Texas Tech football vs. Arkansas: Liberty Bowl analysis, prediction

On December 27, 2024By Littum

The 66th edition of the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn., will match stripped-down versions of the Texas Tech football team and Arkansas.

Tech (8-4) is without quarterback Behren Morton (shoulder surgery) and wide receiver Josh Kelly (opt out), both top 10 in the FBS in major statistical categories. Dalton Merryman and Ty Buchanan, part-time starters at tackle, have committed to new teams via the NCAA transfer portal.

On top of that, Tech’s offensive and defensive coordinators for the past three seasons are gone, replaced for the bowl game on an interim basis by position coaches Justin “Juice” Johnson and CJ Ah You.

Arkansas (6-6) has had four players declare for the NFL draft, including rushing leader Ja’Quinden Jackson, receiving leader Andrew Armstrong and sack leader Landon Jackson. Since the transfer portal opened on December 9, it has Razorbacks has had seven starters step in and five others in the two-deep.

The Razorbacks are 1 1/2-point favorites. Kickoff is Friday at 6:00 PM at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.

When Texas Tech football runs

Two-time 1,500-yard rusher Tahj Brooks started the week at Memphis, although neither he nor Tech coach Joey McGuire had said at the time whether Brooks will play. If Brooks opts out, true freshmen Cameron Dickey (26 carries, 151 yards, one touchdown) and J’Koby Williams (26-113-1) will be focal points. Arkansas boasts the FBS’s 32nd-ranked rushing defense and still has its top three tacklers: linebackers Xavian Sorey (89 tackles, nine tackles for loss) and Stephen Dix Jr. (65 tackles) and nickel back Doneiko Slaughter (76 tackles).

Advantage: Texas Tech if Brooks plays; Arkansas if he doesn’t.

When Texas Tech passes

True freshmen Will Hammond and Jacob Ponton are set for their first career starts at quarterback and left tackle, respectively. The presence of WRs Caleb Douglas (55 catches, 762 yards, six TDs) and Coy Eakin (45-605-6) and TE Jalin Conyers (29-308-5) should help Hammond settle correct. Arkansas is last in the SEC in pass defense and has lost its top two in sacks and S TJ Metcalf (57 tackles, team-high three interceptions, seven pass breakups).

Advantage: Texas Tech

When Arkansas runs

Without Ja’Quinden Jackson (149-790-15), Arkansas’ most dangerous run-game option could be QB Taylen Green (141-521-7). Freshman RB Braylen Russell (47-304-2) has had his name in and out of the gate twice each, but Arkansas lists sophomore Rodney Hill (20-103-2) as its starter. The Razorbacks’ 41st-ranked rushing offense is further diminished by the portal departures of three starting offensive linemen. A Tech defense led by LBs Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts hasn’t lost much in the portal.

Advantage: Texas Tech

When Arkansas passes

Gone are WRs Armstrong (78-1,140-1) and Isaiah Sategna (37-491-1) and TE Luke Hasz (26-324-4). WR Isaac TeSlaa (25-438-3) is the only player on the Razorbacks’ bowl depth chart with at least 200 yards receiving. It’s a match of resilient power vs. moving object with Tech’s pass defense second last in the FBS, despite five sacks from Rodriguez and four interceptions from S CJ Baskerville. Green is the SEC’s fourth-leading passer with 2,813 yards.

Advantage: Arkansas

Special teams

Tech K Gino Garcia (18-of-19 field goals) and KR Drae McCray (26.4-yard average) rank with most of the nation’s best in their categories, and P Jack Burgess (42.0-yard average) has been solid. Arkansas P Devin Bale (44.9-yard average) ranks fifth in the SEC, but PR Sategna returned all punts for the Razorbacks this year and was one of the transfer portal’s departures.

Advantage: Texas Tech

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 33, Arkansas 21

Bottom line: Arkansas, with its proximity to Memphis, could have more fans, but the Razorbacks also have a little more attrition of key players. Texas Tech is set to win a bowl for the fourth consecutive year and third in that span against an SEC opponent.