Man City January transfer window: Golden touch under scrutiny

asked BBC Sport Paul McDonald from FootballTransfers.com to suggest where City can find value in the January transfer market, using their ‘estimated transfer value’ metric.

Football Transfers ETV is an algorithm that uses more than 600,000 historical transfers, 220,000 players and key metrics such as skill, potential, recent performances, competition level, contract length, position and age. It is designed as a guide to a player’s worth rather than an inflated market value.

Extenders:

Jonathan David (ETV £28.9m)

The Lille forward could be interesting. Once valued at well over £50m, he is out of contract next summer so should be available cheaply in January. The Canada forward has four Champions League goals from his first four games, plus seven goals in Ligue 1. He can play with or without Haaland if Guardiola were to change style, and is a genuine goal threat – something City are seriously lacking right now with their almost complete dependence on Haaland. Could they share the burden?

Omar Marmoush (ETV £18.8m)

The Egyptian is scoring goals and his value has doubled since the start of the season – if he continues this, it will double again by the end of the season. He can play across the front line. He is expected to leave Eintracht Frankfurt this season but – and it’s a big but – he’s 25 and this season is very much the exception in his career so far. It’s not uncharacteristic of City to target what you’d call ‘flavor of the month’ signings like this, but it’s also a situation they’ve rarely been in recently.

Liam Delap (ETV £27.5m)

The 21-year-old first signed for Ipswich from City in July on a five-year contract in a deal worth up to £20m. City are notoriously wary of inserting clauses into sales to ensure they get sale value and there will almost certainly be a buy-back clause in the contract too, although how much is hard to say.

Normally I would suggest that Delap’s sample size of six goals in 12 Premier League games would be too small for City to move to bring him back so quickly, but it is a slightly more desperate situation than they are used to. He would fulfill a similar role to David in that he would be a direct replacement for Haaland. But will City even replace Haaland? Do they think he can play every game? Maybe their focus is on other areas.

Defenders:

Ousmane Diomande (ETV £7.9m)

The 20-year-old Ivorian at Sporting would add physicality, something City have lacked of late. He has won more than 70% of his aerial duels in Portugal. City have shopped in Portugal before – Ruben Dias and Ederson – and there may be an opportunity in January now that Ruben Amorim has left. While sports players always command big fees, he has less experience at the top level, so while he will likely be more expensive than his low ETV, it could be a deal they could get done.

Pedro Porro (ETV £29.7m)

The Tottenham defender, 25, could be an option in the left field at right-back. City may look to bring him back to the club after initially signing him in 2019. Porro can play football – he does for Spurs – and he has Premier League experience. Has a fairly long deal until 2028, but his profile clearly suited City before and he’s only gained more experience since leaving for Sporting in 2022. But Tottenham won’t sell to a rival on the cheap – this fee would likely be too much for City to accept for. a player they let leave once before.

Midfield:

Carlos Baleba (ETV £19.7m)

The ETV for the latest Brighton midfielder off their production line will rise significantly again as he gains more experience at Premier League level.

The 20-year-old Cameroon international is more of a ball-carrier than someone like Rodri, and one of City’s problems has been his protection of the back four missing. But if City want a presence in the middle third, given how lackluster they have looked, he is an option. Given Brighton’s ability to extract value plus City’s urgency, they would likely demand a fee well above our current valuation. January is not a time when deals like this happen so I would be very surprised.

Samuele Ricci (ETV £12.8m)

The Torino and Italy midfielder could fill the Rodri void and has previously been linked with City. He’s 23, he’s got decent size to him and he’s OK in possession, although he’d have to scale up massively to fit into Guardiola’s system. His contract expires in 18 months hence his lower value. He has also never competed in Europe or played for Italy. Is this too big a step up?

Martin Zubimendi (ETV £32.9m)

The most likely midfield addition would probably be Real Sociedad’s Zubimendi. Liverpool triggered his £51.5m release clause this summer, only for the 25-year-old to reject the move.

He is Rodri’s replacement for Spain. Brilliant in possession, tenacious off the ball too and would restore some balance to the City midfield.

Who should be avoided?

As Manchester United have discovered in the past, being in a position in the market where you are reactive will put you on the back foot, and potentially making moves in January is always fertile ground for overpaying for a wrong fit.

As the January 2024 transfer window proved – with spending down to £715m. compared to 12 months earlier – teams are increasingly reluctant to make big deals in January. So some of the less valuable players here – while they would certainly pay over the odds – may be more palatable than going big mid-season.