomes whether Jake Retzlaff can continue to generate the big plays without the costly mistakes that plagued BYU in the month of November.

You’d be hard-pressed to find a quarterback who has been under more pressure this season than Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Colorado ranks 124th nationally in sacks allowed (3.5 per game), while QB hurries on over a third of Sanders’ drop backs. When pressured, Sanders’ completion percentage drops from 80% to 54%, while his turnover rate nearly doubles. Most alarmingly for Colorado, over 20% of the pressure allowed becomes sacks. That’s welcome news for a BYU defense that has been able to put pressure on quarterbacks all season but has struggled to get home on opposing quarterbacks. If BYU can get Colorado out of the schedule with QB pressure on early downs, Colorado’s 39% 3rd/4th. down conversion rate not be enough to keep Colorado’s high-flying offense on the field.

You may not like it, but sometimes the easiest way to play defense is to never let an opponent get on the field. If any team is good at it, it’s BYU. BYU is the 3rd best offense in the country in generating drives that reach scoring position and 23rd in available yards gained per scrimmage. drive. Translation: BYU moves the ball as well as anyone in the country. The struggles have come with red zone execution over the last month with bone-chilling mistakes and turnovers. BYU will be able to keep Colorado’s offense off the field for long stretches with a consistent running game. Whether they win or not depends on whether they can capitalize on touchdowns on the long drives that they did early in the season.

Colorado ranks dead last nationally in rush yards per. game (71) and third last in yards per rush (2.6). I don’t think it gets any better against a BYU defense that ranks top 50 in both. Instead of the running game, Colorado has relied on the quick passing game to fill the void left by an ineffective running game. Over 60% of Sanders’ passes travel 10 yards or less with a screen rate of nearly 20%. These throws are incredibly effective for Colorado as nearly 90% of those throws are completed to a host of elusive wide receivers led by Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter with room to work.

BYU’s ability to tackle in space on the edges will be crucial. BYU is stronger in this regard than you think. BYU’s linebacking trio of Jack Kelly, Isaiah Glasker and Harrison Taggart all have exceptional speed, while 3 of BYU’s top 4 cornerbacks all have tackle grades over 70 on PFF. If BYU can limit the screen game and force Colorado to throw at a higher risk, there will be more opportunities for an elite BYU secondary to make the game-changing plays they’ve made all season.

If BYU’s pass rush can’t get to Shedeur Sanders and BYU turns the ball over multiple times, this game could snowball in the wrong direction. On the other hand, if BYU plays successful and pure run-centric football, Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders won’t be on the field enough to do any real damage.

Teams that beat Colorado are teams that run football. Nebraska, Kansas and Kansas State combined for 665 yards and were +40 in combined time of possession. That’s BYU’s path to victory. BYU won’t rush for 330 yards like Kansas did, but they can match the 150 mark set by Nebraska. BYU has averaged 172.5 yards rushing per game. game over their last 8 games and with at least 2 9+ play drives in each game over that span. Don’t overcomplicate it. Run (redacted) the ball and let Jay Hill and LJ Martin lead BYU to its second 11-win season in the last 15 years.

BYU 27 – Colorado 24