‘Moana 2’-led Thanksgiving box office could be the best in years

The domestic box office is poised for its biggest Thanksgiving haul since the pandemic thanks to a Polynesian princess, a couple of witches and a vengeful gladiator.

Disney’s “Moana 2” opens in theaters Wednesday and will generate between $120 million and $150 million in box office sales in the U.S. and Canada through Sunday. It is joined by Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramounts “Gladiator II,” both in their second week of domestic screenings.

Box office analysts believe the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday through Sunday, should easily clear $200 million in box office sales and could even become the second or third-highest Thanksgiving period in movie history.

“The trifecta of ‘Moana 2,’ ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ is a bona fide perfect storm for theaters this Thanksgiving,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “This era used to see big releases that were combined for all audiences, but that has been a challenge for the industry to replicate in the post-pandemic era so far. This year is very different with such a holy trinity of tentpole releases that could anchor some of the biggest all-around box office results the holiday frame has ever seen.”

The Thanksgiving holiday hasn’t topped $200 million since 2019, according to data from Comscore. Currently, the top-grossing Thanksgiving weekend 2018 slate is led by “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” which combined to generate $315 million in ticket sales. The second-highest haul for the holiday period was the $294.2 million secured in the same five-day period in 2013.

“Thanksgiving is arguably the most important holiday period of the year for movie theaters, as it sets the tone for the year-end box office sprint,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “The strength of the last few weeks of the year will determine the overall annual box office revenue and its perception as either a win or a loss for the industry.”

And Disney could use another animation win.

After ruling the Thanksgiving box office for years with titles from Pixar and Disney Animation, it has fallen short of expectations with its latest string of releases.

In 2016, “Moana” opened over the Thanksgiving holiday and generated $82.1 million. The following year, “Coco” took in $72.9 million during its opening, and in 2018, “Ralph Breaks the Internet” took in $84.8 million during its five-day debut. Just before the 2019 pandemic, “Frozen II” added $125 million over the Thanksgiving holiday after opening the week before to over $130 million.

Meanwhile, “Encanto,” which arrived amid the pandemic, managed to reach $40.6 million in 2021. “Strange World” flopped after pulling in just $18.9 million in the 2022 holiday period, and “Wish” caught a paltry $31.6. million in 2023. No Disney animated films were released over Thanksgiving in 2020.

However, “Moana 2” should surpass these post-pandemic releases. It hits theaters a year after the first movie was named the top-streamed movie aimed at kids and families. And audiences flocked to Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” over the summer. “Inside Out 2” opened to $154.2 million domestically and tallied more than $1 billion globally during its entire run.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, CNBC and Fandango. NBCUniversal distributed “Wicked.”