Game Preview: Knicks at Nuggets, November 25, 2024

After kicking off their West Coast road trip with last Wednesday night’s 16-point offensive masterpiece against the Suns, it looked like the Knicks had turned a corner. But a few days later, they presented us with one of the worst games of the season in a 15-point loss to the Jazz, where Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges combined for just 46 points while going 17-52. from the field. And it ultimately reminded us once and for all that this team is still a work in progress.

Saturday night’s embarrassing loss to the 4-12 Jazz was by no means an encouraging sign, but the good news is that at least progress is being made. Fans would have been much more worried if there had been no improvements. New York may not be where they or their fans want them to be, but through 16 games we’ve already seen this team turn into one of the best offenses in the league and additions in the form of Mitchell Robinson, Deuce McBride and Precious Achiuwa should arrive at some point. The bad news, though, is that the defense is still bad – very bad. And that bad news will be amplified tonight as they head into Denver to face a Nuggets team that is 8-4 this season when Nikola Jokic, who recently returned from a brief absence, plays.

Unlike the Knicks, the Nuggets are a much more balanced team when it comes to both sides of the game. Offensively, they are second in assist percentage, sixth in pace, sixth in points per game (which is only one spot behind the Knicks), eighth in offensive ratingand 12. in both effective field goal percentageand true shooting percentage. All impressive numbers given their efficiency and explosiveness combined with their high pace. Defensively, contrary to what many assume, they have actually been solid. They rank sixth in opponent three-point percentageand free throw given up per match, 12th in defensive ratingand 14th in opponent field goal percentage. But context needs to be added, as their aforementioned high tempo has led them to rank below the Knicks in points allowed per game, despite the Knicks having a significantly worse defensive rating. Therefore, it will be imperative for both teams to try and control the tempo and play the game on their own terms – something that is often easier for the home side to do.

Projected starters

Once considered a borderline all-star, Jamal Murray has become something of an enigma. The Nuggets’ starting point guard is still a solid player capable of taking over a game, as evidenced by the 27-point game he had against the Grizzlies last week. But the injuries seem to have really taken their toll on the 27-year-old as he is average just 17.6 PPG, which would be his lowest mark since 2018, while shooting just 39.8% from the field this season.

With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope going to Orlando in the offseason, 23-year-old swingman Christian Braun has been thrust into the starting lineup, and he’s been incredible for them so far. Braun has been great defensively while improving as a shooter, leading to a jump in production as he average a career high of 16.2PPG, 5.1RPG, 1.3SPG and 0.7BPG while shooting an incredibly efficient 57.7% from the field and 46.7% from three.

Aaron Gordon, the usual starter, is out for the foreseeable future with a right calf strain. Peyton Watson has stared in his place. The third-year man from UCLA, like Braun, is enjoying a good start to the season in his new role and is average career highs across the board with averages of 10PPG, 3.7RPG, 1.3APG, 1.1BPG and 0.8SPG while shooting 47.1% from the field and 38.5% from three.

Starting at power forward, as usual, will be Michael Porter Jr., who has also seen a slight increase in production, with Gordon sidelined. Still only 26 years old, is the 6’10” forward average 18.6PPG, 7.1RPG and 3APG (double what he averaged last year), all of which are career highs.

Manning the center will be Nikola Jokic, who is putting up video game numbers right now. As if the three-time MVP wasn’t good enough, he’s somehow found another gear this season. Widely regarded as the best player in the world right now, the Serbian center is average an absurd 30.3PPG, 13.9RPG and 11.3APG while shooting 56.8% from the field and 56.3% from three.

Damage report

Denver: Peyton Watson (adductor) probable, Vlatko Cancar (knee) out, Aaron Gordon (calf) out, DaRon Holmes II (Achilles) out

New York: Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) questionable, Deuce McBride (knee) questionable, Mitchell Robinson (ankle) out, Precious Achiuwa (hamstring) out, Kevin McCullar Jr. (knee) out

Forecast

This is a tough game. There is no sugar coating. As you can see above, Denver has three players with career years, the best player in the world who plays near-perfect basketball at maximum efficiency, and the one “weakness” in the starting lineup is still a player capable of scoring 20+ points on any given night. New York has the unfortunate task of trying to handle all of that while playing in Denver, which is a difficult task no matter who is playing. This Knicks team, especially if Towns is a go, still has the talent on the offensive end to keep up with any team. A big night from Towns, and Brunson, paired with the way OG Anunoby has played on both ends of the floor could make this game interesting. That said, I just don’t see who or how the Knicks can slow down Jokic. Denver takes this one in a shoot-out, 130-120.

Game details

New York Knicks (9-7) vs Denver Nuggets (9-6)
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Date: 25 November 2024
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Clock: MSG Network, NBA League Pass
Follow: @ptknicksblog and bsky