Updated Big 12 Championship Game scenarios: Colorado win makes paths clearer

The Big 12 Championship game is still undecided entering the final week of the regular season. However, Colorado‘s victory against Oklahoma State Friday afternoon has helped paint a clearer picture heading into the bulk of the action on Saturday.

As it stands, four teams have two losses in conference play – the Buffaloes, Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU. Five teams – Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia — has three losses in Big 12 play a piece.

Losses from the Sun Devils, Cyclones and Cougars could make the conference title game even more interesting as Saturday unfolds. For now, here are the most likely scenarios for the Big 12 title game before today’s games kick off, courtesy of Bill Bender by The sports news.

Colorado (9-3, 7-2 Big 12)

The Buffaloes have three paths to the conference title game after Friday’s win. The most direct path – that Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU all lose. Colorado would be the clear top team in the conference in terms of record if this happens.

The second scenario might be a little easier to find, as Colorado would be in the championship game if two of those three teams lost. The two remaining two-loss teams would meet in the Big 12 title game.

If Arizona State and Iowa State win, BYU must lose while Texas Tech beats West Virginia. Baylor must also beat Kansas State and Cincinnati beats TCU. That would set up a Big 12 Championship game between Colorado and Iowa State.

The Sun Devils will clinch its spot in the championship if they win on Saturday and Iowa State and BYU lose. They also enter the game if there is a four-way tie between Colorado, ASU, Iowa State and BYU.

But if Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State all win and BYU loses and Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor would have to beat Kansas State while Cincinnati beats TCU. If all of this happens, it will be Colorado vs. Iowa State in the championship game, leaving Arizona State out of the championship game.

If all of this happens, but West Virginia beats Texas Tech, it would instead be Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

Like Arizona State, if Iowa State wins on Saturday and the Sun Devils and Cougars lose, it would be Colorado vs. Iowa State in the conference championship game. But if Iowa State, BYU and Colorado win and Arizona State loses, it will be Iowa State vs. BYU in the championship game.

If Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State all win this week, Texas Tech must defeat West Virginia and Baylor beats Kansas State and Cincinnati beats TCU – Colorado vs. Iowa State would be the championship game.

The WVU-Texas Tech game will again be a major factor in the race in this scenario as well, as if the Mountaineers beat the Red Raiders, it would shake up the title game matchup for Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

BYU (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)

Losses at Iowa State and Arizona State push BYU into the conference title game against Colorado, which is the easiest path.

If BYU and Arizona State win and Iowa State loses, then it will be Arizona State vs. BYU in the Big 12 Championship game.

What if Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU all lose?

If Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU all lose, it opens the door for one of the five three-loss teams — which would expand to eight in this scenario — to face Colorado in the conference championship game.

The game will most likely feature Colorado vs. Kansas State or Baylor, depending on how the rest of the Big 12 slates come together on Saturday. That includes TCU vs. Cincinnati, Kansas vs. Baylor, Utah vs. UCF and WVU vs. Texas Tech.