Corbin Burnes will not be an Oriole in 2025

Good morning Birdland!

The year is almost over, but it saved one of its biggest disappointments for the final days. The Orioles’ ace from 2024 is pitching for another team in 2025. News broke overnight that Corbin Burnes had agreed to a six-year, $210 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacksthus ending the chances of a Baltimore reunion.

The binary outcome of “Orioles don’t sign Burnes” isn’t surprising. Mike Elias has made it pretty clear that he doesn’t like handing out big bucks in free agency, especially to pitchers. He has spoken out differently, saying the team would be “in” on anyone the front office felt improved the team. Burnes certainly would have. He would have been expensive too.

It’s quite a shock to see Diamondbacks be those who grant such a contract. They were never really mentioned as a landing spot for Burnes during the entire process. But they haven’t shied away from starting pitchers recently, dishing out $127.5 million in combined money to Eduardo Rodríguez and Jordan Montgomery just a year ago. Burnes is of course a very different level of consumption.

As the news is just coming out, the contract specifications are unclear. The AAV is $35 million through 2030, and Burnes has an opt-out after the 2026 season. But no one has yet indicated whether there is significant deferred money or whether the contract is weighted in any direction. If all years are equal and Burnes pitches like himself over the next two years, he’d probably do better to opt out after ’26, but that remains to be seen.

If the Orioles were ever really interested in that kind of spending, they missed out anyway. They will now have to look elsewhere for rotation help. Dylan Cease may be available. Mariners are always looking to trade and have plenty of weapons. Framber Valdez is reportedly on the block, though he trades along Astros always feels like a prank. Funnily enough, the Dbacks would probably give Montgomery away for any kind of salary reduction at this point. He was terrible in 2025, so buyer beware.

All of this assumes that Elias and the front office themselves believe the Orioles need more hitting starters.

By that I mean Elias and his crew might think they made their addition to the 2025 rotation last summer when they traded for Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers. Burne’s departure was pretty predictable so they hedged their bets with guys under control for 2025. Eflin was great. Rogers stunk, but is also younger and under control in 2026.

If that’s their mindset, you can understand if they feel comfortable going into the season the way they are, especially if they also think Kyle Bradish will be back late in the season. In that scenario, there is no need to add an ace. You have an in-house that just needs to get healthy.

I’m not saying you have to agree with that line of thinking! In fact, I think this team needs another reliable starter that you would be comfortable using in the playoffs. But Elias clearly has his principles, and they don’t include forking over tons of cash to pitchers. This always meant that Burnes was unlikely to return. A trade of some significance is (hopefully) still on the table.

Links

Playing with Orioles lineups | Roch Kubatko
Mocking lineups is fun stuff! I strongly disagree with Roch’s decision to bat Tyler O’Neill at third against right-handed pitchers. That’s not his strength. The Orioles also need terrific leadership from the hitter. Gunnar is great, but he should be hitting with guys on base. Hopefully, Jackson Holliday can grow into that role as the season progresses.

Orioles 2024 recap: 9 storylines from a season of hope and disappointment | The Baltimore Banner
It really was a wild year for the Orioles. So many monumental things happened. It would have been cool if it included a playoff win.

1 stat for every team to wonder about from the 2024 season | MLB.com
If it’s written by Sarah Langs, you know I’m reading it. You should too. She also posted this timely factoid.

Oriole Birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

• Bill Hall turns 45 today. He played in seven games for the Orioles in 2012, and appeared in an episode of The Young and the Restless (with JJ Hardy) in 2007.
• BJ Ryan is 49. The lefty had seven seasons in Baltimore from 1999 to 2005. By the end of his tenure, he was a dominant closer, saving 36 games in ’05. The Blue Jays signed him to a record contract for a reliever (five years, $47 million) the following offseason.
• Ray Knight is 72 years old. A long time MLB infielder, Knight spent the 1987 season in Baltimore, accumulating 0.5 bWAR in the campaign.
• The late Aurelio Rodriguez (b. 1947, d. 2000) was born on this day. He spent 17 years in the big leagues, and 45 games in that career came with the Orioles starting in 1983. The veteran struggled at the plate in Baltimore (.119/.130/.119) but provided solid defense before being released in August same year.

This day in history

2005 – Orioles and free agent outfielder Jeromy Burnitz agree to two-year deal, but it is never signed. Days later, Burnitz’s agents would claim the breakdown was due to language in the contract regarding a physical, while the Orioles believe Burnitz simply changed his mind.