Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Connecticut Huskies Prediction, Odds & Picks

Saturday night brings us an exciting contest between a pair of college basketball heavyweights as the Gonzaga Bulldogs (7-2) prepare to take on the UConn Huskies (7-3) at Madison Square Garden. The Bulldogs enter this game coming off their second overtime loss of the season, falling to Kentucky 90-89 on Saturday. Their only other loss comes against West Virginia in late November, but the Bulldogs still have an impressive mid-December resume. The Zags have wins over Baylor, Arizona St., San Diego St. and Indiana and has the 13th ranked strength of schedule. The Huskies’ schedule hasn’t been quite as difficult, ranking 256th in strength of schedule, and they haven’t been able to take advantage. UConn had a disastrous outing at the Maui Invitational, finishing dead last in the field with losses to Memphis, Colorado and Dayton. Despite the rough start, Bob Hurley and his team have responded nicely, picking up wins over Baylor and a road win against Texas.

UConn’s biggest knock-on has been their defense, which ranks 87th in adjusted defensive rating, up from 4th last season. Their over-aggressive style has hurt them at times, and it becomes extremely evident when you see that their opponents are averaging 23.4 attempts from the charity stripe per game. game. Their offense, which ranks 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency, has largely made up for their defensive struggles. The Bulldogs have been a much more well-rounded team, ranking top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. While I give the Zags the edge on Saturday night, the value seems to lie with the game total. These teams are top 5 offensive units, but the current total of 152.5 points is just too high for my liking. If you remove the overtime periods, Gonzaga is giving up just 65.9 ppg, while UConn actually does even better at 62.6 ppg. The Huskies have hurt themselves defensively, but they held Baylor and Texas well below their season averages and are showing signs of improvement. Coupled with the fact that UConn is playing at a snail’s pace and both of these teams haven’t played since last weekend, a lower scoring game is within reach. I will support its current number.

Gonzaga vs UConn Prediction: Below 152.5 (-110) available at the time of publication. Can be played on that track.

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