NFL playoff picture, Week 15: Eagles join Lions atop NFC; Rams take control of NFC West

On By Littum

Unfortunately for the Detroit Lions, the Philadelphia Eagles aren’t going away. They just keep winning. After their 10th straight win, a 27-13 rout of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, the 12-2 Eagles are tied with the Lions atop the NFC.

The Lions, who lost a 48-42 shootout to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, still have a No. 1 seed due to their superior record against NFC foes (8-1 to the Eagles’ 7-2). However, there are still three games left to play this season, and with Detroit defenders getting injured at an alarming rate, it’s very possible that the Eagles will be the NFC team resting up for the first week of the playoffs, while the lions will have to fend off a wild-card foe.

Meanwhile, in the AFC, it hasn’t been the prettiest season for the Houston Texans, but with their 20-12 win over the Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts’ loss to the Denver Broncos, they won the AFC South title for the second straight season. Houston is guaranteed a home playoff game and could spend the rest of the season fighting to improve its seeding.

As for the rest of the NFL, this is where things stand in the playoff picture with two Monday night games still on tap to end Week 15.

Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure no. The 1 seed and winning the Super Bowl are all via Athletics‘s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock.

AFC playoff picture

Seed Team Record Week 15 result

z–1

13-1

W vs. CLE

z–2

11-3

W vs. THE

x–3

10-4

L vs. PHI

z–4

9-5

W vs. MIA

5

9-5

W vs. NEW

6

9-5

W vs. IN

7

8-6

L vs. TB

x — Finished the playoff spot | z — Decided division title | * — Tile no. 1 seed

Even their 14-point wins are ugly. Patrick Mahomes left in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury, so his status is going to be an issue. He played through a high ankle sprain a few postseasons ago, but the Chiefs have added another level of difficulty to their quest for a third straight Super Bowl.

Remaining schedule: vs. Texans, at Steelers, vs. Broncos

Odds: To get to playoffs: 100% | To earn farewell: 78.3% | To win the Super Bowl: 17.8%

Quarterback Josh Allen has been the most unstoppable player in the league for most of the season, but the last two games against the Rams and Lions were particularly absurd. He has thrown for 704 yards and five touchdowns and rushed for 150 yards and five scores. The Bills have scored 90 points on 14 scoring drives and four punts over that stretch. There’s a not-so-subtle problem, though, as Allen has needed every bit of that production just to go 1-1 in the two games in which the Bills are giving up 86 points.

Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots vs. Jets, at Patriots

Odds: To get to playoffs: 100% | To earn farewell: 21% | To win the Super Bowl: 12.8%

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The Steelers were outmatched by the Eagles, which may say more about Philly than anything else, but the Steelers only have a one-game lead over the Ravens with their rematch coming up. The Steelers are 4-1 against teams in the playoff picture, so they have a good resume. But their final stretch is terrifying and there is little room for error.

Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Chiefs vs. Bengals

Odds: To get to playoffs: 100% | To earn farewell: 0.7% | To win the Super Bowl: 4.2%

The Texans, now the AFC South champions, have won two in a row for the first time since their three-game winning streak from Weeks 4-6, but it will be a challenge to keep the good times rolling with upcoming dates against the Chiefs and Ravens. But if the Texans answer the bell against two of the AFC’s best, they’ll add to a resume that already includes a win against the Bills and would be considered a real postseason threat.

Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

Odds: To get to playoffs: 100% | To earn farewell: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 2.8%

In a statistical oddity, running back Derrick Henry has not scored a touchdown in three consecutive games, the first time that has happened to him in a single season since 2018. Henry has 318 yards from scrimmage during that stretch, so he has been productive despite a lack of visits to the end zone.

Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

Odds: To get to playoffs: 98% | To earn farewell: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 4.7%

The Broncos won the Peyton Manning Bowl in large part thanks to Colts running back Jonathan Taylor inexplicably fumbling through the end zone in a moment that completely changed the trajectory of both teams’ seasons. Had the Colts won, they would have pulled within a game of the Broncos and claimed the head-to-head tiebreaker with a significantly easier schedule over the past three weeks. The Broncos’ last three opponents have a combined record of 27-15, while the Colts’ last three (vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars) are 8-34 and all in the mix for the No. 1. Facing a two-touchdown deficit at the time of Taylor’s touchdown, the Broncos instead closed out the game with 24 straight points and a blowout victory.

Remaining schedule: at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

Odds: To make the playoffs: 91.1% | To earn farewell: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 3.4%

It looked like the Chargers were on to something a month ago when they dispatched the Bengals to improve to 7-3. But they have since lost three of four with losses to the Ravens, Chiefs and Buccaneers. They have an interesting one coming up against the Broncos as they try to improve on their 1-5 record against teams in the playoffs. The win, of course, came in Week 6 in Denver.

Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

Odds: To make the playoffs: 82.9%| To earn farewell: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 2.8%

• Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
• Miami Dolphins (6-8)
• Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)

Eliminated

• New York Jets (4-10)
• Cleveland Browns (3-11)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)
• Tennessee Titans (3-11)
• New England Patriots (3-11)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

NFC playoff picture

Seed Team Record Week 15 result

x–1

12-2

L vs. BUF

x–2

12-2

W vs. PIT

3

8-6

W vs. LAC

4

8-6

W against SF

x–5

11-2

TBD vs. CHI

6

10-4

W vs. SEA

7

9-5

W vs. NO

x — Finished the playoff spot | z — Decided division title | * — Cluster no. 1 seed

The Lions had a bad day against a great Bills team. It happens. The concern, however, is whether they are more susceptible to this type of performance due to their myriad injuries on defense, especially with the other NFC powers hitting their stride. The latest blows: Coach Dan Campbell said he is not optimistic about the chances of star defensive tackle Alim McNeill (knee) or cornerback Carlton Davis (concussion) returning this season after both suffered injuries Sunday.

Remaining schedule: at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

Odds: To get to playoffs: 100% | To earn farewell: 54% | To win the Super Bowl: 17%

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The Eagles might have had the best Sunday in the league, fending off the hated Steelers, finishing tied with the Lions atop the NFC and answering questions about their passing game. Running back Saquon Barkley was limited for most of the game and quarterback Jalen Hurts went 25-of-32 for 290 yards and two touchdowns. Wideouts AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 19 catches, 219 yards and both scores.

Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Cowboys vs. Giants

Odds: To get to playoffs: 100% | To earn farewell: 39.1% | To win the Super Bowl: 13.4%

The Bucs are riding a four-game winning streak on the heels of a four-game skid, and this was a signature win against the Chargers after previously taking advantage of an easier stretch of opponents. They hung just 40 points on the no. 1-ranked scoring defense in the NFL. The Bucs don’t get as much attention because they’re in the NFC South, but they have wins against the Commanders, Lions, Eagles and Chargers. It will be difficult if they reach the playoffs.

Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Panthers vs. Saints

Odds: To make the playoffs: 86.5% | To earn farewell: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 2.6%

This league can be as tight as it is unforgiving. The Rams have won seven of nine to take over the NFC West lead and knock the Seahawks out of the playoff picture. It’s a tough break for Seattle, as its four-game winning streak was snapped with a loss to the Packers. It still looks like the division will come down to the regular season finale between the Rams and Seahawks.

Remaining schedule: at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

Odds: To make the playoffs: 55.4% | To earn farewell: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 1.8%

The Vikings, who have already clinched a playoff spot and host the Bears on Monday night, have won six of their last seven meetings against their NFC North rival. But their last three losses in the series have come at home. After the Bears nearly stunned the Vikings in Week 12, scoring 11 points in the final 22 seconds to force overtime, the Vikings should surely be prepared to avoid a catastrophic loss.

Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

Odds: To get to playoffs: 100% | To earn farewell: 6.9% | To win the Super Bowl: 5.8%

The Packers just made a pretty good Seahawks team look completely overmatched in their own building, which is important because they’ll need to win on the road to make the playoffs. They’ve also beaten the Rams and Seahawks on the road, so the Packers don’t care who wins the NFC West if it ends up being their wild-card matchup.

Remaining schedule: vs. saints, with vikings, vs. bears

Odds: To get to playoffs: 99.9% | To earn farewell: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 5.5%

The Commanders held on for dear life after third-string QB Spencer Rattler nearly rallied the Saints from a 17-0 deficit, which won’t alleviate some of their defensive concerns. The Commanders are 0-4 against teams in the playoff field and have another chance to prove themselves next week against the Eagles. It will be a thrilling three-week trip as the Commanders try to hold on to their wild card spot.

Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

Odds: To make the playoffs: 86.9% | To earn farewell: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 1.6%

• Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
• Arizona Cardinals (7-7)
• Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
• San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
• Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
• New Orleans Saints (5-9)

Eliminated

• Chicago Bears (4-9)
• Carolina Panthers (3-11)
• New York Giants (2-12)

(Photo of Jalen Hurts: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)