Top picks from the CFB betting divisions for Saturday 30 November

Today we have a read College Football Week 14 slate in print with about 60 games to choose from. Let’s explore where the smart money is leaning with our VSiN CFB betting splits, which are updated every 10 minutes and come straight from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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Fresno State (6-5) just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 28-22 win over Colorado State, covering as 4-point home favorites. Conversely, UCLA (4-7) has lost two in a row and fell just short against USC 19-13, failing to cover as a 5-point home dog. This line opened with UCLA listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public tends to put points with UCLA at home. But despite receiving 54% of spread bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen UCLA drop from -9.5 to -7.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Fresno State plus the points as the line has moved drastically in their direction despite being the unpopular play. Fresno State receives only 46% of spread bets, but a whopping 67% of spread dollars, a stark contrarian “low stakes, higher dollars” betting anomaly. Fresno State has correlative betting value as a touchdown-plus dog in a low overall game (46.5), where the fewer expected points scored makes it harder for the top favorite to cover the number. Fresno State is also a “dog that can score” system game (27.8 PPG), thus keeping pace or backdoor coverage. UCLA has struggled on offense all season, averaging just 18.3 PPG. Fresno State also has a slight edge on defense, allowing 25 PPG while UCLA gives up 26.4 PPG. UCLA is just 1-4 at home. Fresno State is 2-3 on the road.

Texas (10-1, ranked No. 3) has won four straight and outrebounded Kentucky 31-14, but failed to cover as 18.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (8-3, ranked 20th) has lost two of its last three and fell to Auburn 43-41 in overtime, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as roughly a 5-point road favorite, with some books opening around -4.5 while others opening around -5.5. Regardless of the opening, the public thinks this line is far too short, and 65% of spread bets at DraftKings put points on the Longhorns. Early in the week we saw Texas rise as high as -6.5. But since then, we’ve seen nothing but a sharp Texas A&M buyback, dropping the line back to Texas -5.5. Some stores even drop as low as -4.5 on gameday. Essentially, all late movement breaks back against the Aggies plus the points. Texas A&M has notable contrarian value as they receive only 35% of spread bets in a heavily staked primetime game on ABC. At DraftKings, the Aggies receive only 35% of spread bets, but 44% of spread dollars. At Circa, Aggies receive 40% of spread bets, but 59% of spread dollars. Both books show a stark contrarian “low stakes, higher dollars” betting split in favor of the home dog. Texas A&M has buy-low value as a dog off a loss against a sell-high favorite off a win. As for the total, it opened at 48.5, rose to as high as 50, and has since fallen back to 48.5. Under receives 30% of bets but 52% of dollars at DraftKings, a remarkably sharp spread of bets.

Kansas State (8-3, ranked 24th) just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 41-15 win over Cincinnati, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Iowa State (9-2, ranked 18th) has won two straight and just edged Utah 31-28, but failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public rushes to the window to score points with the better-ranked Cyclones and short chalk at home. But despite receiving 65% of spread bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen Iowa State drop from -3 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line moves at Kansas State, as the line has shifted in their favor despite being the unpopular play. Kansas State receives just 35% of spread bets, but 44% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a stark contrarian bet split into a high-stakes primetime game on FOX. Kansas State has value as a conference dog, where the built-in familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team in scoring. The Wildcats are also a “short road dog” system match. Shortstops scoring 4 points or less are about 54% ATS over the last decade. With approx. 3 points awarded for home field advantage means the game would be about a pick’em at a neutral site. We’ve also seen some smart money hit below, dropping the total from 52.5 to 51.5. Under receives 33% of bets but 44% of dollars at DraftKings and 50% of bets but 62% of dollars at Circa, both of which qualify as stark “low stakes, higher dollars” stake splits. The outlook calls for low 20s with cloudy skies and 7-10 MPH winds.