Thanksgiving weather: A winter storm arrives with a side of the coldest air in months

CNN
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A storm and the first punch of winter-like cold will combine to cause Thanksgiving travel headaches across the eastern half of the United States as Mother Nature serves up a smorgasbord of sloppy weather.

The storm will roll through parts of the Midwest and South Wednesday night and spread across the East on Thanksgiving Day. At the same time, the cold air will flow into the US, as will customers clamoring for Black Friday deals.

The exact track of the storm is still unclear and will dictate which areas get holiday snow and which areas end up with a wet, sad mess. But two scenarios are at play, and in each there will be a disruptive storm for travelers at the last second.

The first scenario would see a storm develop in the Plains on Wednesday and intensify as it heads east. It would become quite a potent force Wednesday night as it spreads rain from the Midwest to the south.

It would take a turn to the northeast when it reaches the Appalachian Mountains and track along their spine on Thursday, where it may enter some cold, Canadian air before heading straight for the New England coast overnight.

This would deliver a round of heavy, wet snow to elevated areas of the Interior Northeast Thursday, while rain wets lower elevations.

Wind speeds would also increase Thursday in the east with widespread gusts up to 30 mph possible. Higher gusts are possible for areas closer to the coast, especially from the Carolinas to southern New England.

Gusts can disrupt both air and road travel for really last-minute travelers on Thanksgiving Day. The combination of wet weather and gusty winds can also bring down trees or power lines.

The storm would reach northern Maine Friday morning and leave the United States shortly thereafter. This would make for mostly dry but still windy weather for the east on Friday and into the weekend.

Another possible scenario would see the heaviest rain and the risk of wet snow largely move out of the Northeast, creating a much wetter Thanksgiving for the Mid-Atlantic instead.

The storm would develop late Wednesday night around the Mississippi or Tennessee valleys in this scenario. It would then slowly track through the mid-Atlantic through Thursday evening and reach the Atlantic on Friday morning.

This will bring more rain to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Thursday, while limiting the chances of drenching rain and accumulating snow in the Northeast.

But how close to the coast the storm lingers when it reaches the Atlantic on Friday will affect post-holiday travel.

A mix of rain and snow could develop in the Northeast and creep closer to the coast if the storm hugs the coast and tracks toward New England. This could make conditions a sloppy mess Friday at Boston-area airports and for people traveling along the nearby Interstate-95 corridor.

Wet weather would be minimal for these areas if the storm tracks further offshore on Friday.

A widespread flow of cold, Canadian air is coming to much of the United States, regardless of last week’s storm’s ultimate track.

Cool air will begin to filter into the northern states early this week before a significant push of winter-like air becomes widespread Thursday.

Chicago will struggle to reach the mid-30s on Thanksgiving Day — a temperature more appropriate for late December. Parts of North Dakota will barely reach the teens and will feel more like January.

Millions from coast to coast will be cold on Friday.

High temperatures as far south as the Gulf Coast will likely be 10 or more degrees below normal, and some places may not reach the 60s.

Many locations in the central and eastern United States will experience their coldest conditions so far this season over the weekend.

Philadelphia hasn’t recorded a high in the 30s since February, but could come close on both Saturday and Sunday. The same can be said about New York City.

A push of cold air later this week will also flip the switch on the Great Lakes’ lake-effect snowmaker. Cold, Canadian air rushes overhead record hot Lakes will set the stage for lake-effect snow that may continue into next week for some areas.

Cold air will persist across much of the East as the calendar turns to December and could last through the first week of the new month, according to forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center.