Run game must travel

FRISCO, Texas – The Cowboys hit the road on Sunday to face a rejuvenated Washington Commanders franchise led by their former defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn. Can Dallas snap their five-game losing streak against their old friend? Let’s dive into how they could in this week’s “Here We Goooo:”

1. Take Jayden Daniels’ leg out of the equation

A big part of Washington’s resurgence to this point in the season has been their 2024 draft class, led by second overall pick Jayden Daniels, who has had a strong start to his NFL career. A year removed from winning the Heisman at LSU, Daniels has used both his arm and his legs to get the Commanders offense going in his rookie year.

However, that hasn’t been the case recently after Daniels suffered a rib injury in Week 7 against the Carolina Panthers that sidelined him for the rest of the game. He would return next week but has not been himself in the four games since the injury, especially on the ground.

In the six games Daniels was injured, he completed 75.3% of his passes and ran 63 times for 322 yards and four touchdowns. In the four games following his injury, Daniels completed just 59.5% of his passes and ran the ball 26 times for 110 yards and no touchdowns.

Washington’s offense has also seen a downward trend over the past four games, going from scoring 29.6 points per game before Daniels’ injury down to 22.5 over the last four games, including back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. The offense generated a league-best +90.6 EPA through the first eight games of the season, but that number has dropped to -7.8 in their last three games. Daniels’ running game opens up so much for the offense and having that taken away has changed things.

That being the case, the Cowboys need to have Daniels beat them with his arm on Sunday, especially if his completion percentage hovers around the 59.5% average it has been the last four games. When Daniels has used his legs often, he’s added as much as a +33.5 EPA for the Commanders this season, so it’s crucial for Dallas to push that out of the equation.

2. The time to establish the race is now

Yes, I know the Cowboys have the second lowest rushing yards per game in the NFL this season. So how could this be a game where they could start opening things up?

Remember, Dallas has played six of the nine best defenses in the NFL this season. On Sunday, they face a Commanders defense that has given up the most rushing yards of any team in the NFL (1,655) and is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game. match (149.9). Rico Dowdle was held in check last week by the Texans (who have the 9th^th lowest rushing yards allowed per match in the league), so this is the week to get things going.

If we look at what kinds of runs could open up for Dowdle and the Cowboys, look for it to be outside. Washington has given up 898 yards and nine touchdowns on outside runs this season, also allowing 5.8 yards per carry. carry. Dowdle is averaging 4.1 yards per carry. carries on those runs, though only 31 of them for 128 yards.

Dowdle has also been better at running after contact, averaging 3.1 yards after first contact from a defender. The Commander defense is giving up 2.8 yards after contact on average, which should work in Dowdle’s favor.

It’s a steep hill to climb for Dallas’ running game, which has generated a league-worst -143 rushing yards over expectations in 2024, but if there’s any struggle to lean on the run, as Mike McCarthy has said, he wanted, this game is to do it.

3. Cooper Rush must be accurate

Cooper Rush’s second start to the season was much better than his first, but he’ll need to play better — and throw the ball more accurately — if he wants to lead the Cowboys to wins this season.

Rush threw the ball 55 times in Dallas’ Monday night loss to the Texans, completing 32 of those attempts for 354 yards. On 22.2% of his throws this season, he’s thrown into tight windows, the highest rate in the league among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this year. He has completed seven passes on 26 attempts in those windows for 72 yards. The positive spin there is is the Commanders defense has given up a league-leading five touchdowns on tight window throws, so that could ultimately work in the Rush’s favor.

The fact that Rush and even Dak Prescott, who threw the second-highest percentage of tight window throws this season, have had to make those kinds of plays speaks to the lack of separation Dallas’ wide receivers are getting. At the same time, though, the Cowboys are only targeting open downfield receivers on 4.9% of their attempts this season, the second-lowest rate in the league. “Open downfield” is defined as a wide receiver that has 3 or more yards of separation and a throw that travels 10 or more air yards. When Dak Prescott played, he completed all 15 of his attempts in that category for 291 yards and five touchdowns. Rush, on the other hand, is three for five with 51 yards and an interception.

On throws over 10 yards this season, Rush has completed just four of his 20 attempts in the two games he’s started this season for a -24.1% above-projected completion percentage. That’s 9.9% lower than any other qualified quarterback this season. Dallas doesn’t necessarily need to push the ball downfield with the Rush, but they also can’t become overly dependent and predictable in the short field.