Thanksgiving Day Anytime Touchdown Bets

• David Montgomery should find the end zone against the Bears: The Bears defense has struggled to stop the run in recent weeks. They rank in the bottom 10 in EPA allowable per rush and allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

• Devon Achane’s versatility makes him a good choice: Achane has completed six targets inside the 10-yard line, which is tied for 15th in the NFL.

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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions

The Bears defense has struggled to stop the run in recent weeks. They rank in the bottom 10 in EPA allowable per rush and allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

Now they face a Lions rushing attack that boasts the third-highest EPA per game. rush and the second-highest passing success rate in the NFL. Detroit also runs the ball 9% more than expected in the red zone, preferring to punt it on the ground.

Even with Jahmyr Gibbs take touches between the 20s, David Montgomery remains Detroit’s go-to red-zone back, outscoring Gibbs almost 2-to-1 in close situations. With the Lions having one of the highest team totals this week — and plenty of scoring opportunities — Montgomery is a strong bet to find the end zone in this Thanksgiving showdown.

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RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Achane has carved out a significant red-zone role for the Dolphins and boasts the league’s sixth-highest touchdown percentage on plays inside the 5-yard line.

Achane really stands out as a red zone receiving threat, as his six targets inside the 10-yard line are tied for 15th in the league. This complements his role as a runner and gives him more scoring opportunities than almost any other player in the NFL.

The Dolphins offense is well positioned to put up points against a Packers defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per carry. trials, EPA allowed per games and success rate allowed over the past several weeks. At even money, Achane’s heavy usage makes him an excellent bet to find the end zone.

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Long shot: TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs have been dominant this season, ranking first in the NFL in several key efficiency metrics, including yards allowed per carry. carry, rush success rate allowed and EPA allowed per rush.

This dominance has forced opponents to attack through the air, with Kansas City most vulnerable against tight ends. The Chiefs have surrendered the most yards in the league to the position.

Enter rookie Brock Bowers, a scoring machine who earns 27% of his routes. He’s also been a red-zone weapon and boasts one of the highest PFF grades on plays inside the 20-yard line.

With the Raiders expected to throw often while playing from behind, look for Las Vegas to take advantage of this matchup by targeting Bowers against a defense susceptible to tight ends.

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