Where the Yankees’ payroll, priorities stand after the Cody Bellinger trade

It seemed inevitable that Cody Bellinger would end up in pinstripes — the Yankees and Kids intensified trade negotiations the moment Juan Soto signed on Mets. That became even more certain when the Northsiders acquired Kyle Tucker from Astroscreating an outfield logjam and making Bellinger’s substantial 2025 salary that much more of a priority to get off the books. As with most things in life, it came down to the money, and the two parties finally struck a deal on Tuesday.

While he likely will never repeat the heights of his 2019 MVP campaign in LA, Bellinger offers a significant upgrade over some of the bats the Yankees trotted out at the bottom of their order in 2024, delivering a season with 4, 4 wins as late as 2023. There were questions about what position Bellinger would fill before the deal was made official – he split time between the outfield and first base over the past two seasons – but that uncertainty was apparently put to bed minutes after the trade was announced (although Aaron Boone later dismissed the concept of a direct decision).

As Josh noted in his post yesterday, this is a win-win situation for the Yankees from a positional standpoint, assuming Bellinger actually sticks to center. He is a superior defender to Aaron Judge out there. This allows the skipper to slide back to the right, allowing his cannon arm to play up, while also reducing the amount of ground he has to cover over the course of a season.

It is important that the Yankees made this positional decision so early. That allows Jasson Domínguez to devote his winter to getting reps in left field. El Marciano made a couple of high-profile mistakes on the left wing late last season – for which he was somewhat unfairly maligned given his limited preparation time – and it cost him a spot in the postseason lineup. Now, with an offseason where he can focus solely on learning a new position, that should allow him to do what he does best when the season rolls around: hustle baseball.

The Yankees sent Cody Poteet to the Cubs, with Chicago kicking in $5 million — $2.5 million due in each of 2025 and 2026 — to complete the deal. That brings us to the tricky part — determining exactly what effect this deal has on the Yankees’ payroll. When a player is traded, you typically take the remaining guaranteed money and divide it by the remaining guaranteed years to calculate the average annual value (AAV) hit for the team’s Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) number.

Adding Bellinger’s $27.5 million salary for 2025 to his $25 million player option for 2026 and $5 million buyout minus the $5 million the Cubs eat brings us to $52.5 million divided by two for an AAV of $26.25 million. However, various other sources report different values ​​for Bellinger’s 2025 CBT hit, as the nature of the opportunity are somewhat complicating factors. Baseball Prospectus’ Cot’s Baseball Contracts feature lists Bellinger’s CBT number on $26,666,667 while Joel Sherman from New York Post claims it is 25.46 million dollars for 2025.

The average of those three values ​​is a bit over $26 million, so for simplicity we’ll use that $26 million figure to determine where the payroll sits. According to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource, this brings the Yankees payroll to a hair over 289 million dollars in 2025. That leaves them with just under $12 million to spend before exceeding the fourth and final CBT threshold — the “Steve Cohen tax” — above which they would be taxed at a rate of 110 percent of every dollar spent.

With the outfield finally fully developed, the Yankees still have two glaring holes on the right side of the infield. They remain linked to Christian Walker and have contacted Alex Bregman’s camp, the addition of a third baseman allowing them to return Jazz Chisholm Jr. to his more natural position at the cornerstone. But making one, let alone both, of those additions would blow the payroll beyond the most punitive tax threshold, something principal owner Hal Steinbrenner has repeatedly expressed a reluctance to do.

Thus, barring a change of tune from the owner, the Yankees find themselves having to thread the needle to fill the remaining roster spots. If someone like Walker, Bregman or one of the other remaining free agents comes on board, the Yankees may have to trade some of the other guys on their roster to make room in the CBT equation. They have two months left until pitchers and catchers report, so while we may have to wait for clear answers, there is time for them to develop.