Grocery expenses for Thanksgiving dinner are historically affordable

You might not know it by looking at sticker prices in the grocery aisles, but Thanksgiving dinner is more affordable than it has been in years.

The cost of this year’s holiday party – estimated at $58.08 for a gathering of 10 people, or $5.81 per person. capita – down 5% since last year, the lowest level since 2021, according to a nationwide survey of grocery prices by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents millions of American farmers. But the picture improves further when adjusted for inflation.

“If your dollar had the same overall purchasing power as a consumer in 1984 … this would be the cheapest Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey, excluding the 2020 outlier,” the authors wrote.

For many households, it doesn’t feel that way.

A defining feature of the post-pandemic recovery and the 2024 election is the divergence between Americans’ sour view of the economy and its underlying strength. Many shoppers understandably focus on price levels—the dollar value of the items they buy—rather than the inflation-adjusted or “true” cost of those purchases. The latter is the true test of affordability, as it reflects an often underestimated piece of the inflation puzzle: wage inflation.

And indeed, while Thanksgiving food prices have risen 19% since 2019, according to the AFBF, federal data show the median household salary grows by around 25% in the same period.

What’s more, “the average American also has to work fewer hours to buy the same meal than in previous years,” the report added. “Wages continued to grow faster after the COVID-19 pandemic, even as inflation cooled. Because average wages rose 4% from 2023 to 2024, it took 9% less work for us to pay for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.”

Of course, wage gains haven’t boosted all workers equally, and long-term expenses like housing and child care continue to push families up and down the income spectrum. While consumer confidence has risen in recent weeks, it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Still, the AFBF report said, “even with the dollar’s declining purchasing power, some of the items in our basket are at their long-term lows, even relative to the ‘current dollar price.’

Turkey, for example, is 6% cheaper than last year, despite bird flu knocking out part of the turkey stocks. Tighter availability usually drives prices up, but the Americans are eat about 1 pound less turkey person each year, reducing demand by more than enough to offset the supply impact.

Certain processed foods that may land on Thanksgiving tables are more expensive. Dinner rolls and cubed fillings each sell for 8% more than a year ago. On the flip side, sweet potatoes and whole milk have experienced the sharpest annual price declines, down 26% and 14% respectively. While fresh cranberry prices are up 12%, reversing an 18% fall the year before, they remain at their lowest level since 2015 — and when adjusted for inflation, they are on par with prices back in 1987, the report said.

These affordable gains are good news for inflation-weary shoppers, many of whom are increasingly focusing on value this year. Major consumer brands have been chasing bargain-hungry customers with price cuts and promotions for months. Some, such as Walmart and TJ Maxxexperience greater success than others, just like Target.

The wave of discounts has become more competitive heading into the holidays, and grocery retailers are no exception. Food eaten at home was only 1.1% more expensive last month than the same time last year, compared with overall consumer price inflation of 2.6%.

Both Target and Aldi have rolled out Thanksgiving deals at a lower price than last year. Target is offering a $20 Thanksgiving meal for fourincluding a small turkey, canned vegetables and stove stuffing mix. Aldi has a $47 meal plan for 10 peoplewhich it advertises as lower than 2019 prices. Walmart is promoting a “inflation-free Thanksgiving” 29-item meal that can serve eight people for $56. Amazon Fresh offers Thanksgiving discounts on turkey, sides and desserts, feeding six people for less than $5 each, plus additional savings for Prime members.

The flurry of promotions creates plenty of opportunities to comparison shop, experts say.

“I would just advise consumers to take a look at what these meals are made of,” said Robin Wenzel, head of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. “Don’t be afraid to check out more retailers.”

Some Thanksgiving meal kits offer more ingredients, but that may mean preparing more dishes from scratch. Others have fewer items but require less prep work. “Thanksgiving in many families is so personal,” Wenzel said, and the range of offerings allows consumers to tailor their grocery shopping to their gatherings.

One cost-cutting strategy is to buy stores’ own “private label” brands, which can save shoppers $17 on a Thanksgiving menu for 10, according to Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. Experts at Consumer Reports also recommend signing up to supermarket loyalty and cash-back programmes for extra savings, which often come with conveniences like virtual coupons in stores’ apps.

Ultimately, how much people pay for Thanksgiving dinner will also depend on geography. Households in the West, the most expensive region for holiday groceries, will spend on average around 18% more than those living in the South, where they are cheapest, AFBF estimates.