Live projections for 12-team playoff field

On By Littum

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(This story was updated with new information)

The final week of the college football regular season is here, which means the College Football Playoff is right around the corner.

Several teams were in a comfortable position to reach the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff entering Week 14, while others had some work to do to reach the CFP party this season.

All of the “Power Four” championship games — SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 — also have berths up for grabs, adding to the high stakes that already come in Rivalry Week for some teams.

REQUIRED READING: Texas-Texas A&M rivalry renewal highlights Week 14 college football matchups you can watch

No. 12 Clemson (9-3) and no. 13 Alabama (8-3) entered Week 14 as two teams hoping for some upset as the Tigers and Crimson Tide were the “first two teams out” in Tuesday’s CFP rankings.

But Clemson (9-3) failed to dispatch South Carolina (9-3), falls 17-14 at home on Saturday. And the chaos continued No. 2 Ohio State (10-2) falls, 13-10, to unranked Michigan (7-5) in Columbus.

The games could create movement in the next CFP rankings. To help find out, here’s a live look at our CFP projections as Week 14 games are finalized, including a look at how the CFP Top 25 and projected 12-team bracket looked heading into into the final week of the regular season:

This section will be updated as the games are completed. Last update Saturday, November 30 at midnight ET.

Here’s a look at Week 14 scores and results from the top 20 in the latest US LBM Coaches Poll:

  1. Oregon: beat Washington 49-21
  2. Ohio State: lost to Michigan, 13-10
  3. Texas: beat no. 19 Texas A&M 17-7
  4. Penn State: beat Maryland 44-7
  5. Notre Dame: beat USC 49-35
  6. Georgia: beat Georgia Tech, 44-42 in 8OT (Friday)
  7. Miami: lost to Syracuse 42-38
  8. Tennessee: beat Vanderbilt, 36-23
  9. SMU: beat Cal 38-6
  10. Indiana: beat Purdue 66-0
  11. Boise State: beat Oregon State 34-18
  12. Clemson: lost to no. 14 South Carolina, 17-14
  13. Alabama: beat Auburn 28-14
  14. South Carolina: beat no. 12 Clemson, 17-14
  15. Arizona State: beat Arizona 49-7
  16. Ole Miss: beat Mississippi State 26-14 (Friday)
  17. Iowa State: beat Kansas State 29-21
  18. Tulane: lost to Memphis 34-24 (Thursday)
  19. Texas A&M: lost to no. 3 Texas 17-7
  20. BYU: Houston led 21-10 at halftime

Here’s a live projection of the 12-team CFP once the Week 14 games are completed:

Last updated Saturday 30 November at 11:33 PM ET. Records reflected in Week 14 results.

  1. Oregon (12-0)
  2. Texas (11-1)
  3. SMU (11-1)
  4. Boise State (11-1)
  5. Penn State (11-1)
  6. Notre Dame (11-1)
  7. Georgia (10-2)
  8. Tennessee (10-2)
  9. Ohio State (10-2)
  10. Indiana (11-1)
  11. Miami (10-2)
  12. Arizona State (10-2)

* teams in bold indicate shifts (up/down) in the projected CFP bracket from the current CFP bracket.

TEXAS A&M HOLDS: The Longhorn built a 17-0 lead in the first half before holding on for a 17-7 victory in College Station. Texas A&M’s only points came on a pick-six and a pair of fourth-down stops helped Texas stave off the upset and reach the SEC championship in its first year in the conference.

ARIZONA STATE IN BIG 12 TITLE GAME: ASU blew out rival Arizona to clinch first place in next week’s Big 12 championship game at AT&T Stadium. Arizona State will face either Iowa State or Colorado for a possible CFP berth. Iowa State advances with a BYU win Saturday. Colorado advances with a BYU loss.

NOTRE DAME BEATS USC: One team that doesn’t have to worry about making the CFP is Notre Dame, which with its 49-35 win over rival USC is all but guaranteed to make the playoffs. The Fighting Irishobviously won’t be able to go higher than the fifth seed, as its independent status means it can’t become a conference champion.

Either way, Marcus Freeman and Co. safely expect to host a home game in the first round of the playoffs.

ALABAMA WINS IRON BOWL: The Crimson Tide doesn’t control its own playoff destiny, but Kalen DeBoer and Co. got a lot of help on Saturday with several notable losses, including by ACC teams Miami and Clemson. Alabama also helped itself to a 28-14 victory in a chippy Iron Bowl, keeping its hopes of a playoff spot alive.

Ohio State losing to Michigan won’t have much of an effect on whether Alabama can sneak into the field, but at this point the Crimson Tide should be hoping for mayhem throughout conference championship weekend.

SYRACUSE BEATS MIAMI: Another twist in the upcoming CFP top 25 is coming, again out of the ACC. Kyle McCord led Syracuse to a 42-38 upset of No. 6 in Miami, which beat Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game. Whether the Hurricanes stay in the top 12, however, opens the door for Clemson to make the CFP as conference champion — if it can beat SMU in Charlotte, North Carolina, for the ACC title game.

Will the ACC be a one-bid league? Conference championship weekend should be telling.

SOUTH CAROLINA BEATS CLEMSON: As one of the first two teams coming into Saturday, Clemson didn’t help itself by dropping its final to No. 14 in South Carolina. However, the Gamecocks win over the Tigers is intriguing when it comes to the impact it could have on the CFP Top 25 and 12-team bracket, as South Carolina has now won six in a row.

The Gamecocks were ranked No. 15 in the CFP top 25 on Tuesday — four spots out of the bracket as ASU moved into the No. 12 as the current leader of the Big 12. With a ranked win over Clemson, Shane Beamers’ squad could see a rise heading into Tuesday’s CFP rankings. But a significant increase in the 12-team bracket is unlikely for the Gamecocks, as they will not play in the SEC championship game next Saturday. All in all, likely a “first team out” spot for South Carolina on Tuesday.

OHIO STATE LOSS: With Ohio State no. 2 stunned by Michigan, the top of the CFP bracket took an unexpected hit. With two losses on the season, the Buckeyes were eliminated from the Big Ten championship game and must wait until elimination Sunday, Dec. 8, to confirm their playoff fate. The Buckeyes still own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Indiana and will remain ahead of Indiana in this projection at No. 10 seeds.

TENNESSEE SAFE CFP SPOT: Tennessee looked to be on alert early against Vanderbilt, but the Vols overcame a 14-0 deficit and routed the Commodores 36-23 in Nashville. The win, coupled with the Ohio State loss, giving UT a chance to host a playoff game at Neyland Stadium.

GEORGIA BECOMES ESTABLISHED: Georgia avoided playoff disaster with a 44-42 victory in the eighth overtime thanks to running back Nate Frazier. Kirby Smart’s crew had to overcome a significant amount of adversity Friday vs Yellow jacketsas the Bulldogs came back from two deficits — 17-0 at halftime and 27-13 with five minutes left in the fourth quarter — to force overtime. Bulldogs must meet no. 3 Texas or no. 19 Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 7 for an opportunity to secure one of the top four seeds and a first-round bye.

Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame made up the top five of the CFP top 25 from Tuesday’s CFP rankings. The Ducks and the Buckeyes have been no. 1 and 2 teams in the CFP rankings in each of the last four rankings releases.

Here’s a complete look at the CFP’s top 25 from the latest release of the CFP Rankings from the CFP Selection Committee:

Records updated to reflect Week 14 results

  1. Oregon (11-0)
  2. Ohio State (10-2)
  3. Texas (11-1)
  4. Penn State (11-1)
  5. Notre Dame (11-1)
  6. Miami (10-2)
  7. Georgia (10-2)
  8. Tennessee (10-2)
  9. SMU (11-1)
  10. Indiana (11-1)
  11. Boise State (11-1)
  12. Clemson (9-3)
  13. Alabama (9-3)
  14. Ole Miss (9-3)
  15. South Carolina (9-3)
  16. Arizona State (10-2)
  17. Tulane (9-3)
  18. Iowa State (10-2)
  19. BYU (9-2)
  20. Texas A&M (8-4)
  21. Missouri (9-3)
  22. UNLV (10-2)
  23. Illinois (9-3)
  24. Kansas State (9-3)
  25. Colorado (9-3)

CFP Week 13 Bracket

Here’s a look at how the 12-team CFP bracket looked heading into Week 14:

Overall record reflects record after week 14 result

  1. Oregon (12-0) *
  2. Texas (11-1) *
  3. Miami (10-2) *
  4. Boise State (11-1) *
  5. Ohio State (10-2)
  6. Penn State (11-1)
  7. Notre Dame (11-1)
  8. Georgia (10-2)
  9. Tennessee (10-2)
  10. SMU (11-1)
  11. Indiana (11-1)
  12. Arizona State (10-2) *

* indicates automatic bid as conference champion