Key questions for Boxing Day matches

Football writer Alex Keble analyzes where this weekend’s games could be won and lost, including:

– Can Man City reset against goal shy Everton?
– New managers meet at Molineux
– Can Juric stabilize Southampton’s defence?
– Nottingham Forest’s style is giving Spurs problems
– Can Fulham end poor record against Chelsea?
– Bournemouth to boost European hopes?
– Newcastle and Villa’s in-form midfields meet
– Will Salah achieve Anfield century?
– Can Brighton get back to winning ways?
– Will in-form Jesus ease the loss of Saka?

Goal shy Everton perfect opponents for Man City?

At first glance, this looks like a difficult game for Pep Guardiola: successive 0-0 draws against Arsenal and Chelsea made it five clean sheets in the last six games for Everton.

But scoring is not Manchester City’s problem. They might have lost nine of their last 12 games in all competitions (W1 D2), as many as they had in their previous 112, but Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Juventus and Inter Milan are the only teams to keep clean sheets against them .

No, the problem has been defending. City have conceded the first goal in nine different Premier League games this season and more often than not the opening goal shakes their confidence, especially as we get deeper into this difficult period for the club.

Everton have scored just 14 goals in the Premier League, second fewest to Southampton (11) in the division. They are unlikely to get the opener, which could allow Man City to maintain control, find their rhythm and eventually take the lead.

Since the start of November, Man City have earned four points, fewer than any other Premier League team. They’re in a rut, but that doesn’t mean goal-shy Everton – who are responsible for five of the nine 0-0s we’ve had this season – will be any less defensive.

A goal can do it for Man City. At the Etihad Stadium, where they have scored seven goals in their last three games, they should be able to get the job done.

Will Wolves’ new managerial bounce highlight the lack of one at Man Utd?

The impact of new manager Vitor Pereira was immediate.

Tactically, Wolverhampton Wanderers changed little at Leicester City, but with eight Portuguese players in the starting line-up, there was a sense of cohesion and sharpness to the performance, as if rejuvenated by a fresh voice in the dressing room.

In other words, it was a classic new manager bounce which, on Boxing Day, may accentuate the strange absence of one at Manchester United.

Ruben Amorim has lost three of his first six Premier League games, picking up just seven points in the process, and the 3-0 defeat to AFC Bournemouth was arguably the most disappointing game to date.

The way Bournemouth cut through the United defense was alarming to watch, especially ahead of a trip to Molineux where Matheus Cunha (nine goals involved in his last nine games) will expect to find joy in the transition.

Victory for Pereira would make him the first Wolves manager to win both of his first two top-flight games since Sammy Chung in August 1977.

It would also leave Amorim wondering why the Wolves players are able to raise their performance levels for a new manager and his own players are not.

Can Juric make Southampton more resilient?

Former AS Roma, Torino and Genoa boss Ivan Juric has been appointed Southampton manager on an 18-month contract and will officially take charge for his first game on Boxing Day.

It’s a fascinating appointment given Juric’s preference for defensive discipline is the opposite of his predecessor Russell Martin, but it’s a well-timed move.

Simon Rusk did away with the Martin philosophy to secure Southampton their first away clean sheet of the season at Fulham last time out.

Saints’ passing rate of 80 per cent was their lowest in a league game since Ruben Selles was manager, while their 36 clearances were a season-high and their single possession won in the final third a season-low.

Juric can therefore continue where Rusk left off, and prioritize a low block and make Southampton difficult to beat. He will instruct his players to dig their heels in, stay compact and minimize risk.

It will be a radical departure from the style of play fans have become accustomed to.

The appointment is also well-timed because on Boxing Day Southampton play the first of three Premier League games they hope to pick up points from.

They travel to Crystal Palace, who are 16th in the league, then host Brentford, who have picked up a paltry point on their travels, but before that welcome a West Ham United side on Boxing Day with a win in seven at away field.

Southampton’s next three games

If Southampton can start that sequence with a win, they can put a run together and get back within touching distance of their relegation rivals.

Nottingham Forest will target Spurs’ high line

Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest side are disarmingly straightforward in how they play. They sit back, absorb pressure and surge forward on the break, relying on set pieces and crosses to supply Chris Wood.

It’s exactly the kind of strategy that could worry Spurs, whose commitment to constant high pressing and attacking in numbers was their undoing again in a 6-3 defeat at Liverpool.

It’s easy to imagine Anthony Elanga (who has scored in each of his last two games) and Callum Hudson-Odoi being unleashed behind Spurs’ high line when counter-attacking opportunities arise.

More good news for Forest is that Spurs have not been strong defenders this season. Their expected goals (xG) conceded from set pieces is 6.59, with only Man Utd, Leicester and Southampton conceding more.

Wood will be a big threat.

Can Fulham improve on terrible derby record?

The West London derby is rarely an interesting fixture for the neutrals, simply because Fulham have such a poor record in this fixture.

They have won just two of their 34 Premier League matches against Chelsea (D11 L21), giving them a six per cent win rate, the lowest against any team in Premier League history.

It’s a dismal record to hold against your bitterest rivals, but if a Fulham team were to break it, it’s this one.

Fulham have shown their tenacity in consecutive draws against Arsenal and Liverpool, and are now unbeaten in five Premier League games.

Meanwhile, Chelsea’s 0-0 draw with Everton perhaps suggests they are starting to slow down after an explosive start to life under Enzo Maresca.

There is a small window of opportunity here for a famous Fulham win.

How far can Bournemouth go this winter?

Four wins in their last five Premier League games have lifted Bournemouth to fifth place, the highest they have ever been in the top flight this late in a season.

It could be even better. Victory against Palace, who lost 5-1 to Arsenal at the weekend, could lift Andoni Iraola’s side into the top four ahead of their games against Fulham (A) and Everton (H) heading into the FA Cup break.

One step at a time, but there is good reason for fans to start dreaming of European football.

Bournemouth are underperforming against their expected goals (xG) more than any other team in the division (-7.6), scoring 27 goals from an expected goals (xG) of 34.6.

With Justin Kluivert starting to score regularly and Evanilson improving all the time, the Cherries could soon start moving towards the mean.

Remarkably, they may not have peaked yet.

Can Kamara and Onana help end Villa’s poor away form?

Aston Villa have lost four of their last five Premier League games against Newcastle United, including both meetings last season, memorably losing 5-1 at St James’ Park on the opening day.

They have also lost each of their last four Premier League away games in the Premier League, perhaps pointing to Eddie Howe’s side coming out on top.

But Villa were transformed on Saturday lunchtime by Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara starting together in central midfield for the first time. They made nine tackles and committed seven fouls between them against Man City in an impressive display at Villa Park.

Their selection also forced Youri Tielemans into the no. The 10 position and Morgan Rogers out to the left, with positive results for both, while Jhon Duran got his fourth winning goal of the season.

Duran’s winner v Man City

All in all, it was a near-perfect afternoon, although the same could be said of Newcastle, whose successive 4-0 wins have been partly inspired by Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali finding form together.

A pair of in-form sides with two elite-level central midfields: this should be a very high-quality encounter with far-reaching implications in the pursuit of UEFA Champions League football.

Will Salah reach 100 Anfield goals on Boxing Day?

Leicester have lost their last two Premier League games by an aggregate score of 7-0, while Liverpool are unbeaten in 21 in all competitions (W18 D3), their longest unbeaten run since November 2021.

It would be one of the shock results of the season if Ruud van Nistelrooy denied the league leaders, especially with Mohamed Salah in this form.

Salah, who has scored 26 goals in 16 Premier League games this season, has scored 99 goals in 141 home Premier League games and, with a goal at Anfield on Boxing Day, would become the fourth-fastest player to hit triple figures in the Premier League era after Alan Shearer (91 apps), Thierry Henry (113) and Sergio Aguero (125).

Two of those goals were for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, but that means it will take a Salah hat-trick to make it 100 Premier League goals at Anfield.

Against this Leicester defense you wouldn’t put it past him.

Matches on December 27

Can Brighton end their winless run?

The days when Fabian Hurzeler’s team pushed for top spot feel like a long time ago.

Five Premier League games without a win leaves Brighton & Hove Albion all the way down to ninth, drawing 1-1 with West Ham last time out, typical of a developing profligacy in front of goal.

Brentford at the Amex Stadium offer a great chance to put things right.

Thomas Frank’s Bees have picked up only one point away from home, which is not surprisingly the fewest in the Premier League this season.

Only Southampton have faced more total shots (312) and more shots on target (113) in the Premier League this season than Brentford (309 shots, 112 on target) and their 30 goals conceded from open play is also the league’s worst record.

Brighton supporters will see this as an opportunity for their once free-scoring attack to click back into gear – and not before time.

It has been four games since Joao Pedro or Kaoru Mitoma managed a goal or an assist. That has to change sooner or later.

Can the form of Jesus cover the loss of Saka?

Arsenal fans have been hit with the news they always feared would come: Bukayo Saka has picked up a hamstring injury that will keep him out of action for “many weeks”, according to Mikel Arteta.

Those looking for consolation can find it in the form of Gabriel Jesus, who scored five goals against Crystal Palace in four days last week, as many as he had in his previous 45 games for the club.

All five goals were expertly taken too, giving Arsenal the killer instinct in the penalty area that they have so often lacked this season.

Jesu’s first MW17 goal against Palace

But can he really make up for Saka’s absence? The 23-year-old has 15 goals in 16 Premier League games this season, contributing 44 per cent of Arsenal’s total.

Worse, we already know what can happen when the Gunners lose a key player. During Martin Odegaard’s absence, Arsenal won just 11 points from seven Premier League games.