‘Bama Basketball Breakdown: Ducks bring efficient offense and tenacious defense to Players Era finals

If you want a high score shootout, this is it could be your game.

Why just “could?” Because for all the deserved credit for these teams’ offensive firepower, it will likely be a defensive effort that wins it. The Ducks and the Tide have shown some tenacity at times this season, and nowhere was that more evident than in ‘Bama’s win over No. 4 Houston and the Ducks’ suffocating effort against the physical San Diego State Aztecs.

Let’s take a look at this one.

---

Tale of the Tape: Oregon (7-0) vs. No. 9 Alabama (6-1)

Spread (Total): Alabama -6 (O/U 165.5)

Opponent KenPom: 23 (21 Attack, 35 Defense, 172 Pace)
Opponent Evan Miya: 22 (16 Attack, 38 Defense, 188 Pace)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 33 (33 attack, 51 defense, 181 pace)
Opponent NET: Q1
Opponent’s best win: Texas A&M (No. 27)
Opponent’s Worst Loss: REACH

Alabama KenPom: 9 (3 Attack, 46 Defense, 4 Pace)
Alabama Evan Miya: 7 (3 Attack, 30 Defense, 2 Pace)
Alabama Bart Torvik: 8 (3 Attack, 30 Defense, 5 Pace)
NET Ranking: REACH
Best win: no. 4 Houston
Worst loss: no. 15 Purdue Like It’s “Bad”

The Tide’s optional 95-90 shooting against Rutgers was perhaps predictable. Alabama came into it with some really dead legs, emotionally drained, and at the end of a sixth straight game against a tournament team. Add in outstanding individual efforts from the Scarlet Knights’ dynamic freshman guards, and ‘Bama’s usual struggles against talented backcourts, and voila.

Their reward for all that? The surprisingly undefeated Oregon Ducks, who advanced to the million dollar finals after two physical ten-point victories over the A&M Aggies and the San Diego State Aztecs. The Ducks’ offense is grabbing the headlines, but their better-than-expected defense has led the way.

What do we know about Oregon? On paper, they’re just about the most stereotypical basketball program you’ll see. A bit tall, but not towering (about 6’6″ on average). Shoot an average amount of threes, but the offense doesn’t rely on them (only 34% of their offense comes from the perimeter. Gets to the stripe an above-average amount, but their offense doesn’t rely on freebies (although that’s helped by 21 attempts per game) when they have to go out and guard the perimeter.

So what do are they doing well?

First, it’s a veteran team with a lot of returning chemistry. In the era of the one-and-done rent-a-list, it usually helps you. Second, they’re solid all-around, the ultimate jack-of-all-trades team – and they do it without fouling up much. People who think the intermediate jumper is dead, or that motion free looks from 12 feet is a lot of art, have never seen the Ducks play. And not only do they take them, but they make the most of them, hitting 50% from the floor. Is it amazing? No. Alabama’s 62% (12th nationally) is amazing.

But the Ducks are just so fundamentally sound and above average in almost everything. They remind you a lot of the Notre Dame team the Tide faced a few years ago in their first round Tourney exit. In fact, if you wanted to create a generic 10- or 11-seed Major Conference NCAA Tournament team, you could do worse than using the Ducks as your platonic exemplar. I bet their final record looks like that too. Something like 22-10.

The Ducks are not a great perimeter shooting team. They are a post-led team starting with 7’0” Nate Bittle. He is by far the best shooter the Tide has faced all season. He’s 73% inside the lane, shoots another 50% beyond it and isn’t afraid to shoot from deep. Although he is a gross 3-18 from that distance, it keeps defenders honest. He leads the teams in scoring (14 PG) blocks (2+), rebounds (9.5) and is the key component the Tide will need to defend tonight. The offense runs through him. To make matters worse, he is the Ducks’ second-best free throw shooter — 86%. In fact, Oregon has a trio of guys who flirt at 90%, so it’s not a group you want to send a bunch to the line. The rest of the post guys are just warm bodies and they add about 9 PPG / 8 RPG.

On the outside, the Ducks start PG Jackson Shelstad. He’s not a great shooter (just over 20%, and not much better on the floor at 34%), but he sees the court well and is great in the two-man game with Bittle. He leads the way with 4 APG, and is also an active defender and a very capable rebounder. TJ Bamba is their second leading scorer and he is more of a combo than a true SG; he also has a great ability to find open looks and is also second in assists.

Outside of Bittle, the next best player is probably wing Brandon Angel — he’s a 44% shooter from three, is third on the team in scoring, second in rebounds and blocks, and is a damn good FT shooter (almost 90%). Jadrian Tracy is the third guard in the starting spot, and also the most mercurial: some nights he might go ten, the next night he’s shut out.

It’s not a deep bench at all, but the one guy to watch is sixth man Keeshawn Barthelemy. He may eventually win a starting spot because good things happen when he’s on the floor. He’s the best defender, adding nearly 10 a night with a pair of assists and rebounds, and outside of Texas, A&M has reached double figures in every game he’s played. Keeshawn is also the second-best perimeter shooter (43%), and he does all of this in limited minutes (under 22 a night). Besides stopping Bittle, defending Bamba and Angel, I bet it will be a big defensive task to keep Barthelemy from getting hot off the bench.

---

Bottom line

The Ducks want to feed the post, and combined with an average tempo schedule that doesn’t get pilly, it could finally be the night Cliff’s skill set is used to its fullest extent. Little Mo also has potential to come in here, as well as see some more minutes logged efor Sherrell. Perhaps just as important to the Tide, OU is an active defensive team, but there are few overwhelming defenders, and the Ducks will surrender a good look at the basket outside the post. Not a Houston-esque kind of situation, but a familiar story plays out here for ‘Bama: force the tempo of the game, then make your shots.

Alabama will also need to be sound defensively and rely on positioning instead of aggressive hacking. The Ducks aren’t a great free-throw team, but there are some great individual shooters working their way to the line. Rutgers stayed in that game Thursday because of all the free throws. We’ve seen it happen in other games as well (Illinois, for example).

Similarly, the Tide needs to focus on finding its open man and then getting the open shots. The Ducks don’t foul much, despite how aggressive they are in man defense. Alabama can’t just hope to get to the line like they usually do, and especially not with a do-it-all rim protector like Bittle. If the tide can get the Ducks in foul trouble, Oregon is in trouble. This is a very thin bench.

That’s how you see

It’s another late: 8:00 central again on TBS. By then we should also know ‘Bama’s post-Arn Bow fortunes, and much more of the national picture will be available to those who share their vested interests today.

Forecast

Overall, this is a very favorable matchup for Alabama. The Tide has the size and physicality down this year to help mitigate the danger that Bittle poses. It’s a better shooting team, it has a deeper bench and it rebounds better offensively than the Ducks do defensively. And it is simply more talented.

Vegas sees this as a higher scoring game due to a decent efficiency defense and a pair of well above average offensive teams. But outside of a soup can against Directional UC, the Ducks do not live up to the high score. They play pretty slow and flirt with the upper-70s, maybe 80, most nights. When ‘Bama wants to play defense, they can. And for the first time all season, the heart of the opposition isn’t a horde of terrifying guards that can destroy you with a string of perimeter daggers. Cliff can definitely defile. But Alabama has post presence and enough depth to both play a half-court game and to force its type of game.

That should be enough for a million dollars… and let’s hope the officials decide to swallow some whistles for a change.

84-76 is our call.

Hoping for the best.
Roll Tide.