Cousins rallying points to pitfalls in QB succession plan

On December 22, 2024By Littum

For NFL teams, quarterback succession plans can be one of the most difficult procedures to pull off smoothly. Just ask the Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta surprised people around the league at the 2024 NFL Draft when it selected former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with choice no. 8 a month after signing veteran QB Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal. The scrutinized decision was later defended by team management as a safety move to avoid quarterback purgatory.

More from Sportico.com

The plan seemed to be for the 24-year-old Penix to study under Cousins before eventually taking over as QB1 down the road. But eight months later, with Cousins in year one of his contract and the team’s first playoff appearance in seven years still within reach, the Falcons already seem ready to move on. After Cousins underwhelmed Monday night, the latest in a string of subpar performances, Atlanta announced it would bench the veteran in favor of Penix, who will make his first career start against the New York Giants this Sunday.

“You see the consequence when carefully thought out plans go awry,” former NFL super agent Leigh Steinberg said in a telephone interview. “It must have been an exciting decision for the coach and the front office.”

The move has suddenly destabilized the team’s quarterback situation while creating a potentially costly transition for the Falcons, who are poised to pay Cousins $27.5 million guaranteed next season regardless of the 14 starts he makes this season, that’s it for him with the franchise. In the event the Falcons cut or trade him, his dead cap hit will likely still impair their roster-building flexibility through 2026.

“If you’re not going to play your franchise quarterback with heavily guaranteed money in a critical situation because you think you have a better chance to win with (Penix), that’s like a hand grenade thrown in the middle of this well-thought-out plan, ” said Steinberg, who has represented a record eight No. 1 draft picks, including former Falcons star quarterback Steve Bartkowski.

The Green Bay Packers are arguably the league’s best at quarterback succession planning. For over 20 years, they were led by current and future Pro Football Hall of Famers in Brett Favre (now retired) and Aaron Rodgers (now with the New York Jets). Packers starter Jordan Love, who replaced Rodgers last year after serving as the backup for three seasons, has been considered for Pro Bowl honors and continues to show promise. At least enough for the franchise to sign him to one four-year, $220 million deal (including a record $75 million signing bonus), making him one of the league’s highest-paid players.

Every NFL team strives for that level of continuity and stability. It is difficult to perform. Cases like the Kansas City Chiefs selecting reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes in the first round in 2017 while still having then-veteran starter Alex Smith are rarer than gold. It’s more common for general managers to snag a potential long-term starter in the draft and pray they’ll be ready when their number is called. Daniel Jones, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones and Mitchell Trubisky all failed to replace their team’s incumbents.

The Falcons’ opponent this week has had its share own quarterback drama as it still tries to fill the shoes Eli Manning left five years ago. The Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts are additional teams that could see a new franchise quarterback in this upcoming draft in April.

Thus, the Falcons are just the latest team to exemplify why seamless quarterback succession plans are difficult to pull off. Atlanta has had a gap since trading its all-time passing leader Matt Ryan in 2022. The offseason move to pay Cousins more than anyone else in this year’s free-agent class and select Penix despite other positional needs was perhaps an overcorrection. Now, the team is staring at a potential dead cap figure of $65 million, which would be second all-time behind Russell Wilson, who left Denver earlier this year with a total dead cap value of $85 million, the most in NFL history. If the Falcons release Cousins after June 1, however, they could spread this over two years and absorb a $40 million cap hit next season instead.

While the Falcons have pushed the button on their succession plan earlier than expected, the lefty Penix could rise to the occasion despite limited preseason game repetitions. The decision to give guaranteed money to a then-35-year-old Cousins coming off an Achilles injury can be forgiven if Penix can remind people why he was one of the most electric players in college football last year. He finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting while throwing for nearly 5,000 yards and leading the Huskies to the national championship game.

Cousins, who has more than $294 million in career earnings, has passed the torch with class, but it remains to be seen if his understudy is ready for the starring role. It is uncertain what expectations the team now has for Penix this season, but it is clear that the Falcons’ QB strategy is in overdrive and represents league-wide dilemma presented to teams that have handed out guaranteed money and later want to trade the player.

“This is a very dramatic move to make this late in the season in the midst of trying to be a wild card team,” Steinberg added. “It sends a clear signal that in a time of crisis they are turning to a young quarterback.”

The best from Sportico.com