Inside the games for the Armed Forces Bowl

On December 27, 2024By Littum

FORT WORTH, Texas — OU’s Armed Forces Bowl matchup with Navy is one of the more exciting matchups of the bowl season.

It’s Navy’s first bowl against an SEC opponent since the 1950s and a matchup of the Midshipmen’s triple option against the program where the option flourished for decades.

It has Blake Horvathone of the best running quarterbacks in the nation, against a freshman now forced into service after starter Jackson Arnold transferred to Auburn.

So has Navy coach Brian Newberry, who coaches against the team he grew up with.

The game also has the Sooners trying to avoid just their second losing season of their last 26, while Navy is trying to win 10 or more games for just the sixth time in program history.

Here’s a closer look at the matchups in Friday’s game:

When OU runs the ball: Will Xavier Robinson carry the load?

Just six weeks or so ago, it looked like Xavier Robinson was destined to redshirt.

But the freshman from Carl Albert came on late — thanks to Taylor Tatum’s fumble issues, Jovantae Barnes’ health and Gavin Sawchuk’s ineffectiveness.

Robinson, Tatum, Sawchuk and Sam Franklin are all listed as co-starters at running back on the pregame depth chart.

However, Robinson has clearly been the most efficient, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. carry with four touchdowns.

Tatum’s yards per carry is slightly higher (5.1), but he has struggled with ball security.

Freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. has shown some ability to run, both with the fearlessness he showed against Tennessee and then again against Auburn the next week, and the speed he flashed during a long touchdown run against Auburn.

When OU throws the ball: Who will be Michael Hawkins Jr.’s target?

OU has been shorthanded as a receiver all season.

They will be even more concise in the Defense Bowl.

The Before‘ two leading receivers, tight end Bauer Sharp and wide receiver JJ Hester, have both moved away, leaving Deion Burks — who is questionable after missing the last two games and seven of the last eight — as the only potentially available receiver with more than 207 recipients. yards this season.

Behind Burks, the next leading receiver is Jacob Jordan, who has 22 catches for 207 yards and a touchdown.

Navy is allowing 207.7 yards per carry. battle through the air, and squeaks into the top 50 nationally in the category.

Security Rayuan Lane III has been Midshipmen‘s best defensive player in pass coverage. Lane has two interceptions, has broken up four passes and has three forced fumbles.

The Navy has 17 intercepts, which ranks fifth nationally.

The Sooners, for all their offensive issues, have mostly avoided interceptions, with just six this season — tied for 10th nationally.

When Navy Runs the Ball: Strength vs. strength

This is the area where the match will be decided.

The Midshipmen have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, averaging 249.3 yards per carry. fight on the ground. It is in seventh place nationally.

OU has one of the best rush defenses in the country, ranking 11th at 105.8 yards per carry. fight allowed on the ground.

But the Sooners will be without one of their top run-stopping weapons as linebacker Danny Stutsman will not participate in the game as he prepares for the NFL Draft.

Stutsman graded at 91.1 against the run this season according to Pro Football Focus, second nationally among linebackers with 100 or more plays against the run.

Horvath is the top-graded quarterback on the run, at 91.5 — better than all but five running backs who played more than 100 snaps.

When Navy throws the ball: Watch out for Eli Heidenreich

The Midshipmen have attempted just 166 passes this season — just over half of what OU has attempted (320) in a season where attempts were down significantly from years prior.

By comparison, the last time the Sooners attempted fewer than 200 passes in a season was 1998, the last season before the arrival of Bob Stoops.

But while Navy doesn’t attempt many passes, nearly 18% of its completions have gone for touchdowns.

Midshipmen running back Eli Heidenreich has 37 catches for 649 yards and six touchdowns, more than double the yardage production of OU’s top receivers.

In addition to being without Stutsman, OU will also be without safety Billy Bowman and cheetah Dasan McCullough.

Special teams: Zach Schmit gives OU a kick

The Midshipmen have been susceptible to missed extra points this season, with Nathan Kirkwood missing four of 51.

OU kickers Zach Schmit, Tyler Keltner and Liam Evans combined for 30 of 31 on extra points, and Schmit is a perfect 141 of 141 on extra points in his career. The streak is the third-longest in program history.

Schmit is also 9 of 10 on field goals, while Kirkwood is 5 of 8.

OU is averaging just 7.8 yards per carry. punt return, though Navy is even worse at 4.6 (112th nationally).

Both players have been very efficient, with OU’s Luke Elzinga averaging 45.2 yards per carry. punt, while Navy’s Riley Riethman is even better at 45.7 yards per punt. punt.