Wind warning for travel before Christmas, but will it snow on Christmas Day? – Liam Dutton – Channel 4 News

A windy big travel weekend

Christmas Day is less than a week away, and some of us will no doubt be wondering what the weather has in store for Christmas.

The upcoming big travel weekend could present some challenges for people on the move, with a deep low pressure area passing just north of the UK.

This will bring windy weather for everyone, but especially for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England. There will be strong gales, but more exposed areas of northern and western Scotland, along with the north coast of Northern Ireland, could see gusts of 50-75mph.

Yellow weather warnings have been issued because such strong gusts will cause a risk of travel disruption – especially for ferries – but also high-sided vehicles. There may also be some local power outages.

Along with the strong wind, all areas will be hit by heavy showers or longer periods of rain, with sleet and snow over the hills and mountains.

Beyond the weekend, however, it will settle significantly, as high pressure begins to build.

Definition of a white Christmas

Before I move on to the details of Christmas Day, it is worth outlining the definition of a white Christmas for the UK.

For the Met Office to declare a white Christmas, a single snowflake must be observed falling for 24 hours on 25 December by an official Met Office observer or an automated weather station.

How likely is a white Christmas in the UK?

White Christmas for the UK is relatively common. Since 1960, about half of the years have seen at least 5 percent of weather stations record snowfall on Christmas Day.

However, there are regional differences, meaning that snow falling on Christmas Day generally tends to be more common the further north and the higher up you go.

Widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day happens much less often than falling snow. Only four years have passed since 1960 when more than 40% of UK weather stations reported snow at 9 am on Christmas Day – in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.

When was the last white Christmas?

The last white Christmas was last year, when 11% of weather stations reported snowfall, but none with snow on the ground.

Before this, 2022, 2021 and 2020 were also white Christmases, though with fewer than 10% of weather stations seeing snow fall on the big day.

How about this year?

In a nutshell, if you’re hoping for a white Christmas this year, you’re going to be disappointed.

Despite still being six days away, there are unusually strong and consistent signals from all weather models for a calm, mild and largely dry Christmas Day.

Cloud amounts will vary, with the cloudiest skies in the north and west, and some rain and drizzle likely across western Scotland.

The best of any sunshine will be in the south and east, where temperatures could reach as high as 13C – which is around five degrees above average for the season.

There are also signs that the calm weather could continue for a few days after Christmas, which will be music to the ears of those who travel a lot.

As always, the final caveat is that Christmas is still six days away and there may be some minor adjustments to the forecast between now and then.

But the chance of anything cold and snowy looks extremely unlikely this year – despite what some tabloid outlets have been incessantly and frivolously writing for the past few weeks.