Chiefs, Lions Team Top Seed

On By Littum

The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions are very different, and yet they are the same.

Kansas City has constantly had to hold on to late-game leads, while Detroit has rolled one team after the next. And yet both are 10-1 and no. 1 seed in their respective conferences.

Meanwhile, there was a change in the NFC playoff picture, with the Seattle Seahawks jumping into the No. 3 seed after beating the Arizona Cardinals, who went from that spot all the way out of the playoffs with a single loss.

This is how everything looks in both conferences, updated up to the second one.

Additionally all playoff probabilities courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

AFC: WHO’S IN

Record: 10–1, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff Probability: 99%

Kansas City was able to fend off the pesky Carolina Panthers on Sunday, giving it an AFC-best 10 wins. A short week lies ahead for the Chiefs, who host the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday.

Record: 9–2, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff Probability: 99%

The Bills had the week off. A big three-game stretch looms with the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions coming up in Orchard Park.

Record: 8–3, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff Probability: 88%

After entering the first-seed conversation, the Steelers lost in the snow to the Cleveland Browns. Next up are the Cincinnati Bengals, who are clinging to life at 4-7.

Record: 7–5, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff Probability: 95%

After a convincing win in Dallas on Monday night, Houston was upset by the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. CJ Stroud & Co. has a two-game lead in the AFC South but appears headed for the fourth seed.

Record: 7–3, runner-up, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff Probability: 91%

Los Angeles will look to stay in that spot with a win Monday night over the Baltimore Ravens while also opening a two-game lead in the loss column with a tiebreaker in hand.

Record: 7–4, runner-up, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff Probability: 95%

The Ravens have a chance to close the gap in the AFC North while also leapfrogging the Chargers with a win at SoFi Stadium on Monday night.

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix

Bo Nix passed for 273 yards and two touchdowns in Denver’s win over Las Vegas on Sunday. / Stephen R. Sylvania-Imagn Images

Record: 7–5, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff Probability: 60%

Denver took care of the Raiders in Las Vegas, giving it a second straight win before returning home to host the Browns on Monday night. The Broncos still have the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals on their schedule, and the biggest games are easily left.

IN THE HUNT

Miami Dolphins (5-6): The Dolphins beat the New England Patriots on Sunday behind Tua Tagovailoa’s four touchdown passes. Miami will face the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving Day.

Indianapolis Colts (5–7): Anthony Richardson struggled in a loss to the Detroit Lions. Despite being two games under .500, Indianapolis has a very good shot at the playoffs with a soft schedule the rest of the way.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-7): Cincinnati is likely to win. It won’t be easy with two games left against the Steelers, starting this weekend.

NFC: WHO’S IN

Record: 10–1, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff Probability: 99%

The Lions appear to be the best team in football. Detroit took on a gutsy Colts team and handled them with ease, allowing just six points. Still, there’s no respite with Detroit just one game up in the NFC North.

Record: 9–2, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff Probability: 99%

The Eagles visited the Rams on Sunday night and won going away with the help of another Saquon Barkley masterpiece. Combined with Washington’s loss to Dallas, the NFC East feels all but locked up.

Record: 6–5, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff Probability: 23%

Seattle lost five of six before earning two big division wins over the 49ers and Arizona Cardinals the past two weeks. With these wins, the Seahawks moved into the third seed and held a tiebreaker over the Atlanta Falcons for the spot.

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff Probability: 83%

Atlanta had its bye week and comes out of the break facing the Chargers and Minnesota Vikings the next two weeks.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold threw for 330 yards and two touchdowns in Minnesota’s overtime win over Chicago on Sunday. / Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

Record: 9–2, runner-up, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 5

Playoff Probability: 98%

The Vikings remain just one game behind the Lions in the NFC North while remaining the top team in the NFC wild-card picture after a 30-27 overtime win over the Chicago Bears.

Record: 8–3, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff Probability: 93%

Green Bay handled the injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers with ease and went on to make a playoff push. The Packers now have a short week with Miami coming to Green Bay on Thursday.

Record: 7–5, runner-up, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff Probability: 73%

Free fall in Washington? The Commanders have now lost three games in a row, with a loss to the sluggish Dallas Cowboys being the worst of them all.

IN THE HUNT

Arizona Cardinals (6-5): Arizona went to Seattle and managed just six points. The Cardinals will try to rebound this coming weekend against the Vikings in Minnesota.

Los Angeles Rams (5–6): The Rams lost to the Eagles on Sunday night, dropping them a game back of the Seahawks in the NFC West.

San Francisco 49ers (5-6): This could be the end of San Francisco. The Niners have been ravaged by injuries to Brandon Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, Brock Purdy and Trent Williams. Next, Buffalo.