2024 NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections, odds

On By Littum

We’re through Week 15 of the 2024 NFL regular season. Although the postseason is still three weeks away, we’re taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX. Which teams are in good form? Who still has a lot of work to do to ultimately make the 14-team field?

We used ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for each team to make the postseason, win its division and even make the Super Bowl. We also looked at the potential for teams in the playoff picture to finish in specific seeds and the potential for teams out of the playoff picture to finish with the top draft pick. Here’s everything you need right now.

Last update: 17 December at 10 A.M

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AFC | NFC | Seeds | no. 1 choice

AFC Playoff Projection

The Chiefs, Bills and Texans have all won their respective division titles. The Steelers are also officially in the playoffs, and they can clinch the AFC North with a win against the Ravens. That means all four AFC divisions could have champions on Saturday night.

The Ravens, Broncos and Chargers all look good to make the playoffs, so there might not be much to play for in this conference after Week 16.

  • The Ravens can win with a win against Pittsburgh or losses from Indianapolis and Miami.

  • The Broncos can win with a win against the Chargers or losses by Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Miami.

  • The Chargers can win with a win against Denver plus losses by Indianapolis and Miami.

Six teams have been eliminated in the AFC: Titans, Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Jaguars and Browns.

Projecting the NFC playoffs

The Lions, Eagles and Vikings have all clinched playoff spots, and the Packers are on the verge of joining them. They need a win against the Saints. But they could also come in with a loss to the Falcons and then a loss to either the Seahawks or Rams. Beyond that, there’s still a lot up in the air in NFC.

The Eagles take the NFC East with a win over Washington, and the NFC South looks to be a two-team race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, although Tampa Bay is favored (80% to win the division). The NFC West is wide open. The Rams have a 53% chance in both the playoffs and the division. But the Seahawks and Cardinals are both very much alive there.

The Commanders can clinch a playoff spot with a win, a Falcons loss and then another loss by either the Rams or Seahawks.

The Giants, Bears and Panthers have been eliminated, and the Cowboys, Saints and 49ers are heading in that direction. Seven NFC teams have elimination scenarios this weekend, and four of them — Cincinnati, Dallas, New Orleans and San Francisco — are out with one loss and no further requirements.

Check out our NFL Playoff Machine

Simulate your own scenarios and check out the latest playoff image: Try the 2024 NFL Playoff image.

Sowing projections

Here are the odds for playoff teams to fall into each slot once the field is set. ESPN’s FPI is pretty confident Houston will finish 4th in the AFC, but it’s not certain on other playoff contenders. For example, the Ravens have a 24% chance to finish third, a 42% chance to finish fifth and a 25% chance to finish sixth. And as for the top spot, the Chiefs have the 78% advantage. They would win this weekend with a win and a Bills loss.

The close divisional races in the NFC mean that the no. 3 and 4 seeds are very much at stake. Interestingly, seed no. 5 all but guaranteed for second place in the NFC North. And with regard to No. 1 seed, the Lions have the advantage over the Eagles and Vikings at the moment – but the gap has narrowed.

Race for 2025 no. 1 draft pick

The Giants (2-12) are eliminated from playoff contention and appear to be in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 in April. After releasing Daniel Jones, New York will certainly look to the quarterback class. But the Patriots and Panthers are also in the mix for the top pick. See the entire draft order here, which is updated on Tuesdays.

NFL playoff schedule

11.-13. January 2025: Wildcard round
18.-19. January: Division round
January 26: AFC and NFC championship games
February 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)