College Football Playoff: How many teams are still alive for the 12-team field?

The College Football Playoff selection committee released its latest rankings Tuesday night. Let’s just say there are plenty of teams still alive in the CFP hunt.

In all, we came up with 22 teams from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Group of Five with at least a reasonably viable path to the first-ever 12-team playoff.

Let’s take a look at who they are ahead of the final weekend of the 2024 regular season.

(Holden’s chances of creating the common fisheries policy, per ESPN’s Football Power Indexin brackets.)

BIG TEN

no. 1 Oregon (99.9%): The Ducks are 19-point favorites against Washington in their regular-season finale and are already locked into the Big Ten championship. They are included.

Ohio State no. 2 (99.4%): The Buckeyes, a three-touchdown favorite, must beat Michigan this weekend to punch their ticket to the Big Ten championship. Even if they somehow lose, wins over Penn State and Indiana would put Ohio State in the field.

no. 4 Penn State (98.8%): Beat Maryland and the Nittany Lions are not only in the field, but likely hosting a first-round game at Beaver Stadium. If Michigan upsets Ohio State, Penn State would be in play for a first-round bye via the Big Ten championship.

No. 10 Indiana (97.4%): Indiana was blown out at Ohio State in its only real test of the year. But it doesn’t look like it’s going to matter. The Hoosiers likely won’t host a game. But position no. 7 in record strength and no. 7 in game control nationally helps their cause tremendously.

SEC

No. 3 Texas (97.8%): The Longhorns must beat Texas A&M to reach the SEC title game. If they lose, they’ll probably still get in. But at 10-2 it would be a conversation.

No. 7 Georgia (90.8%): Even with losses to Ole Miss and Alabama, the Bulldogs are in the SEC championship game. And unless they get blown out, they’re probably in the field.

no. 8 Tennessee (75.2%): The Vols were the biggest CFP recipients of Alabama and Ole Miss lost last weekend. They don’t have a path to the SEC title game, but that’s OK. With where they are in the rankings, beating Vanderbilt in the finals would be enough.

No. 13 Alabama (37.2%): As annoying as it may be for non-SEC fans, three-loss Alabama is still in the mix. But the Crimson Tide, shut out of the SEC title game, need to beat Auburn and hope for mayhem ahead. Tennessee losing to Vanderbilt, Miami losing to Syracuse and Clemson losing to SMU in the ACC title game would be a start.

No. 15 South Carolina (24%): I’m a little confused about this. I suspect blowing out Clemson this weekend would boost the Gamecocks’ three-loss standing. But they lost to both Alabama and Ole Miss. I would imagine the committee would take one of those over South Carolina.

No. 20 Texas A&M (6.3%): The Aggies actually control their own destiny. Only two of their losses are in conference play. If they beat Texas, they are going to the SEC Championship. Beat Georgia, and Texas A&M is not only in the CFP but likely has a first-round bye. It’s just that the odds of beating Texas and Georgia are pretty slim.

No. 14 Ole Miss (6.1%): Again, it’s hard to believe a team with three losses is alive. But if Ole Miss gets the chaos we mentioned with Alabama and is compared to the Tide, the committee could take the team that beat Georgia more comprehensively and recently.

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no. 6 Miami (80.4%): I don’t necessarily agree with Miami being ranked ahead of SMU. But this is where the Hurricanes are, giving them a little more wiggle room if they beat Syracuse but lose to SMU in the ACC Championship. Win out and they get a first round bye.

No. 9 SMU (62.4%): The ACC has a good chance to be a two-bid league, but it would need the loser of the title game to play close. The Mustangs are already in the ACC championship game. But because of its potential high hopes, SMU can’t travel up against Cal this weekend.

No. 12 Clemson (24.2%): The Tigers have a path to the ACC title game and a first-round bye if Miami loses to Syracuse. They could also squeak into the field as a big player if they beat South Carolina and get some help further up the rankings.

BIG 12

No. 18 Iowa State (27.5%)

no. 19 BYU (25.8%)

Arizona State no. 16 (25.6%)

no. 25 Colorado (6.2%)

There are mayhem scenarios where West Virginia, Baylor and Texas Tech could get into the Big 12 title game. But if they pulled it off and won, would they really be one of the top five ranked conference champions? Probably not. So let’s focus on the teams with realistic CFP odds.

I’m not going to break down the head-to-head, three-way and four-way tiebreakers in the Big 12 between Iowa State, BYU, Colorado and Arizona State. Just know that all four teams are alive for a spot in the conference championship and thus alive for the CFP. Also know that when all four teams have two or three losses, the Big 12 will be a one-bid league.

GROUP OF FIVE

No. 11 Boise State (67.8%): The Broncos are the frontrunners in the Mountain West and among all G5 teams for a CFP berth. Wind out and we’ll see Ashton Jeanty.

No. 17 Tulane (25%): Tulane is far from dead. The Green Wave is an impressive 9-2 with a spot locked up in the AAC championship. If Tulane wins and beats Army in the title game — and Boise State loses — the Green Wave would have a good chance to get in.

no. 22 UNLV (16.5%): UNLV is still alive at 9-2. The Rebels were to beat Boise in the MWC Championship. And with their explosive offense, they can do it.

The Army (12.4%): Army’s only loss was to Notre Dame. Of course the Black Knights were rolled. However, if they win out with a 12-1 AAC title, they would be an attractive option outside of the MWC.

Also something to consider: There is a world where the big 12 are left out of the common fisheries policy. There are 256 different scenarios in play to determine who plays for the Big 12 title. So there is definitely a chance for a three-loss or even four-loss team to win it. That could mean the Big 12 winner isn’t one of the five highest-ranked conference champions — opening the door for another G5 team.

After last week’s set of games, here were my predictions for the first 12-team College Football Playoff.