2024 NFL Thanksgiving schedule, picks, odds, injuries

The Week 13 schedule for the 2024 NFL season begins with a slew of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know for the holiday’s three matchups.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to each game, and analysis writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each contest. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each game, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes into the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X-factors, and three analysts — Moody, Walder and Kalyn Kahler — give us final scores for each game. Plus, we look at the best moments from each team’s Thanksgiving history.

Let’s start with the bears and lions, who meet on Turkey Day for the 20th time.

Jump to a matchup:
CHI-DET | NYG VALLEY | MIA-GB

12:30 PM ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IT -10 (48.5 O/U)

Bear’s story to watch: Wide receiver DJ Moore went from averaging 9.8 air yards per carry. targets in Weeks 1-10 to 1.9 after the Bears made Thomas Brown their offensive coordinator in Week 11. Moore caught all seven of his targets coming behind the line of scrimmage against the Packers and Vikings for 96 yards and a touchdown. He has generated 120 yards after the catch, a league high over the last two weeks. Detroit’s defense has allowed 4.3 yards per carry. targets on passes behind the line of scrimmage, which is the fourth-lowest average in the league, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. — Courtney Cronin

Lions history to watch: In a short week, can the Lions deliver their first Thanksgiving win since 2016? Although off to their best start in 90 years, Detroit will try to limit distractions during the annual holiday game as coach Dan Campbell’s message this week was to rest, recover and focus on the job at hand. The Lions have scored 40-plus points in three straight home games and will look to continue that pace. “We haven’t won on Thanksgiving in a while and that’s something we want to change,” quarterback Jared Goff said after Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. — Eric Woodyard

State to know: The Lions will be the seventh team in the past 40 seasons to play on Thanksgiving as the NFL’s top-scoring offense. Each of the previous six teams won their matches.

Bold prediction: Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson will intercept Goff. Johnson is having another great season, with 0.9 yards per carry. coverage snaps allowed, well below the 1.2 average for outside corners (per Next Gen Stats). — Walder

Injuries: Bears | Lions

Fantasy X Factor: Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit’s offensive line ranks 12th in run block win rate and the team is third in rushing attempts per game. With David Montgomery dealing with a shoulder injury on a short week, expect the Lions to lean on Gibbs even more. The Bears’ defensive front ranks 26th in run stop win rate, so Detroit’s ground game could have a big day. See rankings in week 13. — Moody

Game block: The Bears are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games and four of their last five games have gone under the total. Read more.

Kahler’s Choice: Lions 28, Bears 21
Moody’s Choice: Lions 30, Bears 17
Walder’s choice: Lions 27, Bears 20
FPI Prediction: IT, 76.2% (with an average of 11.0 points)

Thanksgiving Day Return: This is the second most common matchup on Thanksgiving Day after the Packers and Lions’ 22 meetings. Chicago leads the Thanksgiving series 11-8, including three straight wins in 2018, 2019 and 2021. Detroit last won in 2014, when Calvin Johnson recorded 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Caleb Williams improves under OC Thomas Brown … Cairo Santos takes blame for “stinking” with blocks … How the Lions went from perennial underdog to sportsbook’s worst enemy

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4:30 PM ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DAL -4 (37.5 O/U)

Giants history to watch: The Giants are reeling and on the verge of implosion. They have lost six straight and the players called their effort “soft” in Sunday’s 30-7 loss to the Buccaneers after the bye week. New York has been outscored 148-74 during that stretch and relied on former third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito last week. DeVito was sacked four times and is now a long shot to play Thursday because of a forearm injury. That puts Drew Lock in line for his first start with the Giants. — Jordan Raanan

Cowboys history to watch: Can they put together a winning streak? Can they actually win a game at home? The Cowboys last won two straight in Weeks 4 and 5 and have yet to win a game at AT&T Stadium this season. They have trailed by more than 20 points in each of their last six home games, including the playoffs, which is an NFL record. But this is the Giants coming off an embarrassing performance in Week 12. And the Cowboys have won seven straight against them at AT&T Stadium. — Todd Archer

State to know: Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II had nine sacks through Week 7, the most in the NFL. He has zero sacks since then, but one more would make him the third Giants player with double-digit sacks through 12 games in the past 15 seasons.

Bold prediction: Malik Nabers will record more than 90 receiving yards. He still has a 99 open score via ESPN’s receiver scoresthe highest possible, which means he does his job to get open — whether his quarterback can get him the ball or not. I think Lock starting is a good thing (over DeVito) for Nabers, especially after he complained about not getting a goal in the first half last week. — Walder

Injuries: Fighting | Cowboys

Fantasy X Factor: Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. In regular season games without quarterback Dak Prescott, Lamb has averaged 12.0 targets and 16.8 fantasy points per game. match. With Rush under center, he should get plenty of looks, especially since the Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their passes. See rankings in week 13. — Moody

Game block: Unders are 5-0 when Giants play teams with losing records this season. Read more.

Kahler’s Choice: Cowboys 17, Giants 12
Moody’s Choice: Cowboys 26, Giants 19
Walder’s choice: Cowboys 19, Giants 16
FPI Prediction: DAL, 52.6% (with an average of 1.2 points)

Thanksgiving Day Return: In 1993, Cowboys defensive tackle Leon Lett tried to recover a blocked field goal attempt. The ball was punted by Lett and recovered by the Dolphins at the 2-yard line. Miami connected on its next field goal attempt and won 16–14. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Eli Manning is destined for the Hall of Fame, but when? … Is the Cowboys’ wild win a springboard for a late playoff run? … Inside the wild, the Cowboys win against the Commanders

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8:20 PM ET | NBC/Universo/Peacock | ESPN BET: GB -3.5 (46.5 O/U)

Dolphins history to watch: The Dolphins are windless under coach Mike McDaniel in temperatures below 40 degrees – and the temperature in Green Bay is expected to drop below freezing. McDaniel said his team is well aware of the narrative surrounding its inability to play in cold weather. But Miami brings one of the most efficient offenses over the past month into this matchup. No NFL team has scored on a higher percentage of their drives since Week 8 than the Dolphins (56.3%). — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Packers history to watch: The Packers may have finally solved their red zone problems. They scored touchdowns on all five of their red zone drives (including three scores by Josh Jacobs) in Sunday’s win over the 49ers after ranking 27th in touchdown percentage inside the 20 before the game. Because the Dolphins rank seventh in red zone defense, this Thanksgiving contest could show whether that’s real or a fluke. — Rob Demovsky

State to know: The Packers forced three or more takeaways for the sixth time this season against the 49ers, the most in the NFL. They scored 22 points off turnovers, their most in a game since Week 17 of 2022.

Bold prediction: Dolphins edge Chop Robinson records two or more sacks. The rookie pass rusher has really come on strong lately. In Week 12, he led edge rushers in pass rush win rate for the second week in a row (42.1%). — Walder

Injuries: Dolphins | Packers

Fantasy X Factor: Dolphins running back De’Von Achane. He is crucial in this must-win game for Miami as it looks to get back into the AFC playoffs. Why not lean on one of its most dangerous playmakers? Achane has scored 20-plus fantasy points in four of his last five games. The Packers’ defense has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to running backs this season, making his dual-threat skill set especially valuable. See rankings in week 13. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Packers are 8-3 straight up and ATS in games when it’s 32 degrees or below under coach Matt LaFleur, including the playoffs. Read more.

Kahler’s Choice: Packers 28, Dolphins 27
Moody’s Choice: Packers 34, Dolphins 28
Walder’s choice: Packers 24, Dolphins 20
FPI Prediction: GB, 66.3% (with an average of 6.5 points)

Thanksgiving Day Return: This is just the third time the Packers have played at home on Thanksgiving. The other matchups were a 1923 win over the Hammond Pros and a 17-13 loss to the Bears in 2015. Against Chicago, Green Bay was stuffed on fourth-and-goal with 22 seconds left in regulation. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Tyreek Hill’s traffic citations dismissed after officers no-show … McDaniel suggests ‘tantrum’ to avoid Calais Campbell trade … Jacobs, rushing game gives Packers something to rely on